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Doomsday Scenario: Could U.S. default on its national debt?

Apparently the markets think that U.S. risk of sovereign default is steadily creeping up. Hedge fund blogger Zero Hedge puts up the numbers here. According to the numbers from finance calculator company Markit, U.S. is a greater default risk than Japan or Germany, among others.

A default would destroy the U.S. economy and TARP recipients, in particular. The Piqqem Sentiment on major TARP holders is more or less neutral, although the bankruptcy of the U.S. Treasury might change that, no?

Continue reading Doomsday Scenario: Could U.S. default on its national debt?

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and AOL sign browser deal

Hewlett Packard NYSE:HPQ logoHewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) has inked a deal with Time Warner Inc.'s (NYSE: TWX) AOL unit to install AOL's web browser start page, toolbar and search on HP personal computers sold worldwide. This may not sound like a big deal, but it is, since the vast majority of computer users never change the default start pages that load when their Internet Explorer web browser starts up. Having AOL's search engine, which is powered by Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), as the default is a biggie as well. HP, after all, sells more desktop and laptop computers than any company on the planet at this time.

AOL will use its custom "myAOL" homepage as the default website on all HP PCs, which will encourage new HP owners to use AOL's services like email, news, finance and weather. While some computer users complain of unwanted "bloatware" that ships on new PCs, the practice of providing new PC owners with default relationships to service providers such as AOL is likely to continue.

Now, what is unanswered here is how this will affect HP's existing relationship with internet portal Yahoo, Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) which has been in place for almost one year. Since HP did not make a single reference to this relationship, one must surmise that HP is dumping Yahoo! completely from its systems and replacing Yahoo!'s services with AOL's services. If that is the case, Yahoo! just earned a huge black eye and AOL came out very rosy. With HP competitor Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) using Google services as the default on its PCs, this leaves Yahoo! in a tough position without a top-tier PC partner.

Corporate America: Headed for debtor's prison?

The WSJ.com (paid article) has an excellent piece – called "Buyout Bonanza" – that takes a look at the perils of the buyout craze. That is, Corporate America may be on the fast-track for rapid debt accumulation.

Funnily enough, the article looks at the buyout of a gambling company, Harrah's Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:HET). The deal has a value of $17.1 billion, of which about $10 billion consists of debt. True, the company has gobs of cash flow: $2.5 billion a year. Yet, this still amounts to more than 8X the value of the debt. That's certainly in the risk zone. Keep in mind that the average deal has a ratio of 5.7X.

The problem is that – with huge amounts of private equity – there are likely to be many more huge companies that go private and as a result, take on huge amounts of debt. In a way, the end of 2006 was a highlight of things to come.

However, if the economy falters – which it is bound to do – we could see a variety of marquee companies dive into default. But so far it's a gamble a myriad of big companies are willing to take.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates DealProfiles.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-93.7910,197.47
NASDAQ-17.882,149.02
S&P 500-11.271,087.24

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 10:12 PM

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