double-dip recession posts

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Closing Bell: Down to the Wire (CSCO, GMCR, BBY, JPM, RDWR, ZUMZ, GAP)

Tech is alive, retail is not dead, wholesale inventory didn't kill us, and M&A continues. What double-dip recession? The markets were all in positive territory until the end of the day and the final decision between red and black on the day was not a known certainty until the final minutes. Gold hit a new all-time high as uncertainty and risk still reigns.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,526.49 -17.64 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,121.10 -0.80 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,289.77 +4.06 (0.18%)

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Continue reading Closing Bell: Down to the Wire (CSCO, GMCR, BBY, JPM, RDWR, ZUMZ, GAP)

Buffett Says the Economy Is Hunky-Dory

Warren BuffettWarren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) has holdings that span many industries, like health care, consumer goods, energy, insurance, real estate, rail and so on. Because of this, he has a good perspective on economic sentiment. And, according to a recent speech at the Montana Economic Development Summit, Buffett is unabashedly bullish on things.

First of all, he thinks a double-dip recession is highly unlikely. Then again, it appears that many investors believe the same. But, the question is: Can the U.S. economy show more robust growth?

Continue reading Buffett Says the Economy Is Hunky-Dory

Factory Orders Nosedive; Builder Sentiment Plummets

These numbers are shocking:
  • The New York Fed's factory gauge decreased to -2.7 this month from +10.1 in July.
  • Shipments fell to -11.5 from +6.3.
  • The manufacturers outlook index fell to its lowest level since July 2009.
Homebuilders, also, are in a deep funk. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index plunged to 13, the lowest level since March 2009.

Continue reading Factory Orders Nosedive; Builder Sentiment Plummets

Call it a Milder U.S. Recovery, but Not a Double-Dip (So Far)

Austerity measures in Europe, and concerns that U.S. job growth will be inadequate (below 150,000 new jobs per month) in the third and fourth quarters, has understandably increased concern about a slowing U.S. economic recovery.

But are the stars starting to line-up for something worse than that, from a macroeconomic standpoint, such as a double-dip recession? Perhaps not. Here's why: historically, an inverted yield curve precedes a double-dip recession. So far, the yield curve is not close to inversion.

Continue reading Call it a Milder U.S. Recovery, but Not a Double-Dip (So Far)

Flattening Yield Curve a Problem

As stock prices are plunging around the world, demand for U.S. Treasuries -- which are viewed as a safe haven for investors during times of economic uncertainty -- is skyrocketing.

This increase in demand is pushing the price of Treasuries higher and, thanks to the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields, is pushing Treasury yields lower. We are especially seeing this happening at the long-term end of the yield curve.

As longer-term yields drop, the Treasury yield curve is flattening. At the beginning of June, yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries were near 3.4% and 4.3%, respectively. Now, yields on 10-year Treasuries have dropped below 3% -- their lowest level since April 2009 -- and yields on 30-year Treasuries are flirting with 4%.

This is a potential problem for two reasons.

Continue reading Flattening Yield Curve a Problem

U-6 unemployment number suggests recovery has not started

While this article is a few days old, I still found its message rather interesting. Jeff Cox's article takes a look at the U-6 number of unemployment. This number is the "broadest" measure of unemployment, and it shows that roughly 17.5% of Americans are either without a job or underemployed. This is the highest reading since the U-6 number became an official labor statistic in 1994. The U-3 rate (which is what most investors follow) came in at 10.2% in October, which was the highest reading since June 1983.

Continue reading U-6 unemployment number suggests recovery has not started

President Obama cautions against double-dip recession

Although some members of his administration don't hold Fox News in too high of regard, President Barack Obama did sit down with the news outlet to discuss the economy. In the interview, President Obama offered what some are calling his "sternest warning" about containing deficits. President Obama believes that a further compilation of government debt could lead to a double-dip recession.

The president believes that his administration faces a "delicate balance of trying to boost the economy and spur job creation," but the administration has to set the economy on "a path toward long-term deficit reduction." He noted that it is important "to recognize ... that at some point, people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession."

Continue reading President Obama cautions against double-dip recession

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DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 08:27 AM

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