This week, some of the top veterans in private equity -- TPG's David Bonderman, Carlyle's David Rubenstein, and KKR's George Roberts -- got together at a conference in Hong Kong. And, all in all, it was fairly depressing (hey, I guess that's what happens when you lose billions and billions of dollars).

Take Bonderman. He thinks the downturn will be protracted, calling it an L-shaped recession (the more common description is a V-shaped recession, which means there is a strong snapback). In fact, he thinks U.S. unemployment will hit 10% or so.

Then again, keep in mind that Bonderman lost about $1.3 billion on his six month investment in Washington Mutual.

Despite all this, Bonderman still has an appetite for investments. For example, he's focusing on the debt securities from hedge funds. Because of massive redemptions, the prices are at distressed levels.

Rubenstein also gave a grim presentation (he thinks the downturn can last several years). But, he is still bullish on some opportunities, especially in Asia. For example, he thinks China offers some compelling valuations and that the country may become more open to outside investments.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website.

Private equity's top guns remain glum ... but still finding deals originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 16 Nov 2008 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

When getting the pulse on the credit markets, the private equity firms have a good sense of things. Credit is the lifeblood of the business. And, of course, the credit freeze has essentially stopped private equity activity.

But, according to some veteran private equity dealmakers, it does look like things are stabilizing. For example, the Blackstone Group LP's (NYSE: BX) CEO, Stephen Schwarzman, is optimistic that the environment is improving. The main reason: the massive government interventions.

And, this week we also got KKR's chief, Henry Kravis, to chime in. However, his sentiments are somewhat qualified. After all, he thinks that the real economy is in a fragile state and that investor confidence is still a big problem. What's more, he believes that it will take awhile for growth to comeback.

In the meantime, Kravis predicts a surge in consolidation in the financial services industry. Interestingly enough, some of the leaders in this trend could be operators like Blackstone and KKR, which don't have leveraged balance sheets.

Emphasizing this point is another private equity bigwig, the Carlyle Group's David Rubenstein. According to him, there's a huge opportunity for private equity firms to provide capital to the ailing financial services industry. In fact, the Federal government has recently relaxed some of the investment rules for such deals, which should make returns even more lucrative and give dealmakers more incentive to get transactions done.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website

Private equity's bigwigs zero-in on deals originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Oct 2008 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

About a year ago, the rage in private equity was the so-called megabuyout. It seemed like no company was immune. There was even talk of $100 billion dollar deals.

Of course, the credit crunch ended the megabuyout. In fact, it ended most of the activity for private equity folks.

Yet, according to the co-founder of the Carlyle Group, David Rubenstein, things are perking up [subscription required]. His firm - like other veterans, such as The Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) - understands market cycles. After all, these players have dealt with variety of credit crunches, such as in 1991-1992, 1998 and 2001-2002.

So, Rubenstein predicts we'll see a pick-up in deals over the next few months. Although, the deals are likely to range from $2 billion to $4 billion -- with less debt. And expect more foreign deals.

Funny enough, Rubenstein seems to be leading the charge with its recently announced a $2.54 billion deal for a majority stake in Booz Allen Hamilton.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

Carlyle's Rubenstein sees private equity revival originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 May 2008 10:33:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This week, the cofounder of the Carlyle Group, David Rubenstein, paid $21.3 million for a copy of the Magna Carta. In an offbeat way, is this a sign of optimism for the private equity space?

Well, today Rubenstein gave an interview with CNBC. Basically, he thinks there are some compelling investment opportunities - especially in energy, healthcare, and financial services. What's more, he's bullish on emerging markets. He's not only excited about China but even Africa and the Middle East. For example, in Africa, Rubenstein thinks there are opportunities for mining/minerals, financial services, and telecom.

Although, things may be remain somewhat slow in terms of deal activity, at least in the US, Rubenstein thinks sellers may be in denial on valuations. Also, to get deals done, private equity funds will probably need to pony up more equity. But, with the huge amounts of capital in these funds, that shouldn't be hard to do.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

CNBC: Carlyle's Rubenstein talks up private equity originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Dec 2007 18:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It's been fairly slow for private equity dealmakers lately. So what to do? How about spend $21.3 million for the Magna Carta?

Well, that's what Carlyle's co-founder, David Rubenstein, did yesterday at Sotheby's.

Actually, Rubenstein is a political junkie. Rubenstein served as deputy domestic policy advisor in President Carter's White House. His political savvy has been a nice complement to his dealmaking.

Of course, the Magna Carta is an amazing document, which helped to spark revolutions, such as free speech and even capitalism.

The good news is that Rubenstein isn't going to have the document as an ornament for his office. Instead, he plans to lend it to the National Archives.

The prior owner was the outspoken billionaire, Ross Perot, who purchased the document in 1983 for a mere $1.5 million.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

Carlyle Group's David Rubenstein buys Magna Carta originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Dec 2007 18:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

At the Private Equity Analyst Conference in New York yesterday, the co-founder of the Carlyle Group, David Rubenstein, has continued to be oblique on the question of going public. Hey, in light of the Blackstone (NYSE: BX) debacle, I can understand why.

Well, according to the Wall Street Journal [a paid service], Carlyle is taking another approach (at least for now). That is, the firm has snagged a $1.35 billion private investment from Mubadala Development Company, which is part of Abu Dhabi. Essentially, this places a hefty $20 billion valuation on Carlyle.

It's an important move. Carlyle wants to have a permanent source of capital, which can help with minority investment opportunities and even buying up other private equity firms.

Plus, in order to keep up the growth momentum, Carlyle needs to expand into new markets, such as the Middle East.

The investment points out something else: Abu Dhabi is quite bullish on the global financial markets. Besides its Carlyle investment, the government (which controls the United Arab Emirates) is also taking a large position in the Nasdaq as well as the London Stock Exchange.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

Carlyle: Who needs an IPO when you have investors from Abu Dhabi? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 20 Sep 2007 13:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

David Rubenstein, who is the co-founder of private equity firm The Carlyle Group, has been buying and selling companies since 1987. Now his firm has 30 offices around the globe, as well as $71 billion under management.

Interestingly enough, back in the 1970s, he served in a variety of political seats -- such as the Deputy Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy (under the Carter Administration). He has also practiced law for several prestigious law firms.

So what are his thoughts on the recent turmoil in the private equity world? Well, he gave an interview for the Wall Street Journal [a paid publication]. Basically, his opinions are in-line with those of other top dealmakers, such as from the Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) and Fortress (NYSE: FIG). That is, we won't see mega deals (because financing has vaporized).

Also, sellers will need to get more realistic on valuations, which is never easy. In fact, many just may rather wait to do deals. In other words, private equity firms will need to work much harder to get strong returns -- and it will require more patience (Rubenstein thinks this could take a couple years).

By the way, Rubenstein has a new book that will hit the shelves soon: Beyond Wall Street: The Rise of Private Equity and the Future of Investing. It should be a good read.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Carlyle's David Rubenstein talks it up originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 25 Aug 2007 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Not that long ago, KKR's Henry Kravis said that private equity had moved into the "golden age."

Well, things have lost some sparkle lately.

First of all, it's getting tougher to raise money in the debt markets. What's more, with the surging stock markets, the valuations are making it difficult to get better returns. Oh, and of course, Capitol Hill is thinking of imposing some taxes on private equity partners.

Hey, just look at the lackluster performance of the shares of the Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX).

So this week, the founding partner at Carlyle, David Rubenstein, gave his opinion on things (this is according to a story in Reuters). Basically, he thinks the golden age of private equity has ended -- and it will get tougher for private equity firms to generate standout returns.

He's not predicting a crash though. After all, there are many investors that want to increase their exposure to private equity. Besides, he thinks top private equity firms will continue to generate better returns than the traditional markets.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Peter Cohan: Debating private equity taxation with The Wall Street Journal
Peter Cohan: Private equity lays a bigger golden egg on Wall Street
Tom Taulli: Private equity cookie monster gets fatter

Carlyle's Rubenstein: Private equity losing luster originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 21 Jul 2007 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Super Return conference in Frankfurt is the main event for private equity. David Rubenstein, the founder and managing director of the Carlyle Group certainly gave an interesting speech.

He started the firm in 1987 and has been a part of a variety of major deals. He is also a lawyer and has a deep political background, which seems to be a valuable skill set nowadays for private equity operators. For example, he served as President Carter's Deputy Assistant on domestic policy.

Well, according to his presentation at Super Return, he thinks private equity is not overheated. That is, do not expect a crash since private equity firms primarily focus on companies that produce real revenues and cash flows.

That's the good news.

However, everything will not be rosy. After all, tons of capital has flooded into private equity. Thus, he thinks returns will inevitably soften. So 30%+ gains will not become a habit.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Carlyle Chief: Private equity has issues originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Feb 2007 14:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In the new issue of Business Week, Maria Bartiromo conducts an excellent interview with Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein about his outlook for private equity in 2007.

Rubenstein predicts more money going into emerging markets, and he said the Carlyle Group will double its investment in Asia this year. He is also weary of increased government regulation of private equity groups, and provided a great quote: "The Declaration of Independence says we're supposed to pursue happiness, but when people are too happy, the government doesn't like it."

If other private equity groups follow Carlyle's lead of doubling up on Asia this year, emerging markets could see a buyout-fueled bull market similar to what the United States saw in 2006. I suspect that exchange-traded funds could be the best way to make that bet.

Carlyle bullish on private equity originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 07 Jan 2007 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.