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News flash! Citigroup (finally) downgrades housing stocks

Why does it seem that Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is late to the homebuilding slump? Because they are. The housing sector has been in the dumps for months now and yet only this morning did Citigroup downgrade stocks in the sector. Citigroup downgraded D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE: DHI), Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (NYSE: HOV), KB Home (NYSE: KBH), Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN), Pulte Homes Inc (NYSE: PHM), Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE: TOL) and The Ryland Group Inc (NYSE: RYL) to Hold from Buy as they believe "shares will remain range-bound through the rest of the year."

Let's recap:

KB Home: The company reported a second quarter loss and sales hit three-year lows. The loss was partly due to land value-related charges that highlighted the continued decay of the U.S. housing market. The company also said it was unable to provide investors with a full-year earnings forecast and couldn't say when they thought conditions would improve.

Lennar: Reported a Q2 loss. The company said market conditions had eroded so much that it's not trying to limit its losses for the year.

Pulte Homes: In response to the "challenging operating environment that continues to exist in the U.S. homebuilding industry," the company announced a restructuring plan designed to reduce costs and improve operating efficiencies in May.

Get the picture? Here's one more:

Ryland Group: Reported a Q1 loss in April and said it wouldn't be able to provide new guidance due to the slump in the housing market.

See a pattern? Homebuilder after homebuilder, it's the same story -- company faces challenging housing market, company loses money, tries to regain profitability. You'd think Citigroup would have noticed.

Aside from the companies themselves, other firms and analysts have said their piece about the sector. March data showed sales of existing homes fell to a four-year low. In April, Census Bureau data showed there were 2.5 million vacant non-seasonal housing units for sale, way over many firms' predictions. Additionally, AG Edwards said on April 30th that "it is not a good time to buy shares yet." Standard & Poor's said in May that they believed over a third of all U.S. homebuilders were "vulnerable to rating downgrades" in the midst of a "three-year downturn."

This is not news. Maybe Citigroup just missed it.

Rumors, scandals and investigations at Beazer

Beazer Homes USA Inc (NYSE: BZH): House of Cards?

Home builder Beazer said in a regulatory filing yesterday that it terminated its Chief Accounting Officer for violating the company's ethics policy. Beazer said it fired Michael T. Rand after an internal probe of the company's mortgage origination business. The Atlanta-based company said the action was taken by its board and management after saying Rand violated the company's ethics policy by attempts to destroy documents.

The country's sixth largest home builder is currently under investigation by the FBI and is the subject of several lawsuits. Earlier this year, media reports noted that the company was under federal investigation for alleged mortgage fraud, a charge Beazer has vehemently denied. In May, it announced the SEC was conducting an informal inquiry to determine if the company, or its employees, had violated any securities laws.

Rand's firing is bad news for the Atlanta company, particularly because of the FBI investigation. JP Morgan analyst Michael Rehaut said that Rand's termination "raises red flags regarding the content of the documents in question." It is unclear whether the allegations against Rand will become part of the investigation.

Rand is the second senior official to be fired at Beazer this year. The company dismissed Kenneth Gary, its general counsel, in February for "a pattern of personal conduct" that included violations of company policies. Former CFO James O'Leary resigned from Beazer in March. Shares of the company, whose competitors include D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE: DHI) and Pulte Homes, Inc (NYSE: PHM), fell nearly 8% on yesterday's announcement; shares have fallen more than 40% this year.

Who's responsible for the company's troubles? Rand, the others, or is the company looking for scapegoats?

2007 will suck, all 12 months? So says DR Horton CEO

Were you watching CNBC after the market close today? If so, you may be cancelling your plans to sink all your home's equity into a big remodel. In an unusually frank and sober prediction, D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) CEO Donald Tomnitz told the audience of millions of market watchers that "2007 is going to suck, all 12 months."

David Gaffen from the Wall Street Journal's MarketBeat blog was watching, and he wonders if it's not just a reaction to D.R. Horton's not-exactly-stellar stock performance. Though only down a penny today to $24.55, the stock is off 20% since its February 2, 2007 high near $31 -- a rough month, indeed.

The good news (sort of)? Tomnitz thinks 2008 will be better. Not good. Better than the suck-icious 2007, at least. Is this a case of let's-give- the-worst-case-projection-and-hope-no-one-blames-me-when-it- happens? Or is it really true? Either way, the homebuilder's stock isn't doing any better since his words; it's down over a percent in after-hours trading.

I, for one, won't bail out of the market but I think I'll wait to refinance... with this kind of talk, the only thing I see on the horizon is cheaper interest rates. And I'm certainly not going to hire Donald to run pep rallies anytime soon.

Analyst downgrades 11-7-06: Microsoft, D.R. Horton, OSI downgraded

MOST NOTEWORTHY: OSI Restaurant Partners (OSI), D.R. Horton (DHI) and Microsoft (MSFT) top today's list of downgrades.

  • OSI Restaurant Partners, Inc. (NYSE:OSI) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Oppenheimer.
  • The firm believes the $40 bid is fair and the risk/reward of waiting for a deal outweighs the potential modest increases of other bids. D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) was downgraded to Sell from Buy at Merrill Lynch. They expect 2007's outlook to be a negative catalyst for the homebuilder.
  • Bank of America resumed coverage of Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) with a Neutral, below their previous rating of Buy. They believe Microsoft's core earnings drivers are not all Vista-related and that given the company's valuation, sees few near-term catalysts to drive shares higher.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • C.E. Unterberg downgraded Netease.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES) to Market Perform from Buy, citing a lack of near-term growth drivers after reporting weak Q3 results.
  • Himax Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:HIMX) was downgraded to Sell from Buy at Merrill Lynch also following the company's Q3 results.
  • Tribune Company (NYSE:TRB) was downgraded at A.G. Edwards to Hold from Buy. The firm said shares are trading based on a sale of the company. They believe downside risk is valued at $26-$29 with no sale and upside as much as $40 a share if the company was sold.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 04:58 AM

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