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If you like rising incomes, higher stock prices and economic growth, vote Democratic

The New York Times reports that a new book -- Unequal Democracy by Larry M. Bartels, a Princeton economics professor -- contains statistics that demonstrate an important historical pattern -- the U.S. economy does better under Democratic presidents than under Republican ones. That is, the last eight years -- in which the median income shrank while consumer prices rose -- is just an extreme example of the economic impact of Republican presidencies.

And based on statistics from Forbes, the stock market also does better under Democratic presidents. Forbes "found that the S&P 500 has averaged a total return of 14.1% per year under Democratic presidents since April 1945, and 11.8% under Republicans. The best total returns--17.4% per year--were under Bill Clinton, whose presidency ranked first in economic results."

How much better does the economy do under Democrats? The Times reports that between 1948 and 2007, Gross National Product (GNP) growth per capita was 1.14 percentage points higher under Democrats (2.78%) compared to 1.64% for Republicans. The Times reports "that 1.14-point difference, if maintained for eight years, would yield 9.33 percent more income per person, which is a lot more than almost anyone can expect from a tax cut."

Continue reading If you like rising incomes, higher stock prices and economic growth, vote Democratic

Is Obama in 2008 like JFK in 1960 -- on the glory road?

A colleague based in Washington, D.C. recalled that moment in the 1960 presidential campaign when Kennedy's campaign staff knew that John F. Kennedy would defeat Richard Nixon. It occurred that fall, just before their first televised debate -- the first presidential debate ever broadcast on television.

The then Sen. Kennedy, a Democrat, was fresh from a vacation at the Kennedy Compound at Hyannis on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. He was bronzed from days spent sailing in the sun, and he was well rested. He looked like a Greek sculpture.

Conversely, the then Vice President Nixon, a Republican, looked ashen, tomb-stone white, with deep-set eyes from weeks of campaigning.

And as is the norm before a show, the TV producer asked Kennedy if he wanted some make-up.

"Nah, I don't want any make-up," Kennedy said, and motioned off the make-up man with his hand.

Nixon, perhaps trying to match Kennedy, and despite his sweaty face, refused make-up, as well.

Continue reading Is Obama in 2008 like JFK in 1960 -- on the glory road?

Clinton campaign hopes for spring renewal after winter of discontent

It is not a revelation to state that Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-New York) campaign has stumbled and is reeling.

It would be a revelation to argue that despite all of the advantages that public policy experience, party apparatus, and political contributions affords, Hillary Clinton could lose the 2008 Democratic Party Nomination, and to an upstart at that.

When one is trained in public policy and economics, you tend to view the world, at least the economic and political worlds, through a social science prism, and with that lens one can detect three Clinton campaign errors that have led to the current nomination process state-of-things.

The economy
To-date, the Clinton campaign has failed to emphasize Clinton's biggest strength: how she would fix an ailing U.S. economy. Clinton has at least five policy proposals that speak directly to what many Americans need economically; she'll have to emphasize these to secure the nomination.

Continue reading Clinton campaign hopes for spring renewal after winter of discontent

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Last updated: November 12, 2009: 12:16 AM

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