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Do you feel better about the Dow? You shouldn't!

So, the past few days have been cool ones for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. The market saw a nice uptrend. Click here and set the Dow to the one-month timeframe; that graph says it all. It looks like things may be okay from now on, right? Well, don't bet on it. CNBC.com reminds us about the dreaded bear-market rally. And I completely agree with the thesis: we are most likely headed back down once this market happiness runs its course.

It would simply be too easy for investors to have seen the bottom. No way, not with all the problems going on in terms of inflation and financial disasters. Oh yeah, oil has retreated, that's true, but I don't think the energy monster is in permanent hibernation. Not by a long shot. The problem with the past few days is that it plays with investors' emotions. It's played with mine, certainly. I haven't bought a stock in a while, and I really want to buy something. Maybe add to my General Electric (NYSE: GE) trade, my Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) holding. I love the dip in Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and really want to get serious about grabbing shares in Mr. Softy. My 401(k) has a lot of money waiting to be put to work. I want to transfer some of those monies into one or two of the quality mutual-fund offerings at my disposal. I can't stand having money tied up in stable-value instruments.

I just can't make a move yet. I feel that lower prices will be upon us sooner rather than later. Already, many are talking about buying opportunities for oil futures, and I fear those who hold such opinion will turn out to be correct. When oil rises again, stocks will most likely fall, and this summer fun will be just another memory of a day at the beach. I'm not saying there aren't buys out there. Again, Microsoft is looking attractive. Value investing, however, isn't. It's not the style of the day. And when value investing isn't the style of the day, your only hope is to become a deep-value investor and pray that patience is eventually rewarded.

Continue reading Do you feel better about the Dow? You shouldn't!

Market tanks amid fear, uncertainty and doubt

The glow is coming off yesterday's huge Fed rate cut. Just as I expected, the market gave back much of yesterday's huge gains.

Investors sent the Dow Jones industrial average down 293 points, or 2.36%, to 12,099.66, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 58.30, or 2.57%, to 2,209.66 and the S&P 500 tumbled 32.32, or 2.43%, to 1298.42. Market watchers, who were jubilant yesterday, were downright depressed today.

"This whole market is driven by fear right now,'' James Gaul, a portfolio manager at Boston Advisors LLC told Bloomberg News. "Investors are thinking more and more this will be a long and drawn out recession, and that pulls down commodity prices and energy prices.''

"Clearly there is fear. I would say the needle is pointing more toward fear than greed right now," said
George Shipp, chief investment officer at Scott & Stringfellow, in an interview with the Associated Press.

O.K, we get the picture. People are scared. Fear rules the day.

That's the case for now, but the funny thing is this fear will not last. The slightest good news will send the market skyward yet again.

You can get whiplash watching this market rise and fall.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+49.9111,496.57
NASDAQ-29.522,282.78
S&P 500+0.361,260.68

Last updated: July 20, 2008: 05:31 AM

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