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Five winning Super Bowl trades: IV. Buy Denny's Corp. (DENN)

When shares of Denny's Corp. (NASDAQ: DENN) are trading at half the price of a Grand Slam Breakfast, yet it was one of the companies willing to drop big bucks on a Super Bowl ad, I gotta jump in my car and get down to Denny's to see what's gone wrong.

Problem is, nothing has gone wrong. They are just as crowded as ever, especially during this recession.

They represent a full sit-down meal destination at fast-food prices. And the portions are big.

The company has totally restructured, selling off franchises and keeping all the best locations for its own portfolio -- and the results are pouring in.

On Jan. 15, the company said it expects to meet or exceed its previous guidance for full-year 2008, thanks to the success of the Franchise Growth Initiative (FGI) and other cost-saving actions that protect margins and cash flow.

With the stock trading around $1.50 per share, it's time to consider whether Denny's is some low-hanging fruit ready for the picking.

Bryan Perry is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.


Five winning Super Bowl trades

It's Super Bowl time.

This day of the year has almost reached holiday status where families and friends gather in front of big-screen TV to spend six hours watching a typically boring football game and stuffing themselves with nachos, wings and beer.

With all of the hoopla surrounding the event, this is a good time for investors to go for some Super Bowl profits.

Why? Looks like it's not just a pseudo-holiday -- it's a tradition:

Continue reading Five winning Super Bowl trades

Go long: Super Bowl ad sales strong as economy weakens

As weak as consumer spending is, this year's Super Bowl ads are still the most expensive in history at $3 million for a 30-second spot: $100,000 per second.

Even though General Motors (NYSE: GM) and other struggling former mainstays are bowing out of the Super Bowl this year, 90% of the advertising spots for the game are already sold. Denny's (NASDAQ: DENN) purchased a spot in the less-expensive third quarter -- an interesting decision given that that company has seen its stock price decline by more than two-thirds since late 2007. A $3 million ad represents about 2% of that company's market cap, not including production expenses.

Still, some experts say that Super Bowl ads are actually relatively affordable for the amount of eyeballs they attract: 2.7 cents per view compared with 5.6 cents for the Oscars.

Still: Is it really a good idea for companies to shell out millions of dollars to advertise to consumers who don't have any money to spend? For those that can easily afford it and need to keep their brands in the spotlight it makes sense. But for more marginal cases like Denny's, I'm not so sure.

Analyst upgrades: BP, LMI Aerospace, Smith & Nephew

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BP, LMI Aerospace and Smith & Nephew were among today's noteworthy upgrades:

  • Credit Suisse upgraded BP (NYSE: BP) following the company's strong Q1 report.
  • Wachovia upgraded LMI Aerospace (NASDAQ: LMIA) based on valuation and potential catalysts that include a production rate hike decision on the Boeing 737, an option on the 767 wing modification program, and Q1 earnings.
  • Wachovia upgraded Smith & Nephew (NYSE: SNN) based on growth opportunities, strong reconstruction product cycle, and potential share gains, among other reasons.

OTHER UPGRADES:

  • UBS upgraded James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) based on higher long-term coal prices.
  • Merriman upgraded Denny's Corp. (NASDAQ: DENN) because they believe that franchise growth initiative will reinvigorate the franchisees and put the company in a better position to beat estimates over the next year. The firm thinks investors need to refocus on the company's core operating profitability.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-63.3410,227.92
NASDAQ-9.732,157.17
S&P 500-7.591,090.92

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 01:31 PM

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