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Five winning Super Bowl trades: IV. Buy Denny's Corp. (DENN)

When shares of Denny's Corp. (NASDAQ: DENN) are trading at half the price of a Grand Slam Breakfast, yet it was one of the companies willing to drop big bucks on a Super Bowl ad, I gotta jump in my car and get down to Denny's to see what's gone wrong.

Problem is, nothing has gone wrong. They are just as crowded as ever, especially during this recession.

They represent a full sit-down meal destination at fast-food prices. And the portions are big.

The company has totally restructured, selling off franchises and keeping all the best locations for its own portfolio -- and the results are pouring in.

On Jan. 15, the company said it expects to meet or exceed its previous guidance for full-year 2008, thanks to the success of the Franchise Growth Initiative (FGI) and other cost-saving actions that protect margins and cash flow.

With the stock trading around $1.50 per share, it's time to consider whether Denny's is some low-hanging fruit ready for the picking.

Bryan Perry is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.


Go long: Super Bowl ad sales strong as economy weakens

As weak as consumer spending is, this year's Super Bowl ads are still the most expensive in history at $3 million for a 30-second spot: $100,000 per second.

Even though General Motors (NYSE: GM) and other struggling former mainstays are bowing out of the Super Bowl this year, 90% of the advertising spots for the game are already sold. Denny's (NASDAQ: DENN) purchased a spot in the less-expensive third quarter -- an interesting decision given that that company has seen its stock price decline by more than two-thirds since late 2007. A $3 million ad represents about 2% of that company's market cap, not including production expenses.

Still, some experts say that Super Bowl ads are actually relatively affordable for the amount of eyeballs they attract: 2.7 cents per view compared with 5.6 cents for the Oscars.

Still: Is it really a good idea for companies to shell out millions of dollars to advertise to consumers who don't have any money to spend? For those that can easily afford it and need to keep their brands in the spotlight it makes sense. But for more marginal cases like Denny's, I'm not so sure.

Analyst calls: RIMM, NYX, NDAQ, PMCS, DENN, DAI . . .

Analyst upgrades:

  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $26.50 from $25 on valuation as they believe MidAmerican Energy will consummate the merger. The firm points out shares are trading at a 14% discount to the $26.50 offer.
  • Merriman upgraded Denny's Corp. (NASDAQ: DENN) to Buy from Neutral as they believe the company's restructuring and successful menu and food cost management should stabilize operating margins.
  • Daimler (NYSE: DAI) was upgraded at Merrill to Buy from Neutral on valuation as they believe the stock is oversold at current levels.
  • Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.
  • Veolia Environnement (NYSE: VE) was lifted to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Goldman raised PMC Sierra (NASDAQ: PMCS) to Buy from Neutral.

Analyst downgrades:

Continue reading Analyst calls: RIMM, NYX, NDAQ, PMCS, DENN, DAI . . .

Analyst upgrades: BP, LMI Aerospace, Smith & Nephew

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BP, LMI Aerospace and Smith & Nephew were among today's noteworthy upgrades:

  • Credit Suisse upgraded BP (NYSE: BP) following the company's strong Q1 report.
  • Wachovia upgraded LMI Aerospace (NASDAQ: LMIA) based on valuation and potential catalysts that include a production rate hike decision on the Boeing 737, an option on the 767 wing modification program, and Q1 earnings.
  • Wachovia upgraded Smith & Nephew (NYSE: SNN) based on growth opportunities, strong reconstruction product cycle, and potential share gains, among other reasons.

OTHER UPGRADES:

  • UBS upgraded James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) based on higher long-term coal prices.
  • Merriman upgraded Denny's Corp. (NASDAQ: DENN) because they believe that franchise growth initiative will reinvigorate the franchisees and put the company in a better position to beat estimates over the next year. The firm thinks investors need to refocus on the company's core operating profitability.

Earnings highlights: GM, Comcast, UBS, Best Buy, Hasbro, Marriott, and others

Here are some highlights of this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Also, Jim Cramer defends his interest in GM after its record loss.

Upcoming results to watch for include Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI), MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM), JCPenney (NYSE: JCP), and Safeway (NYSE: SWY).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Denny's and Waste Management report fourth-quarter profits

On Wednesday, both Denny's Corp. (NASDAQ: DENN) and Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WMI) reported a rise in fourth-quarter profits.

But excluding restructuring charges, asset sale gains, and other one-time items, restaurant operator Denny's net income was $3.4 million, or 3 cents per share, down from $7.3 million in the same quarter a year-ago. Revenue fell 10% to $220.3 million from $244.4 million last year. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected a profit of 4 cents per share on revenue of $216.4 million.

For the year, net income rose 14% to $34.7 million, or 35 cents per share, from $30.3 million, or 31 cents per share in 2006. Revenue fell 6% to $939.4 million from $994 million.

The company also said it expects revenue to fall in 2008 as it continues to sell restaurants to franchisees.

After falling in early trading Wednesday, shares closed up 15 cents, or more than 4%, to $3.58.

Continue reading Denny's and Waste Management report fourth-quarter profits

Cramer talks buyout names

On today's STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Cramer noted potential takeover and rumor names.

He says to Buy Reliance Steel and Aluminum (NYSE:RS) after it went up today from US Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) acquiring Lone Star Technologies (NYSE: LSS).

GlobalSantaFe Corp. (NYSE: GSF) is one that may be acquired by Seadrill. Cramer thinks it is willing to be consolidated. He thinks this one is cheap.

Cramer noted on Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM) the Indian car maker on the downgrade today, Cramer doesn't care if Morgan Stanley cut it. He thinks it is a secular growth story.

RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) was also noted positively for its CEO.

On Denny's Corp. (NYSE: DENN), he still thinks it is going up after a value manager noted it earlier today.

Continue reading Cramer talks buyout names

Third Point may put IHOP on the griddle

Now that New York-based hedge fund Third Point has raised its stake in IHOP Corp. (NYSE:IHP), the company may begin to feel the heat if its performance does not improve.

IHP's stock has languished in the $49-$55 range for about a year, the byproduct of lackluster 6-month 2006 sales, which were roughly flat compared to the same period in 2005. Moreover, IHP posted a 3% decline in sales in 2005, to $348 million from $359 million in 2004.

In an SEC filing, Third Point reported that it had raised its stake in IHP to 1.25 million shares, or about 7% of IHP's 17.8 million outstanding shares. One hedge fund institution upside: a potential extra source of buyers for your stock. One downside: a pointed, sophisticated, and resource-rich critic of management if your company does not meet the hedge fund's expectations.

Continue reading Third Point may put IHOP on the griddle

Analyst downgrades 2-16-07: Take-Two, Expedia, Denny's all downgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Career Education Corp (CECO) and Expedia Inc (EXPE) were today's most notable downgrades:
  • Prudential downgraded Career Education Corp (NASDAQ: CECO) to Underweight from Neutral with a $20 target based fourth quarter results and guidance.
  • Expedia inc (NASDAQ: EXPE) was downgraded to Sector Performer from Sector Outperformer based on a deteriorating outlook and valuation following the weak fourth quarter.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Various retail dining companies were downgraded today:
    • Denny's Corp (NASDAQ: DENN) was reduced to Neutral from Buy at Merriman, citing weak traffic trends and the net unit growth delay into 2008.
    • UBS downgraded Applebee's Int'l Inc (NASDAQ: APPB) to Neutral from Buy as they believe sales and traffic declines are likely to continue until easier comps in the second quarter.
    • BB&T downgraded California Pizza Kitchen Inc (NASDAQ: CPKI) to Hold from Buy on valuation and concerns about earnings visibility.
  • Constellation Brands Inc (NYSE: STZ) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs on concerns around upcoming guidance and their belief that a recovery in the U.K. and Australia is at least a year away.
  • Goldman downgraded WellCare Health Plans Inc (NYSE: WCG) to Sell from Neutral.
  • Citigroup downgraded Petrobras Energia Participaciones ADS (NYSE: PZE) and Consolidated Communications Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: CNSL) to Sell from Hold.
  • WedBush downgraded Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) to Sell from Hold with a $15 target to reflect less optimism about the company's sport franchise and risk from the NY AG investigation.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 2-06-07: Adobe started with an Outperform at Credit Suisse

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Adobe Systems Inc (ADBE), CA Inc (CA) and DSW Inc (DSW) were today's most notable initiations:
  • Adobe Systems Inc (NASDAQ: ADBE) was initiated with an Outperform rating and $47 target at Credit Suisse. The firm said Adobe is one of the best-positioned large-cap software companies given its leading position in digital media and growing presence in enterprise mobile and Web 2.0 markets.
  • CA Inc (NYSE: CA) was initiated with a Hold rating and $27 target at Jefferies. While CA is being looked at by private-equity players, Jefferies believes shares are richly valued.
  • DSW Inc (NYSE: DSW) was initiated with a Sell rating and $30 target at Wedbush, as they believe the consensus' 3-5 year annual EPS growth rate of 20% to be too high.

OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Credit Suisse started Southern Union Co (NYSE: SUG) with an Outperform rating and $33 target.
  • Needham assumed coverage of Ikanos Communications Inc (NASDAQ: IKAN) with a Hold rating, as the firm believes a rebound of VDSL spending is unlikely until the second-half of 2007.
  • Morgan Joseph is positive on Denny's Corp (NASDAQ: DENN) improving operations and started the food retailer with a Buy rating and $7 target.
  • Jefferies started HMS Holdings Corp (NASDAQ: HMSY) with a Buy rating and $25 target. The firm believes HMS Holdings is positioned to serve the needs of government healthcare programs.
  • Credit Suisse initiated WebEx Communications Inc (NASDAQ: WEBX) with a Neutral rating at $50 target based on valuation.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 1-9-07: Denny's served up with a buy

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wrigley, Wm Jr. and Denny's were the most notable initiations today.
  • Wrigley, Wm Jr. (NYSE: WWY) was started at Bear Stearns with an Underperform rating, citing valuation.
  • Denny's Corp (NASDAQ: DENN) was initiated with a Buy rating at Wedbush; the firm sees significant earnings growth potential from the company's store re-franchising.

OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • ThinkEquity initiated Lightbridge Inc (NASDAQ: LTBG) with a Buy rating and $18 target. The firm says Lightbridge's business and investor focus will be enhanced when the company exits the TDS segment by mid-2007. The broker expects shares to then be driven by Authorize.net, a pure-play payment processor.
  • CIBC initiated Knot Inc (NASDAQ: KNOT) with a Sector Performer rating and $32 target. The firm expects pricing growth over the next few years to drive 20% ad revenue growth and for margins to be driven by business mix, synergies from the Wedding Channel acquisition, and cost structure.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Cramer calls Denny's a Grand Slam

denny'sOn tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer discussed Denny's Corporation (NASDAQ:DENN) as a Buy. He said it is a name you want to own. He said the company has made a turn, and please note he said this earlier last week or the week before when he said it was going to $6.00. This stock closed as $4.58 today, and was up at $4.71 (almost 3%) after he began touting the stock. Cramer, a bit stridently, said that when he brings on CEO "you need to listen" -- in this case, the CEO was on back on the 15th and replayed it: "in the midst of refinancing debt and should get it resolved this quarter...."

Cramer said they had been selling stores to pay debt but now they don't need to sell off the other 21 stores because they are operating better. Cramer again said he thinks it is going to $6.00. The street hasn't caught on the refinancing angle, and the company is changing its model to focus more on franchises, and less on company-owned stores.

[Photo Shibainu]

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-11.4910,279.77
NASDAQ-1.272,165.63
S&P 500-1.901,096.61

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 09:35 AM

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