You've been hearing and reading all the bad news about the credit industry and all the nasty things that its difficulties might mean to you, but is anyone considering the positive outcome that this major reset of the American economy could mean in the long run? Being that I'm a cynical optimist (an oxymoron, I know), I have a perspective on this mess which many people might not be thinking about.

I've been telling you since late 2006 that we have entered a world economic shake down and that the biggest hindrance to further growth in the American economy is the fact that the balance sheets of American corporations are full. I cite the sudden spate of major acquisitions in pursuit of profit creation via consolidation as support for my opinion. As modern economics are conventionally structured, the only basis for economic health is steady growth. That makes the case for the necessity of this period of down slide only too palpable.

If we as a nation can financially hold it together for the next couple of years and swallow the huge bitter pill of a recession, when we come out on the other side of this mess we shall reap the incredible rewards of the "green economy" which is now in the process of being built. Today we are planting the seeds of America's next economic boom and I'm sorry to report that most of the rest of the world has mistakenly adopted our old patterns.

For two years now, investors have been told that Japan provides the most value of the Asian markets. Due to its relative market under-performance, investors keep waiting for the world's second-biggest economy to awaken. On the one hand, today's news of a record high in industrial output, helped by auto and semiconductor output, certainly is a good sign signaling Japan's economic growth potential. On the other hand, many analysts are worried due to a huge slowdown in the housing construction industry that the economy is going to sink back into recession. We think the U.S. has a housing construction problem, it pales in comparison to what's happening in Japan.

Due to regulation (is it ever productive?), Japan's housing starts tanked 44 percent on the year in September, the worst drop ever. The brilliant revision to Japan's Building and Standards Law has forced construction companies to wait months for approvals. The big question is whether this real slowdown in the construction industry will dampen economic investment within the broader economy?

Coupled with a stronger yen, which is slowing exports into the U.S., and more government regulation, the constant drum-beating of analysts to invest in Japan looks like it will continue to be good money chasing bad.

On the other hand, if the yen were to weaken and we can get the government to stay out of economic affairs, then investors should turn their attention eastward.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. Disclosure: Writer holds no position in any stock mentioned as of 11/21/07.

Sudden large, negative financial events can disrupt, or at least critique, even the most bedrock economic tenets, let alone recently-percolated conventional wisdom.

On the heels of the housing and credit market crunches, one conventional wisdom item that's currently coming under criticism is the notion of "decoupling" [Subscription required] - the theory that despite a slowing U.S. economy, the European and Asian engines of growth would be sufficient to maintain adequate global GDP growth, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The International Monetary Fund published a chapter in April 2007 entitled "Decoupling the Train," which argued that the U.S.'s mild GDP growth was caused by a housing sector correction. Housing was less global than other commodities, it argued, and hence would not impact the world economy as much.

For example, about two months ago, the IMF projected that global economic growth would slow just slightly in 2008 to 4.8% from 5.2% this year.

So far, China's effort to slow its economy is not working.

China's economy continues to grow at double-digit rates. Commodity and resource utilization remain high, speculative excesses abound, and exports? China's trade surplus keeps soaring, with the United States and Europe incurring rising trade deficits.

The Chinese government announced that over the past 12 months, China's trade deficit with Europe increased an alarming 46% to $135 billion, The New York Times reported. Over the same period, the trade deficit with the United States did not increase as much, in percentage terms, up 18%, but in absolute terms the U.S. still leads the pack with a daunting $162 billion trade deficit.

Surging trade surplus

Further, during the past 12 months, China's overall trade surplus exceeded $250 billion, including a record $27 billion in October 2007.