doug kass posts
FeedPosted Aug 27th 2009 9:30AM by Jim Cramer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Citigroup Inc. (C), Sprint Nextel Corp (S), CIT Group (CIT), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Amer Intl Group (AIG), Alcatel-LucentADS (ALU), Vonage Holdings (VG), Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the bizarre rules these days make it worth looking at stocks through a different lens.
How much should we care about low-dollar speculation? How much should we care about the incessant trading in CIT (NYSE: CIT) (Cramer's Take) and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take), Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) (Cramer's Take), or Vonage (NYSE: VG) (Cramer's Take) and Sprint (NYSE: S) (Cramer's Take)? Or even Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take)?
First, I have to tell you that I worry about it less than I used to. Why? Because when we used to have rules and government officials that were willing to speak the truth about stocks, we wouldn't have these single-digit players out there every day. But without it, how in heck can people not believe that Fannie and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) are the biggest and best bets on a turn in housing?
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Reasonable speculation
Posted Jun 8th 2009 2:00PM by Daleela Farina (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Conventions and conferences, Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Housing, Recession, Financial Crisis
In celebration of Barry Ritholtz's critically-acclaimed new book Bailout Nation, he held The Big Picture Conference, which I was fortunate to attend.
Here are the main points from the most reputable speakers, Congressman Alan Grayson, Nassim Taleb, Doug Kass, and Josh Rosner.
Florida Congressman Alan Grayson discussed how systemic risk is an excuse for socialism and that interconnectedness is the main reason that these institutions are "too big to fail." In fact, these institutions no longer hold social or economic purpose, they are simply too big to exist.
Continue reading The 'big picture' of our economy
Posted Aug 21st 2008 10:17AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Politics, Housing, Recession
I am not sure that Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) will make it through the month as public companies. Barron's quoted an anonymous senior official -- who sounds an awful lot like Hank Paulson to me -- that unless Fannie and Freddie could raise at least $10 billion each, the government would bail them out while wiping out common shareholders and eliminating the preferred dividend. Since then, investors have been dumping shares of Fannie and Freddie like there's no tomorrow.
Who wins and who loses if Fannie and Freddie's shareholders are wiped out? As I said on CNBC's Power Lunch this afternoon, the winners are investors who shorted Fannie and Freddie years ago and are now reaping enormous profits. I also think that some Wall Street investment banks will win big as they get the job of selling off Fannie and Freddie's pieces. The losers are their biggest common and preferred shareholders -- including some well known mutual funds.
The winners are:
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Jim Rogers, Rogers Holdings - Rogers originally shorted Freddie and Fannie in March 2006 and appeared on
Bloomberg on November 20, 2007 to discuss why he did it and where he thought their stocks would go.
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Doug Noland, Prudent Bear - As I
posted, since the late 1990s, Noland's research has concluded that Freddie and Fannie would "shudder" when the US credit bubble eventually burst. Noland has profited from the short bets he made -- but he says it is emotionally painful to watch them fail.
Continue reading Fannie/Freddie Flameout: Winners and Losers
Posted Jan 4th 2007 10:01AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Industry, Centex Corp (CTX), D.R.Horton (DHI), KB HOME (KBH), Lennar Corp'A' (LEN)

Bill Miller, the famed Legg Mason fund manager, was on television last week. He said he is long on housing stocks.
In Barron's
Up and Down Wall Street column (subscription required), Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners said he was short housing stocks - no big surprise there. Kass referred to order cancellation as the reasoning for his bearishness.
Typically, publicly traded homebuilders have cancellation rates of 15% of orders. However, that number has jumped considerably. Cancellation rates of publicly traded homebuilders:
- Centex (NYSE: CTX) - 37%
- DR Horton (NYSE: DHI) - 40%
- KB Homes (NYSE: KBH) - 53%
- Lennar (NYSE: LEN) - 31%
- Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) - 36%
- Beazer (NYSE: BZH) - 57%
- Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) - 35%
- MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC) - 49%
- Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) - 50%
These numbers (from the Barron's article) are so bad that the worst might be unfolding right now.
TheFly's advice, Miller tends to be too early and Kass is often too negative when the worst is already priced in the stocks. I'd say, start following these stocks again, expecting a bottom in the spring and early summer.
The most recent rally is mostly from an oversold condition. I'd wait for another correction and see where the industry fundamentals stand.
Posted Dec 12th 2006 4:38PM by Doug French (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Good news, Newspapers, Goldman Sachs Group (GS)
Earlier today, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) reported that it raked in a whopping $9.34 billion in 2006, a record-high in the history of organized finance. The company plans to pay out $16.5 billion of that to its employees, to the tune of $622,000 per person. Goldman's fiscal fourth quarter saw profits increase 93% year-over-year, to $3.16 billion, or $6.59 per share, well above the consensus estimate of $6.36. (You can read more about the numbers here.)
Goldman's record year could signal similar results from the other investment banks set to announce their earnings over the next two weeks, and the Times article goes on to describe the incredible economic boost these numbers will give downtown Manhattan. Purveyors of high-end goods and services are rubbing their hands for a very merry holiday season.
This news is even more striking when you consider that Doug Kass over at TheStreet.com lists Goldman going private as a possible (if unlikely) surprise for 2007. You have to give credit where credit is due: If Goldman is set to leave us, it sure went out with a bang.