Just a short quarter ago -- three months -- the lingua franca in economics and financial circles was "decoupling" -- the argument that the global economy could grow, despite an economic slowdown in the United States.

Then the U.S. slowdown persisted, lower growth rates and projections in Europe Asia followed, and the commodity price correction ensued, led by the most vital of all commodities, crude oil.

Oil, which for the better part of four years knew only one direction -- up -- pulled back about $30, or more than 20%. (Oil closed Friday down $6.49 to $114.59 per barrel). And unlike previous mild dips, emerging market demand -- the "rest of the world" in the oil market -- was not enough to protect the oil bulls. U.S. oil demand did matter -- it had declined on a year-over-year basis for more than three months -- and is projected to drop 3.1% in 2008, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

What's more, the EIA expects U.S. oil consumption to drop another 2.3% in 2009, to 20.08 million barrels per day.

Continue reading Oil's pull-back represents a (temporary) break for U.S. motorists

Oil's pull-back represents a (temporary) break for U.S. motorists originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 23 Aug 2008 13:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

One way investors/readers could characterize the current environment is as a world filled with concerns.

Concern about the U.S. housing sector. Concern about declining U.S. disposable income. Concerning about slowing GDP growth in Europe and Asia. Concern about the Yankees not winning the American League pennant.

O.K., that last item was a purely subjective, parochial one, but you get the point: there's concern that global economic conditions are worsening, not improving.

Europe's GDP is latest focal point

Further, while emerging markets in Asia, led by China and India, have been the growth story of the decade, the region really sending a chill up economists' -- business executives' -- spines is Europe, so says economist Glen Langan.

"Up through July we had seen weakness in Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal, and the investment community's response was one of 'no big deal, they are not the major growth regions, anyway,'" Langan said. "But now there's signs of slowing in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, and nearly every demand-side indicator is in retreat. It's a pronounced psychological shift, no question."

Continue reading Right now, it's a globe filled with economic concerns

Right now, it's a globe filled with economic concerns originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 16 Aug 2008 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

IMF now expects the global economy to grow 3.7% in 2008, down from its earlier forecast of 4.1% growth, Bloomberg News reported, citing an IMF document it obtained at the meeting of Southeast Asian deputy finance ministers and central bankers in Vietnam. The IMF also said there's a 25% chance global growth will drop below 3% in 2008 and 2009.

In January 2008, the IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year to 4.1%, the lowest since 2003, from 4.4% predicted in October 2007. At that time the IMF said last year's increase in credit costs resulting from defaults on mortgages aimed at borrowers with poor credit histories was hurting the rest of the economy.

Continue reading IMF again cuts 2008 global growth forecast on credit crunch ripples

IMF again cuts 2008 global growth forecast on credit crunch ripples originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Apr 2008 15:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.