deficit posts
FeedPosted Sep 11th 2009 4:00PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Coca-Cola (KO), FedEx Corp (FDX)

Another record deficit, a Geithner likely tax boost, and higher import prices failed to significantly spook the markets even after a five or day run-up. Based on the late day recovery, where this close was going to end up was an unknown until right at the closing bell. The day was a very light day for news, so here are the closing bell levels (unofficial close):
Dow 9,603.98 -23.50 (-0.24%)
S&P 500 1,042.73 -1.41 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,080.90 -3.12 (-0.15%)
Top Analyst UpgradesTop Analyst DowngradesTop Day Trader AlertsContinue reading Closing Bell: The bull takes a tiny break (KO, FSLR, FDX, BHI, PCS)
Posted Aug 26th 2009 10:30AM by Jim Cramer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Cramer on BloggingStocks, Recession
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that rather than selling and moving into cash, consider these reasons to hold firm.
Look, the deficit numbers are awful. They are totally daunting. We have to hope they don't come true because they are way too big to cope with no matter what we do with taxes. The dollar will get killed. Our kids will be stuck with some horrifying bills. The disaster that Matt Horween outlined in his multi-part op-ed series a couple of weeks ago will happen.
So, why don't I say you should go into cash because of it? Couple of reasons: First, I have to have some faith that the government will grow up, that they will get serious about spending, that President Obama will get serious about spending. Second, I hope we have much more growth than people realize and therefore we can grow our way out of this jam.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Deficit tally to make stocks more fragile
Posted Jun 7th 2008 8:20AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Consumer experience, Politics, Oil, Recession
The New York Times reports that some in Washington are using the latest economic catastrophe to push Congress to make tax breaks permanent. What these folks don't recognize is that the tax cuts are a big reason why the economy is in such bad shape to begin with. With unemployment spiking to 5.5%, the worst since 1986, and oil prices up a record $11 yesterday to $138 a barrel, it won't be long before you're paying $5 a gallon for gasoline.
And since oil is traded in dollars, its 70% decline since January 2001 from 92 cents to the Euro to its current $1.56 -- has been accompanied by a 475% rise in the price of oil. The $1.3 trillion worth of tax cuts -- 36% of which went to the top 1% -- are contributing to record deficits. In 2008, we'll have a $410 billion deficit and the 2009 figure looks to top $500 billion. And thanks to $3 trillion worth of wars, the U.S. is borrowing $9.4 trillion -- almost double where we were in 2000.
Thanks to these deficits, the U.S. is borrowing 66% of its $14.2 trillion GDP -- and any country borrowing more than 60% is seen by international investors as a credit risk. You'll hear people trying to convince you that deficits don't matter. But deficits are at the core of all the economic problems we face. Republicans used to be seen as the party of fiscal conservatism. But what they've actually done would terrify a prudent banker.
Continue reading Why tax cuts ruin the economy
Posted Apr 30th 2008 10:12AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Other issues, Economic data, Politics, Federal Reserve
The Fed's job is to control inflation. But is was established originally to keep financial panics from getting out of control. Since last August, it has reverted to its original role and failed miserably. Since it began cutting its Fed Funds rate 57% from 5.25% to 2.25% the price of a barrel of oil has risen 62% from $71 to $115. Simply put, the weaker the dollar, the higher the price of oil. Bloomberg News proves it -- noting that in the last year, there was a 0.96 correlation -- a correlation of 1.0 would be a completely safe bet -- between the Euro-dollar exchange rate and the price of oil.
If it bothers you to pay $3.66 for a gallon of gasoline you can thank the Fed along with cheerleader, Hank Paulson who brags that he's been talking about the U.S.'s strong dollar policy consistently. Of course saying and doing are two different things. Since January 2001, the dollar has lost 70% to the Euro. And since oil is traded in dollars, a drop in the dollar leads to a rise in price. And lower interest rates erode further the value of the dollar since it pays government bond holders a lower rate of return so they sell the U.S. currency and buy higher yielding ones.
But it's unfair to give the Fed all the blame. After all, we have been running the Federal budget at a deficit -- expected to hit $413 billion this year. Since the Fed has started cutting rates, other factors such as speculation by leveraged traders -- relying on the 0.96 correlation -- and political instability seem to have remained at the same level -- although the degree of speculation seems difficult to measure. And U.S. demand has declined due to the economic slowdown. So it looks like those dollar-weakening rate cuts are the one factor powerful enough to offset the demand slowdown to drive prices up.
Continue reading How the Fed costs you more at the pump
Posted Feb 2nd 2008 2:40PM by Gary E. Sattler (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, Industry, Rants and raves, Competitive strategy, China, Politics, Recession
Someone might want to explain this to me because it defies nearly all palatable logic that I can apply to it. I read earlier this week that China carries a large debt portfolio and that about 70% of it is American debt. Additionally, China is buying up American debt at break-neck speed, while possibly neglecting their own populace in order to do so.
As I was taught, there are two potentially profitable reasons to buy debt obligations. The first (and best) reason is because there is a reasonable expectation that the debt will be repaid, supported by documentation, collateral security, and research. The second reason is because there is an expectation that the debtor shall default, resulting in the expeditious seizure of pledged security assets that are desired.
I've become aware of an unsettling third scenario regarding the value of buying debt. You can easily use it to buy control of the debtor's assets through their weakness.
Continue reading American debt and the Great Chinese Mind-Bender
Posted Nov 13th 2007 10:10AM by Zack Miller (RSS feed)
Filed under: China, PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR)
Last week was an interesting week for Chinese stocks. While I wrote about
PetroChina's debut and its subsequent record-setting $1 trillion market cap, my colleague and fellow-BloggingStocks blogger,
Aaron Katsman, wrote about the potential
bursting of the Chinese bubble.
With growth and excitement like this, we shouldn't be surprised to read today that
China published inflation numbers that matched its own decade-long record high of 6.5%. This will put additional pressure on the Chinese Central Bank to raise interest rates, something it has already done
5 times this year alone.
The Bank blamed rising food prices in general for the inflation run-up and said that prices for pork, in particular, had skyrocketed 55%. October's record $27 billion trade surplus injected even more cash into the economy, stoking inflation that's twice the 3% pace that is the central bank target. Chinese trade surplus reached an all-time high this month -- in spite of the Central Bank's pledge to rein in export growth.
BloggingStocks reported yesterday that Henry Paulson, Secretary of the US Treasury, is expected to continue lobbying the Chinese to relax restrictions on the Chinese yuan to allow for faster appreciation of the Chinese currency.
Continue reading Inflation threatening Chinese growth
Posted Jun 23rd 2007 8:40AM by Gary E. Sattler (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Other issues, Mexico, Canada, Economic data
Judging by the most recently available statistics from the American Association of Railroads, the trade and productivity numbers currently coming out of Washington appear to be a bunch of bunk. Will someone please tell Ben Bernanke that cold hard facts will supplant pipe dreams any day?
Rail freight numbers for the week ended June 9 continue to trend downward and are consistent with trending for the year so far. By now, industrial surpluses and inventories should have been reduced to the point that manufacturing would be demanding an increased influx of raw materials, but such is not the case. Plainly put, consumer demand and domestic manufacturing are down, and it shows plainly in reduced freight numbers. The breakdown for the week ending June 9 is as follows:
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Intermodal freight (truck trailers or shipping containers): Down 3.2 percent from last year.
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Carload freight (not including intermodal): Down 5.6 percent.
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4.0 percent fewer carloads originated from the West and 7.8 percent fewer originated from the East.
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Total cumulative rail freight volume for the first 23 weeks of 2007 was an estimated 754.9 billion ton-miles, down 3.1 percent from last year.
Canadian and Mexican railroad reports show similar trending, though not as significantly as the American declines. The single remarkable exception is the Mexican railroad, Kansas City Southern de Mexico (KCSM), which has reported intermodal volume of 4,878 trailers or containers, up 18.4 percent from the 23rd week of 2006. That significant increase, my friends, is reflective of manufactured goods they're shipping up to us.
Bear these numbers in mind the next time you get your statistical hogwash from Washington. They can tell you that more people are working and they can tell you that companies are manufacturing more stuff, but the true facts come out when the train cars get loaded (or don't).
Posted May 30th 2007 9:04PM by Gary E. Sattler (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Bad news, Rants and raves, Personal finance, Workspace, Politics
Today's Democratic Party is not the Democratic Party as your grandfather knew it. If you think that the Democrats are all about working peoples' needs and how best to serve them, you may wish to think again. The days when the powerful labor unions were backed by legislation-wielding hot-dogs who were ready to step into the gap to protect the working class in wages, safety, and working conditions have faded away. In fact, I'm of the mind that the decline actually began way back with the disappearance of Jimmy Hoffa and the slow ugly death of that empire once known as the American steel industry.
Fast forward to NAFTA and GATT, and you'll find two of the most damaging pieces of paperwork that the American economy has ever endured. Do I need to mention the one name most closely associated with both of those documents from the American side? I'll give you a hint, his ex is now looking to plant her feisty butt in the oval office.
Take a look, if you dare, at the link I have provided. It's an article called "Dems Sell Out on Trade" and surprisingly enough it's written from a slightly Democratic perspective. Read it, digest it, and then look at the past three decades in light of it. No, today's Democratic Party is not the Democratic Party that your grandpa supported. The new breed means business . . . in a stinkingly non-American, global sense.
Posted May 23rd 2007 5:15PM by Gary E. Sattler (RSS feed)
Filed under: Good news, Rants and raves, Competitive strategy, Canada, Politics, Commodities
There is a bit of glee circulating on the frozen tundra amid news that the Canadian dollar has hit the equivalence of 92.34 American cents, its highest point in 30 years. TD Securities Inc. chief currency strategist Shaun Osborne states that it is possible that the Canadian dollar could reach a value of .96 cents by June. Analysts agree that if commodity prices continue to rise, there stands a good chance that the two currencies would equalize. I say if that point is reached the two currencies should be immediately put into lockstep and our fluctuating currency exchange on our northern border should end forever. Could it be done? Yes, it could. Will it ever happen? Probably it won't.
Personally, I think the benefits would far outweigh the temporary disadvantages. Granted, I expect there would be quite a tussle in the commodities exchange for a time but that's a self adjusting system anyway. NAFTA paved the way for the "free flow" of goods and materials across our borders. Currency equalization would take the teeth out of much of the damage that tilted document has inflicted upon the American economy. I suspect that Canadian manufacturers might get just a little testy about the idea, but I believe that in the long run it would level the playing field for them as well as us. I also think it would give North America a lot more leverage in the world markets.
Economic idealists and world view visionaries already have a name for a singular North American currency. Do a web search for the word "Amero" and you'll spend the rest of your week reading about it. You'll receive every point of view you could ever imagine. Some say it would be the next step to the "One World Government," some say it would be a protectionist move. I say it's the most logical step toward stabilizing two very powerful yet unsteady economies. I see it as a grand statement to the rest of the world that there's still a force to be reckoned with over here pinned between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
Then, if we could just annex Mexico...
Posted Dec 28th 2006 10:52AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst reports, Forecasts, Good news, China

David Malpass of Bear Stearns wrote a great op-ed piece on how to interpret the trade deficit. The full article can be found on the
Forbes Digital Rules blog.
Here are some some of his thoughts:
- The imbalance, the trade deficit and related capital inflow all link the faster-growing U.S. with other aging, slower-growing economies. They are a reflection of growth in the U.S., not weakness.
- Despite our trade deficit and other countries' trade surpluses, the U.S. economy has created 9.3 million new jobs since the 2001 recession, compared with 360,000 jobs in Japan and 1.1 million jobs in the European zone, excluding Spain.
- Speaking of Spain -- like the U.S., Spain (3.6 million new jobs) and the U.K. (1.3 million new jobs) also ran trade deficits and created jobs rapidly during these last five years.
- The recent upswing in the U.S. trade deficit partially reflects the shift in the demographics of the world's large economies. The under-60 population in the U.S. is expected to grow for at least 50 years, whereas the under-60 populations in Japan and Europe is already in a decline and China will also be in a decline within a decade.
We have blogged in the past on how the trade deficit has been misinterpreted by economic pundits for years. In my opinion, David Malpass is one economist who gets it right.
Posted Dec 11th 2006 1:20PM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: China

Having won the election, Democrats appear to be easing their political rhetoric as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson & Company
head off to China to begin trade talks.
In prior trips to China, Democrats have been quite vocal about
China's trade deficit, suggesting negative implications for the U.S. economy. However, since winning the November election, Democrats seem to be more tight-lipped.
It appears the trip will focus more on increasing China's consumption than drastic currency changes or threats of retaliatory trade sanctions.
Power brings responsibility. Messing up the relationship between the U.S. and China could lead to ramifications that are impossible to quantify. It appears the Democrats are going to stay away from fighting this battle for now.
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