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Philips (PHG) is the fluorescent defensive play

Joseph Lazzaro — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 09:39:00 EST

Filed under: Other Issues, Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Stocks to Buy

One wouldn't think a light bulb/electronics company could serve as a defensive play, but that's the case with Philips (NYSE: PHG).

Amsterdam-based Philips is the world's No. 1 light bulb manufacturer and a series of converging events has put the company in an advantageous position.

First, technological advancement has driven down the cost of fluorescent light bulbs, which are substantially more efficient than the incandescent bulbs that have been in widespread residential use for decades. Second, Europe's governing bodies have mandated use of the new bulbs to reduce energy use, and hence greenhouse gas emissions. Third, growing environmental awareness among consumers has substantially increased demand for the bulbs in nations where their use is not mandated, such as the United States. Philips shares closed Tuesday down 36 cents to $40.89.

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Philips (PHG) is the fluorescent defensive play originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 31 Oct 2007 09:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Stanley: Prudence, patience, profits never go out of style

Joseph Lazzaro — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 19:38:00 EST

Filed under: Housing

With the markets in a choppy/consolidation mode (or perhaps worse), it's best to consider including a few defensive stocks in your portfolio. The Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) is worth a review.

Stanley manufactures tools for professional, industrial, and consumer use, and has built a business model that's been successful for more than a hundred years. A security solutions unit accounts for about 20% of revenue, but the key revenue driver here is tools: hammers, screwdrivers, pliers, sockets, saws, and measuring instruments, among other products.

Stanley has endured due to the company's diversified product line, outstanding pricing framework (matching value to price), discipline regarding costs, and durability of its products. That, not surprisingly, has led to a superior brand reputation, which the company has adeptly marketed abroad: about 40% of sales are international-based. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for SWK are $4.01 to $4.50.

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Stanley: Prudence, patience, profits never go out of style originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 29 Oct 2007 19:38:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Yamana (AUY): An inflation hedge, and more

Joseph Lazzaro — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 18:09:00 EST

Filed under: Yamana Gold (AUY), Technical Analysis

Here's a defensive/growth hybrid that, I am underscoring, is only for those investors who can tolerate at least moderate risk: it's not for the low-risk investor.

Historically, mining stocks in general and gold stocks in specific are not defensive plays. But Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) breaks the mold. Yamana operates mines in Central and South America with 7 million ounces of proven and provable reserves. In general, analysts project solid gold production gains for Yamana, with the company adding copper to its mining plans, moving forward. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimate for AUY are 75 cents to $1.00.

Still, as one realizes, production is not the only factor in a mining company's success. The price of precious metals is just as important, and the argument here is that demand for gold will remain strong: driven by jewelry and industrial uses. And, of course, there's gold's use as an inflation hedge. (Gold traded Monday at $792.60 per ounce, up $5.10.) The aforementioned, combined with Yamana's cost containment, make a better-than-adequate case for AUY's shares.

[Note: Technical analysis agnostics stop reading here; all others continue.]

Technically, Yamana's chart is adequate. The stock has recovered from a summer sell-off and is above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Stock Analysis: Yamana is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Consider buying AUY's shares if you can tolerate moderate risk, but do not make AUY your primary defensive stock investment. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to buy it: $8.50.

Yamana (AUY): An inflation hedge, and more originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 29 Oct 2007 18:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Deere (DE): Well-positioned amid the global agri-boom

Joseph Lazzaro — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 17:25:00 EST

Filed under: India, China, Brazil, Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, Canada, Deere and Co (DE), Commodities, Eastern Europe, Agriculture, Housing

With the markets in a choppy/consolidation mode (or perhaps worse), it's best to consider including a few defensive stocks in your portfolio. Deere and Co. (NYSE: DE) is worth an evaluation.

Deere is well-positioned to take advantage of several long-term, secular trends. Chief among these are: strong international agricultural and international construction/building markets, and an expanding consumer equipment sales segment.

Solid, enduring growth in international agricultural markets is the standout fundamental here, with the business line's revenue growth expected to offset slumps in equipment sales for the correcting U.S. housing market. Other positives: DE's costs remain under control, its balance is strong, and agriculture equipment market conditions suggest the company has modest pricing power. Increased use of renewable fuels are likely to add to demand for DE's equipment, assuming at least one renewable fuel gains traction as a practical, affordable alternative to petroleum-based energy.

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No one ever went broke holding Coke (KO)

Joseph Lazzaro — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 09:30:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Coca-Cola (KO)

Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) as a defensive play? Correct.

This is not your parents' Coca-Cola company: this is the drink-diversified KO. Coca-Cola has adeptly positioned itself in the health and sports drink (Powerade) segment, while continuing to effectively publicize one of the most iconic brands in the world, its namesake cola drink.

Other positives: KO has dominant or large-lead market share positions in key developed nations, an impressive emerging market presence, a superior balance sheet, more-effective cost controls, and marketing skills that many companies can only dream about. KO's shares closed Thursday up $1.12 cents to $61.30.

The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for KO are $2.66/$3.00

In addition, buy some of Coca-Cola's shares and you're buying not only a consumer products defensive, but also uniting yourself to a part of Wall Street history -- one of Wall Street's famed adages. And, as those in the Concrete Canyon will confirm, it's always prudent for investors to heed Wall Street's adages. The generations-old adage regarding KO is: "No one ever went broke holding Coke."

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No one ever went broke holding Coke (KO) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 26 Oct 2007 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Cisco (CSCO) sees an interconnected future

Joseph Lazzaro — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 09:50:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Cisco Systems (CSCO), Stocks to Buy

Continuing with our defensive stock series for a choppy/consolidating market: generally, one would not list a tech stock as a defensive play. Cisco Systems (NYSE: CSCO) is an exception.

Two fundamentals warrant the advocacy of Cisco as a defensive play: 1) the company supplies the majority of networking equipment used for the internet -- it is the world's largest supplier of computer internetworking systems, and 2) emerging market growth. So long as the internet remains intrinsic to business processes in emerging/developed markets and so long as emerging markets continue to grow, Cisco will benefit in the years ahead. Analysts project a roughly 15%-20% annual revenue growth rate for CSCO for 2007-2009. Another positive: look for CSCO's advanced technologies unit to continue to contribute impressively to the company's revenue on video system business.

Further, we'll skip for this review the debate regarding the possible "broadband shortage" and focus instead on the counterargument. Assume deteriorating conditions in the U.S., perpetually high energy prices slowing global growth, and increased protectionist sentiment. The impact on Cisco? Most likely, CSCO keeps growing, albeit at a slower rate, but it will grow, nonetheless. CSCO's shares closed Wednesday down 28 cents to $31.26.

[Note: Technical analysis agnostics stop reading here; all others continue.]

Technically, Cisco's chart is strong. True, the stock has recently retreated from a 52-week high of around $33.60, but this came after an impressive advance from the $26-range. Cisco has dipped below its 50-day moving average for the second time in four months, but it's been above its 200-day moving average for more than a year. The p/e of 27 is elevated, but this is not an unreasonable p/e, given CSCO' s likely strong revenue growth.

Stock Analysis: Cisco (CSCO) is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from CSCO's shares. Sell/Stop Loss: $22.

Cisco (CSCO) sees an interconnected future originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 25 Oct 2007 09:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Kellogg's (K) iconic cereal brands

Joseph Lazzaro — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 08:40:00 EST

Filed under: Kellogg Co (K), Commodities, Stocks to Buy

Continuing with our defensive stock series for a choppy/consolidating market: place Kellogg (NYSE: K) in the "old reliable" category.

Product innovation, legendary brands, economies of scale, marketing prowess, and an impressive global geographic footprint spell good things for Kellogg in the years ahead. An improving snack business is another positive. But let there be no doubt -- the key drivers here are the brands the young (and young at heart) have come to know and love: Special K, Frosted Flakes, Rice Krispies, Fruit Loops, and Apple Jacks. Further, from a market standpoint, while it's always possible for the health/organic segment to overwhelm the mainline cold cereal segment, that day has not arrived.

The qualifiers: Rising commodity costs could further cut into earnings, as would more-broadbased acceptance of generic cereals. Kellogg's shares closed Wednesday up 10 cents to $54.34.

Technically, Kellogg's chart looks good. Trading around $54, the stock is currently just below its 50-day moving average of $54.85, but the stock has been above its 200-day moving average -- the toughest average to break -- for more than 18 months. Further, Kellogg's chart displays a healthy advance, minor correction pattern.

Stock Analysis: Kellogg is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from K's shares. Sell/Stop Loss: $43.

Kellogg's (K) iconic cereal brands originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 25 Oct 2007 08:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Tupperware (TUP) really benefits from home cooking

Joseph Lazzaro — Wed, 24 Oct 2007 17:15:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Stocks to Buy

Continuing with our defensive stock series: given the current choppy / consolidating markets (or perhaps worse), Tupperware (NYSE: TUP) doesn't strictly-fit the defensive stock definition, as it's in the consumer / discretionary segment. Still, given TUP's potential, it warrants a review by investors.

Tupperware's signature product is the food storage container that carries the company's patented seal. One could make the case that U.S. shoppers will buy fewer of these containers as the U.S. economy slows, as they are, strictly speaking, a discretionary purchase. Still, we know from previous belt-tightening periods Americans tend to cut back on dining out. Undoubtedly that means more home prepared meals, and leftovers, which need containers -- a positive trend for Tupperware.

Further, with sales in more than 100 countries, Tupperware is adequately-positioned to benefit from continued good-to-excellent GDP growth in emerging markets. The Reuters F2007/2008 revenue consensus estimates for TUP are $1.91 billion / $1.99 billion. Tupperware's shares fell $1.83 to $33.63 in Wednesday afternoon trading.

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