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2009 Unemployment Ends with Double Digits, Consequences Still to Come

More than 20 million people received unemployment benefits last year, a new record. While they didn't all do it at the same time, the activity was enough to run the unemployment rate up to 10%, leaving everyone with the belief hope that 2010 just has to be better.

The severity that has characterized the job market since the woes of American International Group (AIG) and Lehman Brothers made headlines in September 2008 eased up a bit as 2009 marched toward its conclusion. The layoffs slowed down a bit, but a dearth of hiring means that we aren't seeing a pickup for the 5.8 million who've been out of work for more than six months ... let alone everyone else.

Continue reading 2009 Unemployment Ends with Double Digits, Consequences Still to Come

Retail hiring up from last year, but still well below average

Sluggish retail sales in November didn't stop retailers from adding bodies. A report by outplacement consulting company Challenger, Gray & Christmas, reavealed to BloggingStocks, shows that retail sector payrolls grew to 321,300 in November, an improvement from the previous month's 233,700. This follows 54,200 retail hires in October, bringing the total number of seasonal retail employees up to 375,500. Already, that comes close to the 384,300 hired from October through December in 2008. The analysis is based on data supplied by the Department of Labor.

High expectations for the holiday season likely contributed to the up-tick in hiring. The estimated 0.5% growth from Black Friday 2008 to Black Friday 2009 was a disappointment, and November sales were off 0.3%, surprising analysts, who expected the trend to go in the other direction. Costco (COST) and Limited Brands (LTD) came out ahead, but most retailers, including Target (TGT) and Macy's (M) struggled. Saks (SKS) is also suffering from an anemic luxury goods market.


Continue reading Retail hiring up from last year, but still well below average

Consumer spending falls victim to debt repayment

Consumer borrowing fell for the eighth straight month in September. This record-setting streak is due largely to tightening by lenders, unemployment and the conservative preference to pay down debt rather than spend. This widespread fit of fiscal responsibility, economists fret, could prevent a recovery from taking root, since consumer spending is responsible for 70% of the U.S. economy. This conventional thinking, of course, overlooks the fact that an eventual increase in spending that isn't fueled by consumer spending will yield a recovery that's more likely to last.

According to the Federal Reserve, borrowing fell at an annual rate of $14.8 billion in September -- it's biggest drop since July and much larger than the $10 billion predicted by economists. The behavior is exactly what you'd find in people worried about losing their jobs or focused on rebuilding safety funds and investment portfolios. Those who want to borrow are finding banks won't be complicit this time, as they clamp down on lending practices.

Continue reading Consumer spending falls victim to debt repayment

Employee productivity up close to 10%

Work smarter not harder. Do more with less. Increase your output. Become more productive.

You've heard all this before, right? What it all means is that layoffs are coming, and the survivors are going to have to take on a hell of a lot more work, with no increase in support, resources or compensation. As cuts come, the survivors fight to survive, and succeeding means that a new benchmark is set. If you can survive without the help you used to have, it's easier to defer hiring for a while.


Continue reading Employee productivity up close to 10%

First-time jobless claims fall faster than expected

First-time claims for jobless benefits fell last week, hitting the lowest level we've seen since January. The U.S. Department of Labor pegged the number at 521,000. This is down from the previous week's 554,000 (which had been revised upward). Wall Street economists anticipated 540,000. Claims of this type have fallen four times in five weeks, and the four-week average reached 539,750 – its lowest level since January 17, 2009.

In general, first-time claims for unemployment benefits have been declining since the spring, though slowly. Unfortunately, they still remain well above the 325,000 that economists claim to be indicative of a healthy economy.

Continue reading First-time jobless claims fall faster than expected

Unemployment rate hits 9.8%

Unemployment is at its highest level since 1983, hitting 9.8% last month. The Department of Labor announced that 263,000 jobs were lost. This follows a revised loss of 201,000 jobs in August (lower than first reported). Nobody expected the August unemployment reprieve to last, and the increase suggests that the forecasted 10.3% unemployment rate for early next year will be realized.

Originally, the forecasted unemployment drop for September was 175,000, according to Bloomberg News, with individual economists surveyed reporting in a range of 100,000 to 260,000.

Continue reading Unemployment rate hits 9.8%

Retail sales hint at jobless recovery

Retail sales gained a seasonally-adjusted 2.7% in August, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. This follows a 0.2% decline in July. The August results beat analyst expectations soundly, lending support to talk of a recovery. The Cash for Clunkers program is cited as contributing to August sales.

Without autos, sales increased 1.1%, still ahead of the anticipated 0.4% gain. Take gas out of the measure, as well, and retail sales grew 0.6%.

Inventories fell in July, for the twelfth month in a row, with the 1% decline a tad higher than the 0.9% anticipated by many economists.

Continue reading Retail sales hint at jobless recovery

Job market expected to recover in 2014

The rate at which jobs were cut slowed in August, but the gap to be filled will be with us for a while. With 14.9 million people looking for jobs according to Moody's Economy.com, the unemployment rate won't hit 5% -- considered "normal" -- until 2014. To put this in perspective, we still have one presidential election and two mid-term contests between now and a full employment recovery.

Data published by the Department of Labor Friday puts the unemployment rate at 9.7%. In December 2007, it was only 4.7%. And, as BloggingStocks reported on Friday, it could pass 10% by the end of 2009. For teenagers, the unemployment rate has reached 26%. The number of job-seekers who have given up completely is above 750,000 -- the highest level since the Department of Labor started keeping score in 1994.

Continue reading Job market expected to recover in 2014

Weekly initial jobless claims rise to 608,000

Is the unemployment picture getting any better? The truth is that's its hard to tell. The Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment insurance rose 3,000 to 608,000. The expected number was 600,000. This is especially disturbing since this is the time of year when most hiring in done, mainly in the construction trades.

However, there is some good news. Continued claims for unemployment (those persons already on the rolls) fell by 148,000 to 6.69 million. This was the lowest level since May 9, as well as the largest one-week drop since November 2001. This indicates that persons already on the rolls are finding work, and that's good news.

Continue reading Weekly initial jobless claims rise to 608,000

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 08:06 AM

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