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Buyback Letter Newsletter: Mid Month - March 2011

Our recommendations center on a collection of five stocks that we believe, as a group, will outperform the market this month. The Buyback Premium Portfolio is beating the S&P 500 by more than 67% since its inception (August 2, 2000)! This portfolio is up 60.00% since inception (August 2, 2000) vs. a decline of 7.70% in the S&P 500 over the same time frame. We hope that you are participating in these profits. For the month of February 2011, The Buyback Premium Portfolio gained 3.57% vs. a gain of 3.20% in the S&P 500.

New Premium Portfolio Recommendation: On March 2, we issued a sell recommendation on four stocks (AET, DLTR, FRX and RAFG) at market. We recommended you use the proceeds and available cash to buy equal dollar amounts of the following four stocks at market:

Continue reading Buyback Letter Newsletter: Mid Month - March 2011

Buy Select Retailers on Dillard's Move into REITs

Dillard's (DDS) logoOn Thursday, Dillard's (DDS) announced that it plans to form a wholly-owned real estate investment trust. The company will transfer some of its properties to the REIT and then lease back the properties from the entity. The company said that the move may enhance its ability to access debt or preferred stock and improve its liquidity.

The market is currently pricing REITs at rich valuations, and the transaction will allow Dillard's to better monetize its significant real-estate assets. By transferring these holdings into a publicly traded REIT, Dillard's should be able to unlock additional shareholder value. According to Craig Johnson, an analyst at Customer Growth Partners, "the sum of the parts can be greater than the sum of the whole."

Continue reading Buy Select Retailers on Dillard's Move into REITs

Dillard's Unveils REIT Plan

DDS logoDillard's (DDS - option chain) shares are rising today after last night the company announced plans to form a real estate investment trust so that it will have greater access to debt and equity markets. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on DDS.

DDS opened this morning at $40.06. So far today the stock has hit a low of $40.06 and a high of $44.50. As of 12:00, DDS is trading at $43.98 up $6.44 (17.1%). The chart for DDS looks neutral and S&P gives DDS a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Continue reading Dillard's Unveils REIT Plan

Earnings highlights: Ann Taylor, GameStop, Home Depot, Sears, TJX ...

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

  • Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (ANN) declining same-store sales offset better-than-expected Q3 earnings.
  • Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) reached a new 52-week high after Q3 results handily exceeded expectations.
  • Dillard's Inc. (DDS) said that it swung to a Q3 profit due to cost cutting as revenue declined year over year.
  • GameStop Corp. (GME) reported uninspiring Q3 numbers that included a slump in same-store sales.
  • Home Depot Inc. (HD) lower Q3 earnings and revenue beat analysts' estimates, but shares still declined.

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Ann Taylor, GameStop, Home Depot, Sears, TJX ...

Dillard's, Saks swing to Q3 profits; TJX earnings soar

Tuesday, TJX Companies Inc. (TJX) reported that its profit soared in the third quarter, and fellow retailers Dillard's Inc. (DDS) and Saks Inc. (SKS) said they swung to year-over-year profits in the same period.

TJX posted earnings of $347.8 million, or 81 cents per share, compared with $235.8 million, or 54 cents, in the year-ago period. Analysts had expected TJX to earn 80 cents a share. Sales rose 10% to $5.24 billion, while same-store sales increased 7%.

Continue reading Dillard's, Saks swing to Q3 profits; TJX earnings soar

Macy's: Uptrend is at odds with consumer confidence numbers

Perhaps Wall Street missed the memo "Sell the news." Macy's (NYSE: M), the largest department store company in the country, beat analyst estimates by roughly 5.2% with a fourth quarter adjusted profit of $1.06 per share. Punters sent shares up smartly on the news, over 4%.

That same morning, we got the worst CCI numbers on record -- below the 30-point range. The Piqqem Sentiment on Macy's has flat-lined after some uptick, implying today's swing could be a dead-cat bounce.


Continue reading Macy's: Uptrend is at odds with consumer confidence numbers

Options Update: Retailers' volatility indicates continued movement

Sears Holding (NYSE: SHLD) closed at $50.22 Tuesday. SHLD Q3 results are expected in late November. Deutsche Bank has a Sell rating on SHLD. SHLD December call implied volatility is at 83, puts are at 127; above its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. SHLD puts are priced higher than calls because SHLD is difficult to borrow.

Dillards (NYSE: DDS) closed at $3.86 Tuesday. DDS is expected to report earnings soon. DDS December option implied volatility of 145 is above its 26-week average of 85 according to Track Data, indicating larger price movement.

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) closed at $30.69 Tuesday. KSS is scheduled to report Q3 financial results on November 13. Deutsche Bank has a Buy rating on KSS. KSS overall option implied volatility of 84 is above its 26-week average of 64 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Activists look to take the Dillards out of Dillard's

Shares of Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) rose 35% yesterday. But the occasion wasn't a buyout or a great earnings report. Instead it was the news that hedge funds Barington Capital Group LP and Clinton Group want CEO William Dillard II fired over the company's dismal performance.

You can read the investors' letter here -- it was attached to a 13-D filed with the SEC. A quick sample:

Despite the generous compensation that has been paid to Dillard family members, the performance of the company over the past ten years has been atrocious. . . . As significant shareholders of Dillard's, we therefore call upon you to work with the Board's Class A directors to IMMEDIATELY begin the process of looking for a new chief executive officer. We recommend that this new chief executive be someone with exceptional integrity and proven leadership and turnaround experience in the retail industry.

You can read the letter for more detail but the market's reaction tells you pretty much all you need to know. The stock was up 35% on the suggestion that the CEO be replaced -- on a day when the Dow was down more than 200 points. What else do you need?

Dillard's insiders bought a few shares of stock last week, perhaps in anticipation of this letter. But investors are likely to see through it: decades of under-performance are not undone by a few token insider buys.


Earnings highlights: Dell, Sears, Tiffany, Talbots, Smithfield, TiVo, Rio Tinto and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Upcoming quarterly reports include Guess (NYSE: GES), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), H&R Block, (NYSE: HRB), Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS), Ciena (NASDAQ: CIEN), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL); and National Semiconductor (NASDAQ: NSM).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Dillard's, Talbots rise despite wider Q2 losses

The economic downturn has meant lower sales for retailers such as department store chain Dillard's Inc. (NYSE: DDS) and apparel retailer Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB). On Wednesday both companies reported wider second-quarter losses.

Little Rock, Ark.-based Dillard's said it it lost $38.3 million, or 51 cents a share, in the quarter, compared with a loss of $25.2 million, or 31 cents a share, in the second quarter of the previous year. Same-store sales fell 4%, and overall revenue dropped to $1.65 billion from $1.69 billion a year ago.

Results included a gain of 15 cents per share, mostly from the sale of a company airplane, and store closing and other charges of 8 cents per share.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had expected a loss of 54 cents per share on revenue of $1.62 billion.

Dillard's said cost-cutting efforts in the second quarter were insufficient to offset disappointing results, but that the company would continue to close under-performing stores and cut back on advertising and general expenses.

Shares of Dillard's jumped 48 cents, or 4%, to $11.85 in early trading, before settling back down. Shares are down about 38% year to date.

Continue reading Dillard's, Talbots rise despite wider Q2 losses

Worst 10-year performers: Dillard's drops to bargain-basement prices

In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next.

As a mid-market department store, Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) was in the wrong place at the wrong time when a slowdown in spending spread across the U.S. A staggering spike in energy and food prices, as well as a nationwide foreclosure crisis, first hit consumers during the first half of 2007. The middle class couldn't help but notice its discretionary income shrinking with each paycheck, and average Americans found themselves with fewer and fewer reasons to plan a trip to the mall.

What went wrong? At number 21 on our list of SPX laggards, DDS lost 72% of its value during the 10-year period that ended June 30, 2008. The equity's sharpest losses have also been its most recent; after hitting a near-term peak of $40.56 in May 2007, DDS took a 71.4% haircut over the next 13 months. The decline was sparked by a weak earnings report on the 23rd of that month, when Dillard's missed the Street's earnings expectations by a staggering 20 cents per share.

Last August, Dillard's proved once again that analysts were too optimistic. The company lost 31 cents per share in its second quarter, compared to expectations for a loss of just 1 penny per share. In April 2008, the beleaguered department store narrowly dodged a proxy battle by awarding a board seat to a nominee proposed by irate shareholder group Barington Capital. Properly chastised by the sharp decline in its share price, Dillard's also announced plans to shutter underperforming stores, reduce capital expenditures, and ramp up the quality of its merchandise.

Continue reading Worst 10-year performers: Dillard's drops to bargain-basement prices

The week in preview: Smooth sailing ahead

If you were paying close attention to this column last week, you would have sidestepped some of the pain and misery investors in many of the stocks discussed have suffered lately. Of late, we have seen the general direction of the markets turn positive, even in the face of news to the contrary.

Perhaps it is because investors have an appetite for stocks, since there seems to be few investment alternatives. Real estate is off limits and the yield on bonds and other fixed-income investments is pathetically low.

The theme for the week ahead is SMOOTH SAILING. In this week's column, we delve into some stocks that will be announcing earnings, and that may benefit from the changing tide of investor sentiment. To be sure, there will be several areas of choppiness as we continue to be bombarded by the stormy realities of a turbulent economy.

Monday, May 19

The chart for Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) looks M'm M'm good. Sporting a smooth line with nary a ripple over the past 12 months, management has done a great job at keeping both company earnings and share price up, even in the face of significant food inflation. While shares have been condensing during the past few months, recently they have been rising with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Be on the outlook for earnings of 44 cents per share on revenue expectations of $1.89 billion. Now that I think of it. That's a lot of soup wrapped in tin-plated steel -- one of many materials that has seen its price almost double in the past six months.

Continue reading The week in preview: Smooth sailing ahead

Insiders stock up on retail stocks -- the ultimate clearance?

With numerous retail stocks hitting multi-year lows and daily headlines about weak consumer spending, something is interesting is happening: The people who should know the most about these companies, the insiders, are buying their own stock at an unprecedented clip, reports Bloomberg.

Executives at Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) and Dillards (NYSE: DDS) have been scooping up their own beaten-down stock. Executives at Foot Locker (NYSE: FL) and Chico's (NYSE: CHS) have also been significant buyers.

Is this a bullish signal? Perhaps. After all, it's been said that while CEOs sell their shares for all kinds of reasons, they only buy stock for one reason: they think it's going up. That's a pretty good maxim, but it can lead you astray in some cases.

Continue reading Insiders stock up on retail stocks -- the ultimate clearance?

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 10:09 AM

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