BloggingStocks

Retail job cuts: why Sears (SHLD) has to be next

Douglas McIntyre — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 10:45:00 EST

Filed under: Employees, Sears Holdings (SHLD), Financial Crisis

Macy's (NYSE: M) just cut 7,000 jobs, 4% of its workforce. Almost all retailers are suffering, so the question is which chain will have the next large round of lay-offs.

Bet on Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD). Its K-Mart and Sears stores have been doing poorly. If Macy's has to let people go, Sears has to be facing similar trouble.

According to the AP, Sears same-store sales fell 7.3% in December. On that basis, sales in Sears U.S. stores dropped almost 13%. That kind of erosion is just not sustainable. Not with the same cost structure Sears had last year. If anything, retail sales will be worse in the first part of this year now that the holidays are over.

Continue reading Retail job cuts: why Sears (SHLD) has to be next

Retail job cuts: why Sears (SHLD) has to be next originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 03 Feb 2009 10:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Kohl's is a know-thy-customer case study

Joseph Lazzaro — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 18:16:00 EST

Filed under: Competitive Strategy, Kohl's Corp (KSS), Stocks to Buy

Wall Street's luke-warm stance toward the retail sector should not prevent you from considering Kohl's Corporation (NYSE: KSS) as a retail play.

Kohl's has successfully broadened its offerings to the point where it is now a leading, moderately-priced retail chain. Kohl's offerings in apparel, shoes, accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings and housewares now hold their own against primary competitor JC Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP).

Further, regional market adaptations of store inventory keep KSS in-tune with what consumers want in a particular geographic area. Also, a computerized mark-down optimization program is likely to improve margins for clearance items/lines: there's no sense cutting the price of an item before a store has to, in order to sell it. Not surprisingly, analysts' channel checks consistently report a department store chain that knows what its customers want, and that prices items fairly, in well-run stores.

Also, look for Kohl's to slightly expand its customer base, but its target market of married women ages 25-50 should continue to drive impressive same store sales gains. Kohl's has about 820 stores and expects to have 1,200 by F2011. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for KSS are: $3.64 to $4.22.

The qualifiers? As always, analysts are watching the consumer discretionary spending statistic in light of continued elevated gasoline prices, and a possible slowing U.S. economy. Hence, if gasoline sails past $4 per gallon in 2008, it undoubtedly hurts Kohl's results. But absent that scenario, look for Kohl's to remain a leader in its segment. KSS's modest p/e of 13 also lowers the stock's risk/return ratio.

The First Call mean rating for KSS is: Buy. [25 firms.] Mean 2007 target: $71.00. [high: $103, low: $47.]

Stock Analysis: Kohl's is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Don't buy Kohl's shares if your portfolio already contains an adequate retail component. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from KSS's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to consider buying this stock: $37.

Kohl's is a know-thy-customer case study originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Nov 2007 18:16:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Nordstrom: A retail play for the bold investor

Joseph Lazzaro — Mon, 12 Nov 2007 14:04:00 EST

Filed under: Consumer Experience, Nordstrom, Inc (JWN), Stocks to Buy

Now is definitely not the time to think about retail sector investments. Soaring oil and gasoline prices, uncertainty regarding the size of the subprime mortgage default problem, and concerns about a slowing U.S. economy don't exactly flash the "SPEND" signal for consumers this holiday season.

Even so, Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) may buck the trend, or perform well despite the headwinds, to use a Wall Street phrase.

The case for buying Nordstrom rests on the company's increasing market share, solid balance sheet and cash flow, all driven by the Nordstrom brand. Over the last decade, Nordstrom has established itself at the leading upscale department store. Most retailers would love to have Nordstrom's combination of brand reputation, Baby Boomer appeal, and consistent shopping experience across store departments.

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Nordstrom: A retail play for the bold investor originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 12 Nov 2007 14:04:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Coupon clippers of the world unite against Macy's

Zac Bissonnette — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 17:51:00 EST

Filed under: Consumer Experience, Newspapers, Competitive Strategy, Marketing and Advertising

You don't mess with a shopper's coupons -- Macy's (NYSE: M) has learned that lesson the hard way.

According to The New York Times, "For years, the department stores that Macy's acquired ... had relied on 15- and 20-percent-off coupons to alert people, like a Pavlovian bell, that it was time to shop. As part of its reinvention, Macy's tried to wean shoppers off them. But the tactic backfired. With fewer coupons to clip, thousands of people from Washington to Los Angeles turned their backs on Macy's."

Now Macy's is jumping back on the coupon bandwagon, and is pledging that there will be plenty for clippers to cut this holiday season.

It's puzzling why Macy's decided to move away from coupons in the first place. It seems like an ingenious way to dole out savings to consumers: non price-savvy shoppers won't clip the coupons and therefore won't get the savings. This way, the store avoids giving discounts to a lot of people who would have purchased the clothing without them in the first place.

Historically, corporate America has always had trouble weaning shoppers off coupons. Macy's is just the latest in a long history of companies that have failed at it. Few smart shoppers are probably surprised that the efforts have failed, and now Macy's will allow our love of coupons to continue.

Coupon clippers of the world unite against Macy's originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 30 Sep 2007 17:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Macy's (M) hooks up with Trump, Martha, and others

Beth Gaston Moon — Thu, 23 Aug 2007 10:45:00 EST

Filed under: Deals, Consumer Experience, Competitive Strategy, Marketing and Advertising, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (MSO)

After reporting a disappointing decline in second-quarter earnings and sales last week, Macy's (NYSE: M) is pulling out the big guns. Donald Trump and Martha Stewart are just two among a coterie of celebrities being employed in the department-store company's $100 million advertising blitz.

New television spots for Macy's - one of which will debut on September's Emmy-Award broadcast - will also feature R&B singer Usher, Tim Gunn from Project Runway, chef Emeril Lagasse, and hip-hop mogul Sean ~~"Puff Daddy" "P. Diddy"~~ "Diddy" Combs.

Also on the roster as a celebrity endorser for the Cincinnati-based retailer is Jessica Simpson. Seems like a bit of a slap in the face to hometown boy (and erstwhile Simpson paramour) Nick Lachey.

Stewart, figurehead of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (NYSE: MSO), also is working with Macy's on an exclusive line of Stewart-branded home products, which will launch this fall only in Macy's stores.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Macy's (M) hooks up with Trump, Martha, and others originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 23 Aug 2007 10:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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KKR shopping at Macy's

Tom Barlow — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 13:01:00 EST

Filed under: Deals, Rumors, Private Equity, Goldman Sachs Group (GS)

According to Woman's Wear Daily, Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts is partnering with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) to make a $24 billion offer for struggling retailer Macy's Inc (NYSE:M). The former Federated Department Stores, which adopted the better-known Macy's brand in 2005, has 825 stores and $27 billion in annual sales.

KKR is said to be offering $52 a share for the stock, which has been creeping up on rumors of such a deal, to its current $43.12. The Wall Street Journal is among those openly speculating that one driving force behind this deal is KKR's plans to offer an IPO later this year. However, such a deal only beautifies their offering if the market buys into the value of Macy's, which has struggled to establish consistent earnings since leaving bankruptcy in 1992.

WWD interviewed market analysts who voiced skepticism that the Macy's current management would welcome this offer. Given current concerns that private equity money could dry up as lenders tighten up in the aftermath of the housing collapse, I suspect Macy's stockholders won't be prone to wait for another suitor.

Is it a good deal for KKR? Given Macy's portfolio of prime real estate and legendary brand, this deal seems like one with very moderate risk and substantial potential reward.

KKR shopping at Macy's originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 18 Jul 2007 13:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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