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Bernanke's next target: The U.S. greenback

With gold going through the roof since mid-August, jumping from $660 to $743 per ounce, Mr. Bernanke has to be asking whether he is stepping too hard on the monetary gas peddle. Is gold heading higher due to concerns of global inflation or is it heading higher because the world's safe haven, the U.S. dollar, has been getting weaker and weaker?

Expect Mr. Bernanke, the U.S. Treasury secretary and central bankers around the world to find out. The U.S. dollar-Euro exchange rate has gotten completely out of hand with the euro approaching 140 to the dollar versus the 85 level in 2002. Since the dollar has been depreciating against the euro, gold has shot through the roof.

Historically, despite all the talk about comparative purchasing power and differing short-term interest rates determining fair values for currencies, currency values are determined by the trend-is-your-friend mentality of traders. They lever up and ride the trade until the treasury secretaries around the world get together and reverse that trend.

Expect the euro's appreciation versus the dollar to end the same way and expect it to happen soon. Bernanke has to determine if gold is going higher because too much money is chasing too few goods, or gold is trading higher because global investors would rather hold gold than an overvalued euro.

With sentiment so bearish on the dollar, it seems like a good time to go long the U.S. greenback.

Tips for a tolerable trade-in

Earlier today, I referenced a newly published list of the eight worst new-model vehicles in terms of projected depreciation. If you are in the market for a new ride, but are already thinking of the inevitable trade-in, industry experts have some points you may want to consider (think of it as the pre-nuptial agreement of the auto-shopping world).

The article points out that the cars and trucks most likely to retain their value are ones that are "well-designed, well-engineered, and are usually in limited supply and high demand." Choose a popular color, such as black, white, or silver, and avoid wild colors such as purple or orange. Additionally, select features that are in high demand, including alloy wheels, anti-lock brakes, navigation sensors, CD players/changers, and leather seats.

Last, increased fuel costs are taking their toll. A spokesman with DaimlerChrysler (NYSE:DCX) recently noted that "fuel cycles can cause -- as we've seen in the past -- consumers to react more positively toward cars versus larger vehicles such as SUVs."

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-154.8510,309.55
NASDAQ-35.652,140.40
S&P 500-18.061,092.57

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 10:30 AM

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