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Worries of European Sovereign Default Rattle the Markets

So you thought the sovereign debt crisis in Europe was over? Wrong. For the past two months we've had a temporary respite. The euro rose and we got a nice warm and fuzzy feeling. But now the problem is back.

According to Bloomberg Markets Magazine's October issue, even though Europe did stress tests on their banks, there is still concern that one or more countries could default. Banks hold sovereign debt bonds from many different countries. That is putting pressure on all eurozone banks.

A default by Greece could trigger the collapse of banks with large holdings of Greek debt. Europe's largest banks hold €134 billion in Greek, Portuguese and Spanish government bonds.

Continue reading Worries of European Sovereign Default Rattle the Markets

Is the Eurozone History?

In an unexpected move, German chancellor, Angela Merkel, called for the "orderly insolvencies" of member states.

Germany says it wants to get tough on European Union members to prevent another Greek crisis. Germany has been against helping Greece, and only under pressure from the EU and the IMF did it agree to participate in the bailout.

Now, the Germans want to let member states default to avoid any repeat of the Greek crisis. What they fail to realize is that defaults are often messy and not orderly. What could happen is that confidence in the eurozone would disappear as would the euro.

Continue reading Is the Eurozone History?

Greek Bailout Is a High-Wire Act

Greek bailout The Greek bailout is now urgent. European Union and International Monetary Fund negotiators are meeting via teleconference on Monday and a team will be in Greece for two weeks to hammer out the details of the bailout.

Why such urgency? On Tuesday Greece is issuing $2 billion in three-month government bonds. Last week the cost of Greek financing rose in international markets. There is fear that borrowing costs will continue to rise.

Continue reading Greek Bailout Is a High-Wire Act

Even the good die young? High-quality mortgages approaching foreclosure

The loans that got us into this mess were generally the first to fall. Variable rate mortgages written without documentation for people with sketchy credit histories shocked nobody as their slide became an avalanche. But, the good stuff is starting to follow. An increasing amount of fixed rate mortgages offered to borrowers with solid credit histories are feeling their ways to foreclosure. Blame unemployment for this one. When people can't work, it gets pretty hard to pay the mortgage.

Fixed rate, high quality mortgages had a foreclosure a year ago. Last quarter, it jumped to 33%, according to a Mortgage Bankers Association report. As this happened, the amount of homeowners behind on their payments or in foreclosure just set another record high ... for the ninth month in a row. Subprime mortgages are headed in the other direction. Low quality adjustable rate mortgages are now 16% of new foreclosures -- compared to 35% last year. And, more than 18% of Federal Housing Administration loans are anywhere from one payment behind to in foreclosure, with California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida worst off: together, they accounted for 44% of new foreclosures.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Continue reading Even the good die young? High-quality mortgages approaching foreclosure

Doomsday Scenario: Could U.S. default on its national debt?

Apparently the markets think that U.S. risk of sovereign default is steadily creeping up. Hedge fund blogger Zero Hedge puts up the numbers here. According to the numbers from finance calculator company Markit, U.S. is a greater default risk than Japan or Germany, among others.

A default would destroy the U.S. economy and TARP recipients, in particular. The Piqqem Sentiment on major TARP holders is more or less neutral, although the bankruptcy of the U.S. Treasury might change that, no?

Continue reading Doomsday Scenario: Could U.S. default on its national debt?

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and AOL sign browser deal

Hewlett Packard NYSE:HPQ logoHewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) has inked a deal with Time Warner Inc.'s (NYSE: TWX) AOL unit to install AOL's web browser start page, toolbar and search on HP personal computers sold worldwide. This may not sound like a big deal, but it is, since the vast majority of computer users never change the default start pages that load when their Internet Explorer web browser starts up. Having AOL's search engine, which is powered by Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), as the default is a biggie as well. HP, after all, sells more desktop and laptop computers than any company on the planet at this time.

AOL will use its custom "myAOL" homepage as the default website on all HP PCs, which will encourage new HP owners to use AOL's services like email, news, finance and weather. While some computer users complain of unwanted "bloatware" that ships on new PCs, the practice of providing new PC owners with default relationships to service providers such as AOL is likely to continue.

Now, what is unanswered here is how this will affect HP's existing relationship with internet portal Yahoo, Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) which has been in place for almost one year. Since HP did not make a single reference to this relationship, one must surmise that HP is dumping Yahoo! completely from its systems and replacing Yahoo!'s services with AOL's services. If that is the case, Yahoo! just earned a huge black eye and AOL came out very rosy. With HP competitor Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) using Google services as the default on its PCs, this leaves Yahoo! in a tough position without a top-tier PC partner.

Corporate America: Headed for debtor's prison?

The WSJ.com (paid article) has an excellent piece – called "Buyout Bonanza" – that takes a look at the perils of the buyout craze. That is, Corporate America may be on the fast-track for rapid debt accumulation.

Funnily enough, the article looks at the buyout of a gambling company, Harrah's Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:HET). The deal has a value of $17.1 billion, of which about $10 billion consists of debt. True, the company has gobs of cash flow: $2.5 billion a year. Yet, this still amounts to more than 8X the value of the debt. That's certainly in the risk zone. Keep in mind that the average deal has a ratio of 5.7X.

The problem is that – with huge amounts of private equity – there are likely to be many more huge companies that go private and as a result, take on huge amounts of debt. In a way, the end of 2006 was a highlight of things to come.

However, if the economy falters – which it is bound to do – we could see a variety of marquee companies dive into default. But so far it's a gamble a myriad of big companies are willing to take.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates DealProfiles.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 03:06 AM

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