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Before the bell 1-31-07: Fed, data, earnings -- stock futures lower

Stock futures are negative in early morning, pointing to a similar start for stocks ahead of a busy day. Today, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate policy and GDP reading will be reported. In addition, Altria Group (NYSE:MO), Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA), and Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX) are scheduled to report before the open, while Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) after the close.

A slew of economic data will be released today. At 8:30 a.m., before the opening bell, fourth quarter gross domestic product, a measure of economic activity and growth, as well as employment cost index are due. Economists forecast an annual rate of 3% growth for the GDP, compared with 2% the previous quarter. ECI is expected to have grown by 1%, same as Q3.

At 9:45 a.m. EST, the Chicago PMI, a regional manufacturing survey for the month of January, will be reported and at 10:00 a.m. December construction spending is due.

At 10:30 a.m., weekly crude inventories will be released. Oil prices fell today, ahead of the report, which was expected to show higher gasoline stockpiles but a drop in distillates such as heating oil.

At 2:15 p.m. EST, Bernanke will read the Federal Reserve's statement regarding its decision on monetary policy and interest rates. While it is widely expected the Fed would leave rates unchanged, the statement can still cause the market to stir as investors look for clues of future rate moves.

In corporate news:

US Airways Group (NYSE:LCC) CEO Doug Parker said the offer his company made for Delta Air Lines (OTC:DALRQ) will expire after the latter emerges from bankruptcy protection.

Allstate Corp (NYSE:ALL) dropped 2.5% in after-hours trading last night after reporting a weaker fourth quarter.
Vodafone Group (NYSE:VOD) rose nearly 2% in London after reporting third quarter financial results.

Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE:LLY) reported a sharply lower fourth-quarter profit. Net income plunged to $132.3 million, or 12 cents per share, on revenue of $4.25 billion, a 9% rise. Excluding one-time items, Lilly earned $929.6 million, or 85 cents per share. Wall Street expected 82 cents per share on revenue of $4.08 billion, according to a Thomson Financial poll.

Alcan Inc. (NYSE:AL) returned to profit it its fourth quarter. Net income was $422 million, or $1.13 a share in the quarter. Analysts were looking for Alcan to earn $1.30 a share in the latest fourth quarter, before exceptional items, according to Reuters Estimates.

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX) reported a 30% rise in fourth-quarter profit. Net income rose to $1.75 billion, or 44 cents per share on an 8% revenue increase to $12.5 billion. Excluding special items quarterly profit was 22 cents. Results matched analysts polled by Reuters Estimates expectations of profit and beat the $12.35 billion revenue estimate.

Altria Group Inc. (NYSE:MO) is expected to report earnings per share of $1.22 for the fourth quarter, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.
Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) is expected to post earnings per share of of 98 cents for the fourth-quarter.

Juniper Networks Inc. (NASDAQ:JNPR) is down more than 7.5% in pre-market trading after reporting a 4% increase in fourth quarter revenue but giving a disapoinging forecast. The stock was downgraded from Strong Buy to Market Outperform by JMP Securities.

SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK) is also down in pre-market, more than 9%. The company reported a quarterly loss.

Newspaper wrap-up 1-30-07: Sony blames PS3 for profit shortfall

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that Saudi Arabia is cutting oil output by an additional 158,000 barrels a day, part of a broader campaign by OPEC to shrink inventories and shore up prices.
    • Also in the Journal, Delta Air Lines (OTC: DALRQ) said that if it defeats U.S. Airways Group Inc's (NYSE: LCC) hostile takeover it won't rule out possibly merging with another airline.
  • The Financial Times Deutschland (subscription required) reported that Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) is in talks with Gazprom over a joint development.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • The Economic Times noted that Standard & Poor's raised India's debt rating to investment grade for the first time in 14 years on the strength of record growth and foreign exchange reserves.
  • The New York Times wrote that Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) profits fell on losses for PlayStation 3 as the company faulted a strategic decision to set the price of PS 3 below the cost of production as a way to bolster market share.
  • The Investor's Business Daily's "New Issue America" column highlighted Mellanox Technologies, a tech startup that is expected to come public the week of February 5 with an offering price of $12-$14.

US Airways ups the ante for Delta

US Airways Group Inc. (NYSE: LCC) is trying to pull out all the stops in its attempted hostile takeover of Delta Air Lines Inc. by lifting its offer by $1 Billion.

In order for the offer to get lifted, US Airways wants the official committee to request Delta to open itself up for due diligence by US Airways, to have a bankruptcy judge to postpone a hearing next week on Delta's restructuring plan and agree to support the start of a formal antitrust review.

The committee of Delta creditors will have until Thursday to decide if it wants to proceed with the US Airways offer. For now, I would be willing to bet that Delta is not going to go for this current offer and instead decide to follow the advice of its chief executive, Gerald Grinstein, who has repeatedly insisted the airline would be better off to emerge from bankruptcy-court protection on its own later this year

The main reason behind the raise in the current offer can be traced to a meeting between US Airways and some Delta creditors who aren't part of the official committee that advised the Airliner to increase its current bid by $2 billion. Will this be enough to sway some votes in US Airways favor? I doubt it, but we should get a better picture of the current takeover situation over the next few days.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

Newspaper wrap-up 1-29-07: Verizon passed on iPhone

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • A full page advertisement by CVS Corporation (NYSE: CVS) in this morning's Wall Street Journal (subscription required) warned Caremark Rx Inc (NYSE: CMX) shareholders that their "[investments] would be at risk" under Express Scripts' (NASDAQ: ESRX) proposal and recommended the CVS/Caremark merger. Also in the Journal:
  • The Financial Times (subscription required) featured articles on News Corporation (NYSE: NWS) and Corus Group ADS (NYSE: CGA).
OTHER PAPERS:
  • USA Today wrote that two years ago, Verizon Communications' (NYSE: VZ) Verizon Wireless turned down the opportunity to be the exclusive distributor of the iPhone in the U.S. because of Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) financial terms and other demands.
  • Investor's Business Daily's "New America" column mentioned Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (NASDAQ: USAP) positively, writing that Universal is looking to expand abraod with little foreign competition. The specialty steel products company focuses on the aerospace and power industries and named Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) as a key customer.

Airline consolidation means higher ticket prices

The cost of flying will continue to rise. Airline mergers are coming fast and furious as the year draws to a close. I think it's too late to avoid the deal risks of a merger-resistant Democratic Congress before January. Nevertheless there's a major airline merger trend underway: Continental Airlines, Inc. (NYSE: CAL) wants to combine with UAL Corp.'s (NASDAQ:UAUA) United Airlines, US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE: LCC) is trying to buy Delta Airlines Inc. (OTC: DALRQ), Airtran Holdings (NYSE: AAI) is going after Midwest Express Group (AMEX: MEH), and private equity firms are trying to acquire Qantas Airways Ltd.

This merger wave will be bad for consumers. The fewer the number of airlines left standing, the less the competition. And the less competition, the higher the price the airlines can charge you and I. Antitrust laws are designed to encourage competition and to prevent such consumer-damaging consolidation. But it's likely that the incoming Congress will scrutinize this matter more closely than the current one.

Why the flurry of mergers? There are two major operating costs in the airline business -- jet fuel and labor. While airlines can use hedging to limit increases in jet fuel prices, there's not a huge amount that can be done to reduce them. By contrast, some companies, such as US Air, have been extremely effective at lowering labor costs by filing for bankruptcy and ripping up contracts with pilots, attendants and other workers, and resetting pay at much lower levels.

The proposed mergers will lower labor and other costs further and with fewer choices available for consumers, the airlines will earn nice profits on the spread between the lower costs and the higher prices they can charge. While airline shareholders may benefit, consumers will suffer.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm, and a Professor of Management at Babson College. He has no financial interest in Airtran, Continental, Delta, Midwest Express Qantas, or US Air.

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Will nurse-in protests hurt Delta's stock? (And, should I go?)

portland airportI'm a breastfeeding mama, my little guy is almost 19 months old and not showing any signs of wanting to wean. I nurse him in public whenever it's required (i.e.: whenever he's tired or fussy and a little warm milk will keep the volume down for a bit). Along with lots of other modern moms, I was pretty peeved when I heard the story of Emily Gillette, escorted off a Freedom Airlines flight because she wouldn't put a blanket over her breastfeeding daughter's head. (After a three-hour delay. At 10 p.m. In the window seat. In the second-to-last row. !!)

Freedom Airlines, which operates a Delta Connection line, is now saying they offered to reboard Emily and family after having a ticket agent come to usher them off the plane -- in an email to me, she disputes that claim, and is even more angry that the airline is calling her a liar (she had already claimed that the airline wouldn't let her fly until the next day).

Tomorrow morning at 10 a.m. local time, nurse-ins are planned at Delta ticket counters in many cities. Although the stock has fallen from the high just-post the US Airways bid, it was up 14 cents, or 11%, to $1.40 today. Will these nurse-ins have much effect on a stock already pummeled with the effects of the company's ongoing bankruptcy? I love that public breastfeeding is becoming a headline-y cause. But do protests like nurse-ins effect the companies against which they are targeted?

Even more importantly, should I go to my local nurse-in at the Portland International Airport? Do protests do anything for the world other than employ photographers and the writers of sensational evening news leadins? Are protests a valuable way to express your power over the economy, or just screaming (angrily, and with really cute babies) into the wind?

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+68.5312,869.76
NASDAQ+27.342,931.22
S&P 500+9.501,352.14

Last updated: February 13, 2012: 04:00 PM

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