
Last week, commodity and company earnings sent some seriously mixed signals.
Gold, historically a pretty good indicator of excess money flowing through the economy, took off, jumping over $20 an ounce. Gold has been in a tight trading range the past year or so, a sign that Fed policy was correct by halting rate increases. However, it is tough to read what last week's rally was all about.
Housing data, conversely, an important component of the overall economy, was simply awful. Reports from the home improvement retailers -- Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) -- were exceptionally weak, with same store sales down 5% to 11% depending upon the month you wanted to look at.
However, macro data such as employment and wage growth remain good, but employment is a lagging, not a leading, indicator.
With that said, in addition to gold, a lot of other commodities took off during the week.
In the tech world, semiconductors, one of the most hypersensitive economic indicators, fundamentals have been deteriorating since November 2006 and there is little evidence this market has bottomed.
Signals are too confusing to be comfortable with the market. Most indexes have had great rallies since the fall. It is time to take some money off of the table. There is little evidence that 1st quarter earnings will be that good.
In addition, another consideration is a seasonal factor. The Fed tends to add more money to the economy in the second half of the year and slows down money supply growth in the first half of the year. This is a reason why the market's performance tends to be weakest during the April through September time period and stronger from October through March.
These mixed signals tell me to start pruning your portfolio. We are in for a bumpy ride and it will be nice to have some cash on the sideline to do some buying when market volatility and investors' fear increases.