No direction at the Fed

Douglas McIntyre — Sun, 06 Jan 2008 14:40:00 EST

Filed under: Economic Data, Housing, Federal Reserve

The vice chairman of the Fed says that there is a great deal of debate within the body about cutting rates. Based on a speech by Donald Kohn, Reuters writes that "hints at a split between policy-makers that critics find worrisome, because it raises doubts about how far the Fed will be prepared to cut interest rates to shield the economy from a slumping housing market, increasing the odds of a recession."

Stated more directly, it is not clear whether concerns about inflation or recession will govern the actions by the Fed in the early parts of 2008.

If the Fed leans toward viewing inflation as the greater of two evils, the half point cut that investors expect later in the month may end up being only a quarter point. No one can guess what that will do to the market. It would be hard to quarrel with the fact that it could push the Dow down 250 to 500 points, at least temporarily. Sectors like housing and automotive could fall even further.

Debate at the Fed may have a modest effect on the economy, but it could be the undoing of the stock market.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

No direction at the Fed originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 06 Jan 2008 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Declining oil + Positive Fed talk = Market rally

Jonathan Berr — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 16:01:00 EST

Filed under: Good news, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Comcast Cl'A' (CMCSA), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Procter and Gamble (PG), Texas Instruments (TXN), Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Bear Stearns Cos (BSC), Housing, Federal Reserve

The market today took its head out of the oven, thanks to a decline in oil prices and talk from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn reinforcing the need for further rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 322 points to 13,280.76 while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index surged 74.86 to 2,655.66. The S&P 500 jumped 37.94 to 14,566.17. CNBC's anchors were positively orgasmic, saying it was the best one-day point gain for the year, even though home sales and durable goods orders continue to be weak.

Beaten-up financial stocks rebounded. Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER), which had gotten pounded because of subprime mortgage concerns, surged $4.42, or 8.3%, to $57.49. Citigroup (NYSE: C), another stock in Wall Street's doghouse until recently, jumped $2.13. or 7%, to $32.45. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH), Bear Stearns & Co. (NYSE: BSC), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and even Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) also showed gains.

"Kohn's comments just add to a perception that the Fed is embarking on a sustained path of easing,'' Oppenheimer Holdings Chief Investment Strategist Michael Metz told Bloomberg News. "There's also huge relief that the worst of the financial crisis may be behind us.''

Other stocks showing gains include Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA), which dodged a huge regulatory bullet from the FCC. Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), perhaps the most sensitive to worries about consumer spending, also rose, as did tech heavyweights such as Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).

Not everyone was impressed.

Tom Higgins, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, told the Wall Street Journal that "it's more of a technical correction of oversold conditions.There's no fundamental reason that today should [bring a] rally."

Declining oil + Positive Fed talk = Market rally originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Nov 2007 16:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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