developing world posts
Posted Sep 25th 2008 1:12PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, Brazil, Russia, Middle East, Politics, Recession, Financial Crisis
One might think that with the financial system in the world's largest economy in need of additional liquidity to avert a financial panic, foreign investors would be preparing similar fixes at home and/or standing at the ready to assist the United States, if needed.
Not quite.
Although central banks around the world have coordinated policies and cooperated fully, leaders of foreign governments balked at similar bailout plans, and many foreign sovereign investors also remain on the sidelines,
The Washington Post reported Thursday.While policy makers in Europe and Latin American agree that the global financial system is facing its greatest stress and threat since the period up to and after the
1929 stock market crash, they saw little need - - so far - - for major rescue packages in their own countries,
The Post reported. Further, sovereign wealth funds, likewise, showed little interest in stepping up to the plate.
The world: well-capitalized spectators
Economist David H. Wang said Britain has cooperated fully, France has proposed a special G-8 summit to deal with the financial crisis, and Russia has acted to stabilize its stock and credit markets, but the rest-of-the-world is "watching the events as they unfold."
Wang said three factors are at work in the rest-of-the-world's cautious stance: national interest, a shift in the geopolitical balance of power, and posturing.
"Regrettably, but predictably, much of the world has turned inward and chosen to focus on its own domestic banks and institutions. There's also the belief, in nations like Brazil and in Middle Eastern economies, that they're more-insulated from the crisis, due to expanded non-U.S. trade relationships and the ability to undertake financial transactions and store value in other currencies, such as the euro," Wang said. "They also see the financial crisis in the context of a transition to a multi-polar financial world, from one dominated by the United States."
Continue reading Foreign nations, sovereign investors stay on sidelines, wait for bargains
Posted Mar 6th 2008 11:32AM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Bad news, Economic data, Recession
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its forecast for 2008 growth in its 30-nation membership to "less than 2%" -- the lowest growth rate since 2003 -- due to fallout from the U.S. economic slowdown,
Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.
Sixth months ago, the
OCED predicted that 2008 growth in the 30-nation zone would total 2.3%, following 2.7% growth in 2007.
The growth revision marks a substantial shift in OECD expectations. Earlier, the OECD predicted that member economies would be to withstand the U.S. economic slowdown without considerable negative consequence. That outlook, along with economic analysis from other countries, helped form the basis for the so-called 'decoupling thesis' -- where Europe and other developed countries race along unscathed by the doldrums in the world's largest economy.
Continue reading OECD decreases 2008 GDP growth forecast to below 2%
Posted Jan 21st 2008 2:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: International markets, Other issues, Bad news, Economic data, Agriculture

The decade's dramatic rise in crude oil prices to roughly $90 per barrel levels has had a lesser-known, but equally consequential impact on life in the developing world -- a rise in price of cooking oils from palm, soybean and many other types of vegetable oils,
The New York Times reported.
The
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said that exports of 60 internationally-traded foodstuffs increased 37% in 2007, following a 14% rise in 2006. Further, price increases in cooking oils hit the developing world particularly hard, as the bulk of poor families in these countries grow their own food, but buy the oil to cook it with.
In the case of palm oil,
The Times reported that rising consumption in China and other emerging markets, along with use of the oil in developed markets as a substitute for chemically-altered trans fats, are two major factors behind its price rise.
Biofuel nexusHowever, for other oils the rise in crude oil is playing a considerable role, according to London-based economist Mark Chandler. Chandler, whose economic specialization includes developing world economies, said crude oil's rise has led to a dramatic rise in the use of cooking oils as biofuels.
Continue reading Costly crude oil means costly cooking oil for much of developing world
Posted Jan 9th 2008 4:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, Other issues, Economic data
Continued robust growth in developing countries will counteract an economic slowdown in the United States, but overall global economic growth will slow to a more-modest 3.6% rate,
the World Bank announced Wednesday.
The bank's 3.6% global growth forecast is down 0.3 percentage point from 3.9% in 2006, a downturn that's primarily attributable to slower growth in high-income countries. The Washington, D.C.-based international bank also sees 2008 global GDP growth of 3.6%.
GDP growth in developing countries is expected to total 7.1% in 2008, while growth in high-income countries is expected to increase a modest 2.2% next year,
the bank said.Continue reading In reversal, poorer countries, not U.S., seen boosting 2008 global GDP
Posted Dec 4th 2007 2:22PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Other issues, Bad news, Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Commodities

A food policy research group is predicting
substantial increases in food prices, arguing that a combination of factors will lead to rising food prices "for the foreseeable future."
The
International Food Policy Research Institute said a major secular trend -- falling food prices prompted by high-yield grains and technological advancement, among other factors -- is set to end.
IFPRI Director Joachim Braun said climate risk and climate change, rising demand for food in emerging markets, and trade barriers will contribute to higher food prices in the decades ahead. For example, global warming is expected to decrease global agricultural production by 16% by 2020, while China and India and other rapidly-developing markets increase demand for meat and dairy products, increasing the price of those goods, as well as grain.
Continue reading Rising food prices may be here to stay
Posted Nov 15th 2007 5:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: International markets, Exxon Mobil (XOM), India, China, Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, Next big thing, Chevron Corp (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), BP p.l.c. ADS (BP), Mexico, Canada, Japan, Commodities, Oil, Eastern Europe
The "Totally Informal Economics Roundtable" (TIER) met this week. For those unfamiliar, the Roundtable achieves a quorum whenever yours truly and my three astute economist friends from graduate school convene to discuss matters economic...or to celebrate the birthday of one our school-age children.
This week's the topic was OPIC. That's OPIC, not OPEC.
Most readers/investors know about OPEC, the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Continue reading An OPIC to counter OPEC? The time is right
Posted Nov 8th 2007 5:44PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Exxon Mobil (XOM), India, China, Brazil, Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, Thailand, Chevron Corp (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), BP p.l.c. ADS (BP), Mexico, Canada, Japan, Commodities, Oil, Eastern Europe, Israel
If the industrialized - - and the industrializing - - world needs a wake-up call regarding the development of alternate and renewable energy sources, the nations need look no further than the
International Energy Agency's research.
IEA projects that between now and 2015, the world will need an additional 37.5 million barrels per day of oil to meet rising demand. Currently, the world use about 84 million barrels of oil per day. [Oil closed Thursday down 91 cents to $95.46. A convergence of events, including strong global economic growth and geopolitical concerns, has pushed oil's price up more than 135% in three years; traders see oil testing the $100 per barrel mark in the weeks ahead.]
And here's the riveting statistic from the IEA: current oil production development plans will add only about 25 million barrels per day by 2015.
And what about that 12.5-million barrel gap? The gap, the IEA said, must be made up through further investment or easing of demand.
If the gap is not filled, a supply shortfall will result, the IEA said. "'A supply-side crunch in the period to 2015, involving an abrupt escalation in oil prices, cannot be ruled out," the agency said.
Oil Analysis: While oil consumption increases are expected in every region in the world and by dozens of nations, the importance of the United States and China in marshaling any energy coalition cannot be underscored enough. Each is the primary engine of growth in its hemisphere. Each has the private, public, and university-based economies of scale necessary to both implement conservation measures and development new energy sources - - practices that smaller nations in each region would undoubtedly mirror. Finally, each - - by virtue of the sheer size of their consumer bases - - can decisively "move the needle" toward increased energy efficiency and, along with it, toward less CO2 in the atmosphere, in the years and decades ahead.