The New York Times reports that since we've had such a catastrophic run with home mortgages, it's time to watch the collapse of commercial ones. The same names surface when it comes to the collapse of our financial system -- in the case of commercial mortgages Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) ($25.1 billion), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) ($22.1 billion), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) ($40 billion in commercial mortgages and property), and Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) ($19.1 billion) are among the biggest holders. They are also big names in Auction Rate Securities (ARS).
Why do people think that commercial real estate could be tanking? Here are four reasons:
Declining property prices. The Times reports that the Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index has dropped 12% since its peak last October.
Commercial mortgage write-downs. According to the Times, Morgan Stanley reported commercial mortgage write-downs of $400 million and Wachovia (NYSE: WB) said it would take at least $1 billion worth of such write-downs.
Potential Riverton default. The Times reports that Riverton, a 1,230 unit Harlem development, was premised on the idea that developers could convert "lower-priced rentals to apartments priced closer to the higher market average." But the Times reports that Monday Fitch "issued a negative watch on part of the Riverton Apartments trust" since the developers had not made much progress -- threatening commercial mortgages that Citi and Deutsche Bank hold.
Now eight large brokerage firms have settled with Auction Rate Securities (ARS) investors. This afternoon Bloomberg News reports Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Deutsche Bank settled with state regulators. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) announced another prong of its settlement earlier in the day.
What are the terms of the settlement for the latest two? Bloomberg writes that "Goldman will buy back $1.5 billion of the securities and pay a $22.5 million fine. Deutsche Bank will redeem $1 billion of debt and was fined $15 million." In addition to the rogues gallery of big ARS issuers who have yet to settle, investigators are targeting medium-sized brokers -- Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW), Fidelity Investments and E*Trade Financial Corp. (NYSE: ETFC).
This leaves major ARS issuers lagging behind their peers. Here are three holdouts (with their 2007 municipal ARS issuance in parentheses):
BusinessWeek reports that Wall Street has its eye on a new pot of cash -- your pension. And it's a mighty big pot -- $2.3 trillion. But Wall Street is not looking at the entire pension industry, just a $500 billion portion known as "frozen plans" that are closed to new employees and whose benefits are capped. McKinsey forecasts that frozen plans will triple to a hefty $1.5 trillion by 2013.
As usual, Wall Street's plan to buy these frozen pensions will line its own pockets and it will help companies as well. For example, if Wall Street charged a 2% management fee, that alone would generate $30 billion in revenues by 2013 if it bought all the frozen plans, but that fee income is probably the tip of the iceberg.
Companies are eager to dump their frozen pension plans. Why? These limping plans weigh down corporate balance sheet and new accounting rules will require companies to mark the value of their pension assets to market each quarter. In a down market, that could wipe out a company's operating profits.
People familiar with the issue said that European regulators are gearing up to file new antitrust charges against Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC). The charges, the Wall Street Journal reported, would allege Intel gave major European retailers an incentive not to sell computers that use Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) chips.
OTHER PAPERS:
The New York Times reported that News Corporation's (NYSE: NWS) New York Post and The Daily News, owned by Mortimer Zuckerman, are exploring a print pact and have been in talks to find ways to combine some business functions of the papers, according to people briefed on the matter.
Three people familiar with the matter said that the SEC subpoenaed Wall Street investment banks including The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) and Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER) in its hunt and crack down on suspected manipulation of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) shares. Bloomberg reported that two of the people said the SEC, which yesterday curtailed short selling in financial stocks, is looking for e-mails and trading records and is also examining whether securities firms have "adequate controls" to deal properly with misconduct.
With shares in Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) losing another 14% of their value Monday, and the stock trading under $13, rumors are swirling as to what the bank is planning to do. While there has been speculation that the bank may be taken private, an option that I think is very interesting, others have said that another bank is going to swoop in and take over the company. At the discount levels the stock is trading, that may make sense. The only problem is who the buyer will be.
MarketWatch has an interesting article about this issue and the claim is that there really is no one out there to make a bid for the struggling investment bank. The article quotes Jeff Harte, a securities industry analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners, " I'm hard pressed to give you many viable buyers of Lehman. Most large banks are focused on their own capital issues. Even if a bidder did come forward, it would have to win over a lot of Lehman employees -- who control around 30% of the stock -- or risk losing them once the deal was complete."
The most obvious suitor would be JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), but it has its hands full with Bear Stearns. Other banks like Citigroup (NYSE: C) or Wachovia (NYSE: WB) are fighting for survival. That leaves us with European banks, many of whom are also trying to stay afloat. One bank that has the money needed to finance a deal could be Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB). It could be interested in a deal as it would gain a foothold into the fixed-income desk at Lehman. The only problem is that the bank is focused on growing its retail banking franchise, not investment banking.
Which leaves us with the first option as the best one. Go private. Clean up the balance sheet, get profitable, wait a few years for the financial storm to pass, and go public once again.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/15/08.
The earnings season was officially launched last night with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reporting better than expected numbers, and tomorrow we are going to see another big name, Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) report its second quarter numbers.
The company is due to report its current earnings prior to the market open, and going into tomorrow's report analysts are looking to see the company show 49 cents per share on $3.15 billion in revenues. The housing slump over the past year has definitely been hurting hotel operators, so it will be interesting to see what kind of quarter Marriott is able to show to its investors.
The last time the hotel chain released its quarterly numbers was back on April 17, when it matched analyst estimates for its first quarter with 33 cents per share. The stock made a brief rally following the release, but over the past month has been in a solid downward trend.
The Financial Times reported that Bain Capital, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC universal will acquire The Weather Channel properties from Landmark Communications for approximately $3.2B in a leveraged buy-out. The Weather Channel will be run separately.
A top Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) trader is defecting to GLG Partners Inc (NYSE: GLG), the UK's second-largest hedge fund. Goldman's Driss Ben-Brahim, a partner in the firm and the head of its emerging market trading business, will take over GLG's $1.2B emerging markets special situations fund, the Financial Times reported.
OTHER PAPERS:
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ: TTWO), which makes video games, will probably sign video game creator Ken Levine to a new contract. The deal would bolster Take Two's argument that its value exceeds the $25.74 per share that Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ: ERTS) has offered as a takeover price for the company, The New York Post believes.
Back on May 21st, the $34.1 billion buyout deal for BCE (NYSE: BCE) looked bleak. A Quebec court ruled that the process had to stop -- so as to evaluate the impact on bondholders. As a result, BCE's stock price plunged from $37.83 to $33.10.
Of course, the decision was immediately appealed to Canada's Supreme Court. And, it was a savvy move. Today, the high court agreed to allow the BCE deal to move forward (this is according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, which is a paid publication). In fact, there was no rationale provided (instead, this will be provided at a later date).
However, there are still headwinds on the buyout. Simply put, the credit crunch is still lingering and making it extremely difficult to pull off mega financings. The banks on the deal include Citigroup (NYSE: C), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Royal Bank of Scotland, and Toronto-Dominion Bank. Of course, they don't want to sustain any more losses on their balance sheets.
Then again, this does not mean the deal will fall apart. Rather, there will likely be pressure to renegotiate the price tag on the transaction. After all, this is what happened with the buyout of Clear Channel.
It's hard to believe: the credit crunch is getting close to a year old. When it first hit, the result was stunning as pending deals came under much pressure, such as with price renegotiations, litigation and abandonments. There was also an evaporation of mega deals.
However, lately there are signs that buyouts are making a comeback. A recent example is Carlyle's $2.54 purchase of the government business of Booz Allen Hamilton.
But, that's not enough to support the heavy dealmaking infrastructure on Wall Street. As a result, we are now seeing some major layoffs as well as the departures of key players.
For example, according to a piece in Bloomberg.com, the co-head of leveraged finance at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Ashok Nayyar, has left the firm. And the global leveraged finance chief at Deutsche Bank AG, Michael Paasche, is also leaving.
Of course, this doesn't mean that leveraged finance will go away. If anything, major private equity firms will likely bolster their own platforms. Or, we may see other banks entry the fray, such as Barclays Capital (NYSE: BCS).
If we needed another sign that private equity is passe, we need go no further than to look at the current issue of Fortune, which shares a parent, Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), with BloggingStocks. To be fair, Fortune added an update to its web site about the tottering deal. It's a shame because the Fortune article paints such a glowing portrait of Providence Equity Partner's CEO Jonathan Nelson and praises him for doing the biggest deal ever -- the $51 billion takeover of Bell Canada parent BCE (NYSE: BCE) whose stock is down 5.7% this morning.
Regrettably for Nelson and Fortune, the New York Times reports this morning that the deal looks to be imperiled. It quotes one executive who read the revised bank terms: "It's patently obvious that the banks have no intention of closing the deal." These banks -- led by Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Deutsche Bank, and the Royal Bank of Scotland -- sent revised terms to the consortium of buyers. which included higher interest rates, tighter loan restrictions and stronger protections for the banks, far exceeding the original terms.
Fortune has a photo of Nelson sitting in a comfortable chair with his hands in a position that communicates "I am smarter than you." It will be interesting to see whether he can use those smarts to close this $51 billion deal. If he does, then he will certainly deserve the encomiums that Fortune heaps on him. Fifteen months ago I appeared on CNBC to discuss whether private equity had peaked. I think Fortune's Private Money 2008 package answers that question in the affirmative -- with the cover story jinx.
Shares of Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS) are trading higher despite that fact that the company reported a loss for the first three months of the year, hit by its exposure to the credit markets. European shares didn't react to well though as it was the bank's first quarterly loss in five years.
Credit Suisse posted a first quarter net loss of $2.1 billion as the global effects of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis came with substantial write-downs. Thus, the company was forced to write down 5.3 billion francs ($5.3 billion) in mortgage securities and big buyout loans.
Making some comments on its quarterly earnings figures, the company stated its dissatisfaction with the current results, but on the positive side "most of our businesses performed well, with revenues near, or in some cases above, those in the first quarter of 2007." Looking ahead, the company's Chief Executive Brady Dougan is confident that Credit Suisse "will continue to serve as a safe haven for clients in uncertain and volatile markets, and to seize the opportunities that arise in times of market dislocation to create long-term value."
Wendy's International Inc (NYSE: WEN), struggling since the 2002 death of founder Dave Thomas, and pressed by investor Nelson Peltz to improve results, will today announce a deal with Peltz, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that the House Financial Services Committee voted to approve $15B in loans and grants so that local governments can buy foreclosed homes throughout the U.S. Committee chairman Barney Frank said the bill will avoid abuse, including requiring that purchased homes be a minimum 60 days into the process.
Adding to evidence of a rally in corporate credit markets, the Financial Times reported that Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) is preparing another big sell-off of its leveraged loans in Europe.
OTHER PAPERS:
Several e-mails that have been obtained by the New York Post sent between Wall Street banks may prove a serious setback in the fight over the takeover Clear Channel Communications Inc (NYSE: CCU). The e-mails reportedly show the banks, led by Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) and Deutsche Bank, looking to get out of financing the buyout by Bain Capital and THL Partners by offering terms "they know the [firms] won't be able to accept."
Deutsche Bank and other investment banks are apparently working on plans to develop a clearing house for the credit derivatives markets, in an effort to allay rising regulatory concern and investor skittishness about counterparty risk, The Financial Times reported Friday.
Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) and other banks are apparently trying to develop a plan that would allow only institutions with strong capital bases and credible trading histories to clear trades in the credit default swap markets with a central counterparty, The FT reported.
The derivatives market has experienced explosive growth in the past decade, with the instruments' value totaling $350-$450 trillion, depending on the methodology used. At the same time, the credit default swaps market has grown to $45-50 trillion.
Global clearing house
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Friday that, ideally, a global derivatives clearing house should take the form of a public, international organization administered by member nation states. Failing that, he'd like to see a private international organization administered by the major investment banks.
The New York Times reports that since we've had such a catastrophic run with home mortgages, it's time to watch the collapse of commercial ones. The same names surface when it comes to the collapse of our financial system -- in the case of commercial mortgages Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) ($25.1 billion), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) ($22.1 billion), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) ($40 billion in commercial mortgages and property), and Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) ($19.1 billion) are among the biggest holders. They are also big names in Auction Rate Securities (ARS).
Now eight large brokerage firms have settled with Auction Rate Securities (ARS) investors. This afternoon 
.gif){kind=logo}
With shares in 
The earnings season was officially launched last night with 
Back on May 21st, the $34.1 billion buyout deal for 
and 
. He also operates 
It's hard to believe: the credit crunch is getting close to a year old. When it first hit, the result was stunning as pending deals came under much pressure, such as with price renegotiations, litigation and abandonments. There was also an evaporation of mega deals.
and 
. He also operates 
Here are some highlights from this past week's 
Shares of .gif){kind=logo}
Stocks have their worst week in six years
Why haven't the Republicans said much about the economy?
Chasing Value: Are you watching WaMu?
