"Home prices are becoming affordable again, so the decline in prices is likely more than half over," say Dr. Marvin Appel and Gerald Appel of Systems & Forecasts.
Meanwhile, the technical experts believe that long-term investors can now look to get back into the real estate investment market and recommend two ETFs that are based on rental REITs.
"Many analysts do not expect the financial markets to improve significantly until home prices stop falling. The pace of existing home sales remains low, and available inventory relatively high, both indicating that buyers are not yet able to step into the market at current prices.
"However, that could change within a year. Home prices are becoming affordable again, so the decline in prices is likely more than half over.
"The median home price is now more affordable to the median household than at any time since the start of 2004. My analysis suggests that housing prices will have to fall a bit more, but the housing market is not far from being reasonably valued for the first time in five years.
Yesterday's announcement by Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) to cut but not eliminate its dividend payment got me wondering if there were other companies out there with absurdly high dividend yields that hadn't cut their payments. High-dividend yields are an old-fashioned way to look at companies and one that's fallen out of fashion as tech companies plowed their profits into research. But a 10% yield -- hey even a 7% yield -- is something we'd all be happy to find these days.
Traditionally, companies with high-dividend yields were those with low-growth potential, like utilities. Like Freddie, many of the current high-yield companies were created by a falling stock price. And like Freddie, they could always cut the dividend to keep the yield from getting out of whack. But, if they think the stock will rebound, maybe they won't cut it for fear the dividend cut would be yet another thing to drive off investors.
The highest yielding big company I found was Biovail (NYSE: BVF), Canada's biggest drug maker. The company was hit with an SEC complaint that key executives were lying about earnings. The company and the founder just settled a fight over the future direction of the company -- with the founder stepping aside. The stock, at about $10, has been cut in half in the last year. In May the company declared a quarterly dividend of 37.5 cents a share, which gives it a 15% yield at the current price.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) reported its Q4 and full-year results on Tuesday. The numbers looked very good to me (save for one, which I'll get to). P&G was up over 3% on Tuesday. Granted, the Dow saw one heck of a rally yesterday, but even so, P&G deserved a bid just due to its blue-chip corporate performance.
Revenues for the quarter increased 10%, and adjusted earnings per diluted share jumped over 19% to $0.80. For the year, revenues increased 9% and adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 15% to $3.50. As I stated in my earnings preview from the other day, Wall Street was looking for adjusted earnings to be around $0.78 per share. So P&G beat by two pennies.
Of course, the earnings beat is nice, but cash flow is even nicer. In fact, management likes to evaluate itself by comparing its free cash flow to net earnings. P&G would like the so-called "free cash flow productivity" metric to equal at least 90%. Well, shareholders need not worry, since productivity in these terms was 96% for the quarter and 106% for the fiscal year. Free cash flow for the year expanded by 21%, and it was more than enough to power P&G's great dividend.
The editor of The No-Load Fund Investor explains, "We favor both funds for many of the same reasons: both have experienced, top-flight management supported by robust credit-research staffs." Here's his review.
"Both bond funds have performed strongly over the long-term and during recent market turbulence. And each has a relatively open mandate that allows their respective management teams the flexibility to scoop up attractive bonds from diverse sectors of the bond market in pursuit of both capital appreciation and income.
"PIMCO Total Return is the world's biggest bond fund, and second large mutual fund of any stripe, with $128 billion in assets. The fund's popularity is a product of the outstanding track record and enormous reputation of its manager, Bill Gross. Its 10-year annualized return of 6% puts the fund in the top 5% of all intermediate-term bond funds over that time.
Famous maker of photographic equipment and supplies Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) reported earnings for the second quarter earlier this week, and they have not changed my opinion whatsoever on the stock. The shares are to be avoided at all cost.
Yeah, I've got to admit, I've been bearish on Eastman Kodak for a long time. It isn't difficult to hold such an opinion, of course. The company reported net income on a GAAP basis of $0.66 per share from continuing operations as opposed to a loss of $0.53 per share from continuing operations in the year-ago period. However, the results for the quarter include a gain of $0.88 per share from an IRS refund, offset by $0.09 per share in other items of net expense (this yields a net benefit of $0.79 per share). Considering that last year's Q2 was affected by a net of $0.92 per share due to restructuring charges (which were offset by gains on asset sales), it can be seen that the adjusted scenario isn't impressive in the least.
I just can't get past the utterly horrible story behind this company and its long-term performance. Simply put, Eastman Kodak just didn't adjust properly to the transition from film photography to digital photography as it was happening. It's trying to make amends, but it hasn't been easy. In fact, colleague Elizabeth Harrow recently wrote an informative article on the awful history of the company and how its stock has been one of the worst performers of the last decade. She discusses the impact of competition from businesses such as Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Canon (NYSE: CAJ), as well as the demand of one big stakeholder for management to expand its current buyback program.
Kellogg (NYSE: K), arch competitor of General Mills (NYSE: GIS), issued its Q2 missive to investors on Thursday, and from my viewpoint, things look pretty good at the famous breakfast icon(see more earnings news). Kellogg finds itself in a similar situation to Kraft (NYSE: KFT). The company has had to raise prices to keep up with input costs, and it's doing reasonably well in passing those increases along to the consumers who love its brands.
Net sales rose 11% to $3.3 billion. Earnings per diluted share were $0.82, which was one penny higher than analyst expectations, as cited in this Before the Bell piece. Considering that Kellogg was fighting inflation and significantly increasing its marketing spend to keep its product line humming, the 9% expansion in the bottom line can be looked upon in a positive light. Of course, the weak dollar did help the top line. Stripping out currency effects and acquisitions, the revenue growth was closer to 6%. Still, Kellogg is holding up as best it can, and although free cash flow for the six-month period was down 10%, there still were enough funds to service the dividend obligation.
Kellogg has reduced costs, raised its guidance, and initiated a new share-repurchase scheme worth $500 million that will begin sometime toward the latter part of the year. The cereal king thinks it will now do somewhere between $2.95 and $3.00 per share in terms of earnings. Those thinking of adding Kellogg to a long-term portfolio might benefit from waiting for a higher yield, maybe in the 3% area, considering how volatile the markets are.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
CBS (NYSE: CBS) -- major competitor of Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC, News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Fox and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC -- issued a lackluster earnings report for Q2 on Thursday. The market sent the stock down 3% at the end of the trading day. The outlook and the continued softness in the economy seems to be giving Wall Street pause in terms of CBS' prospects. Also, the top-line growth was nothing to write home about.
Revenues increased a scant 1% to $3.4 billion. Adjusted earnings per share on a diluted basis, which exclude a benefit from an asset sale, were $0.53 versus $0.57 in the year-ago period. Here are a couple more bad stats. Operating income on an adjusted basis took a dive of 13%. Free cash flow was almost 19% worse this quarter compared to last year's Q2. Not very cool, huh? According to this AP article, CBS beat by a penny, but is that really so impressive given the full context of things? No.
Still, I don't think shareholders should revolt just yet. The free cash flow on the six-month timeframe went up 6%, and even with the decrease experienced in Q2, the cash flow was enough to cover the dividend, which is a major attractant of the stock. Income investors who like the media sector definitely have to keep CBS on their list of potential buys, considering the company's 6%+ yield.
CBS believes that the advertising slowdown will inhibit growth for the rest of the year. So don't expect any fireworks in upcoming quarters. I like that management will be getting rid of fifty radio stations and intends to use the proceeds to buy back stock. That's shareholder friendly, of course. What probably won't be shareholder friendly is the stock itself. I'm not sure it's going to do much of anything while the economy suffers through its current malaise. But you do get that dividend. If investors are patient, then they should see some capital appreciation down the line.
Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.
"If you have been thinking about putting some new cash to work, now's a great time to do so. In general, municipal bonds are about as cheap as they've been in decades.
"Munis are really very simple instruments. When most states, cities or even counties engage in large-scale construction projects, they typically issue debt in exchange for the money they need in the form of a municipal bond.
"Because the Fed considers them tax-free instruments, munis with lower rates can actually equal far higher taxable yields. For instance, a 3%-to-5% tax-free note can be equal to a taxable one of 5% to 7% under normal circumstances, particularly for investors in higher tax brackets.
"But these are hardly 'normal' times. Especially when you consider that many munis are actually paying more than taxable treasuries at the moment.
"Our favorite play is the Nuveen Quality Income Municipal Fund, which is paying a juicy 5.60% tax free at a time when 10-year treasuries are offer a taxable 4.10%. Put another way, in order to equalize the two, we'd have to find a taxable yield of 7.82%.
"Any further market weakness creates creates another opportunity to acquire some outstanding stocks," suggests Kelley Wright, noted for his focus on blue chip, dividend-paying stocks.
In his Investment Quality Trends newsletter, he looks at the benefits of keeping a long-term focus, the value of dividend districutions to an investor's long-term returns, and his current "timely ten" picks for conservative investor.
"The cash dividend for the Dow is $322.40. One year ago the dividend was $284.06. Amidst all the turmoil in the markets and the economy something must be going right with the Dow 30 companies because the dividend is ever climbing.
"Dividends, as we all know, can only come from the reality of earnings; you can't pay what you don't have. The dividend yield on the Dow is currently 2.66%, which represents an 11% downside to a 3.0% yield and the historically repetitive area of Undervalue.
"Will the Average make it down to that level? No one knows but that isn't the point. At current levels the upside is FAR greater, particularly in many of the stocks in our Undervalued area.
It wasn't a super quarter for Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB). The consumer-products company only met expectations set for it by Wall Street. But, sometimes, that's pretty good, given the conditions the business is working in. As a matter of fact, I see that Brent Archer penned a recent post discussing how inflation is hurting Kimberly-Clark (and just about every other entity, as well). At that time, the company projected a $900 million increase in terms of inflationary pressures, double management's previous estimate. So, looking through this current earnings release, I can't help but feel that things could have been worse.
For the second quarter, net sales rose 11% to $5 billion. Earnings on an adjusted basis dropped a penny compared to the year-ago period, coming in at $1.03 per share. Like I said, that matched expectations, according to Briefing.com. Guidance for the future also appears to be in-line. Kimberly-Clark seems, to me at least, to be holding its own during a difficult time. And here's a couple cash-flow data points that should appeal to many investors. Operating cash flow for the quarter was up 16% to $753 million. Prudent management of the company's working capital benefited this metric. And on a six-month basis, cash from operations also increased, albeit not by much. That sum rose a little under 2% to almost $1.2 billion. I like to see good cash-flow numbers like that, especially for dividend-paying concerns.
And speaking of dividends, Kimberly-Clark's stock is trading at a great yield, over 4%. Of course, that means that investors buying today will need a lot of patience. You'll be paid to wait, but if you're into fast capital-appreciation rates, you probably won't get it here, not in this trading environment. Inflation will continue to be a concern for it, as well as consumer-product colleagues such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and Energizer (NYSE: ENR).
"They don't get much more blue-chip than General Electric (NYSE: GE)," says Nilus Mattive. I his top-notch Dividend Superstars, he takes a look at the industrial gain which offers an indicated yield of 4.4%.
"GE is the only company that has remained in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from day one, the company was founded in 1890 by none other than Thomas Alva Edison to market his various inventions.
"GE's broad diversification is both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, it affords the firm plenty of protection from a major decline in any one business.
"On the other, it has led to a very complicated enterprise with inherently limited growth prospects. Yet despite the company's size, it has still managed to increase its revenues internally by about 9% a year.
I finally got around to investing a portion of my stimulus check. I had a few stocks in mind for the money, but at the end of the day, I decided that I should buy shares of a high-yielding blue chip for the very long term. It really wasn't a difficult decision. The winner of my stimulus-check buy was none other than General Electric (NYSE: GE).
I've been talking about GE a lot lately, but if you're an investor, you know there's a lot to talk about this conglomerate. No, I don't mean fundamentally, necessarily, I mean that its current yield is simply amazing. GE has dropped a lot this year, and it's gotten the attention of many value investors. In fact, I purchased some GE shares not too long ago when they were trading about six bucks higher than the current price for what I hoped would be a short-term trade. I admit it, I was wrong.
I still think my reasoning at the time was correct, and I continue to hold those shares, but I also hold a long-term position of GE that I add to several times a year with the intent of holding for the next couple decades, maybe even beyond that. It is this position that received the shares acquired through the beneficence of the government. Although some might argue that I should have improved the cost basis of my trade, I decided against such action, since I think GE might be down for a while. If I wanted to use the money for a trade, there are probably better ideas out there for it than GE. But long-term, GE's current 4.7% yield will probably turn into an effective yield of better than 20%, assuming the dividend continues to rise in the future as it has in the past (I believe it will).
The only other stock that provided real competition for my stimulus windfall is Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). However, the GE yield was just too beautiful. Granted, Coke is obviously the more focused business, and its brand equity is impeccable. But a near 3% yield is no match for a 4.7% yield. I think I made the right decision, but time will tell. No matter what, though, anyone who buys GE now better be patient. Short-term traders might not be rewarded.
Disclosure: I own Coke and GE; positions can change at any time.
General Mills (NYSE: GIS), arch competitor of fellow cereal seller Kellogg (NYSE: K), posted some good news for shareholders on Monday. In an otherwise gloomy day that saw the Dow remain below the 12,000 level and inflationary pressures still exerting a hold over the market, General Mills proved that dividends are at least one island of safety in a sea of trouble.
The company indicated that it will now pay an annual dividend of $1.72 per share. Previously, the annual dividend was set at $1.57 per share. This is a nice example of double-digit appreciation of approximately 10%. Based on Monday's closing price, General Mills' stock now yields a hearty 2.7%.
As a long-term idea, General Mills is certainly one of the best. As I observed with Kellogg, you can put this one on perpetual dollar-cost-averaging. However, with the stock in 52-week-high territory, and with prices for commodities, especially corn, still exerting a negative effect on businesses, I'd be a bit cautious about entering just now. Is it possible one might get General Mills closer to a 3% yield? I can't predict the short-term future, but my gut says that a pullback is inevitable. Even with cool dividend increases, stocks can return to the low end of a 52-week range at any point. Just look at Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and the recent pressure its stock has been under. And Coke is a dividend stalwart. Nevertheless, I am bullish on General Mills' future. Just watch out for commodity trends, and perhaps remain patient for better prices on the shares.
Disclosure: I own Coke; positions can change at any time.
If you ask me, General Electric (NYSE: GE) is being priced as if the Cloverfield monster will be attacking Wall Street any day now. Thank goodness that an insider apparently thinks that GE is a great buy at these levels.
According to the AP, vice chairman Michael A. Neal purchased 35,000 shares this past Wednesday. The price? $29.99 per share. Not bad. At $29.99, GE's stock sports a nice, juicy dividend yield of 4.1%. I was pretty happy when I read this piece of news because, frankly, I've been wrong about GE. As I wrote recently, I thought GE would have been trending higher by now. The exact opposite has happened. So, it's kind of cool that an insider is buying. Of course, I'm not naive or utterly seduced by insider transactions. They are definitely important enough to keep tabs on, but let's face it, GE is in a vicious downtrend, and I understand that the stock might be haunting these levels for a while to come. The economy and the markets are, to understate the fact, somewhat spastic these days.
Here's another thing about the GE story I find incredibly interesting. A Bloomberg article says that GE's shares haven't existed with a dividend yield over 4% since 1984. That's more than 20 years ago. Again, there's nothing in the rulebook that says Wall Street institutions have to start buying now just because of GE's super-income story. As far as I'm concerned, though, GE's stock has to be in a good position. The insider buying may or may not help, but that yield is objective, attractive, and certainly sustainable. I'll continue to hold my GE trade, no matter what the technicals may tell me.
Disclosure: I own GE; positions can change at any time.
"Housing starts have swooned, foreclosures have jumped and home prices saw their steepest drop in 26 years," notes income expert Carla Pasternak, who nevertheless is suggesting a real estate investment.
"REITs and housing are both real estate, but that's where the likenesses begin and end. Property-holding equity REITs invest in commercial real estate. And commercial properties continue to generate steady cash flow from rental income, thanks to long-term leases.
"Above-average dividends are what allow REITs to pack a punch. These companies must distribute at least 90% of their profits to shareholders, making them especially attractive to income investors.
"Founded in 1992, Omega manages a $1.3 billion portfolio of over 200 hospitals and nursing homes in diverse locations across 28 states. The company leases the properties to established healthcare operators.