dow theory forecasts posts
FeedPosted Sep 9th 2009 9:30AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, General Dynamics Corp (GD), Financial Crisis
"Investors considering high-yield stocks should consider financial strength; in our quantitative model, Quadrix, we assess profit margins, interest coverage, and debt levels," says Richard Moroney.
In Dow Theory Forecasts, a newsletter that has been published for over 5 decades -- he looks at two stocks that score high in this area: drug manufacturer, AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) and defense industry player, General Dynamics (NYSE: GD). Here, the advisor reviews the two companies.
"AstraZeneca's operating cash flow jumped 24% in the first half of 2009, allowing the company to retire $3 billion in debt since the end of 2008.
Continue reading AstraZeneca & General Dynamics: Financial strength
Posted Jul 29th 2009 3:20PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Stocks to Buy, Recession
"Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) has vast holdings, but its strategy is simple: Support a deep pipeline of new drugs and medical devices with an aggressive acquisition strategy and cost controls," notes blue chip investor Richard Moroney.
In his Dow Theory Forecasts, he adds, "And despite the recession, J&J has kept its financial footing, remaining one of the few companies with the top credit rating of AAA." Here's his long term outlook.
"This year the U.S. pharmaceutical market is expected to contract for the first time in 50 years as fewer people visit doctors or start new therapies for chronic conditions.
"Beyond 2009, an economic recovery should reinvigorate J&J, though it is too early to determine whether health-care reform will help or harm the company.
Continue reading Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): A triple A play
Posted May 21st 2009 10:30AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy
"In recent months, DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV) has shown that pay television is recession-resistant; indeed, the company has been dishing up subscriber growth," says Richard Moroney.
In his Dow Theory Forecasts, the advisor explains why the satellite-TV system operator is among those select stocks consider to be "Focus List" buys -- the top long-term buy rating in their model portfolio.
"In the nearly 15 years since DirecTV sold its first satellite-television system, the company has grown to serve more than 18 million U.S. subscribers, or 16% of the country's households. DirecTV also operates in Latin America, where it generates 12% of revenue.
Continue reading Tune in to DirecTV (DTV)
Posted Mar 31st 2009 12:30PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
"We see smooth seas ahead for deepsea driller Oceaneering International (NYSE: OII)," says Richard Moroney.
The editor of the blue chip advisory, Dow Theory Forecasts, explains, "Most of the world's untapped oil reserves lie under the ocean floor, and oil producers are spending an increasing portion of their capital budgets on deepwater drilling."
"While oil prices don't directly affect Oceaneering International's profits and cash flows, they do move the stock. Oil prices fell by two-thirds in the second half of 2008, pushing Oceaneering shares under $20 for the first time since July 2005.
Continue reading Smooth seas for Oceaneering International (OII)
Posted Feb 6th 2009 2:15PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
"What's going on with Transocean (NYSE RIG), the owner of the world's biggest fleet of offshore drilling rigs?" asks Richard Moroney, a specialist in blue chip stocks.
In his Dow Theory Forecasts, he explains, "The shares plunged 67% - nearly $100 a share - in 2008, and we can't blame the usual suspects." Here, he explains why he continues to rate thes stock a "Focus List Buy" in his blue chip-focused advisory service.
"Poor operating performance? Wall Street expects 2008 per-share profits of $14.34, up 68%. Shaky future? Transocean is expected to grow per-share earnings 4% in 2009 and 10% annually over the next five years.
"Fundamentals eroding? Not at all. The balance sheet is sturdy and the backlog stout at $41 billion, or three times expected 2009 revenue. Rather, we see two chief contributors to Transocean's steep slide, and neither should jeopardize long-term prospects.
Continue reading Transocean (RIG): A platform for profits?
Posted Feb 4th 2009 9:30AM by Sam Collins (RSS feed)

I'd like to make a comment on the "Dow Theory" today: Since there were several write-ups circulating Tuesday about a new "bear-market signal" given by the theory on Monday, it is worth addressing.
Some analysts were all atwitter, saying that Monday's close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Transports broke under the January lows. Thus, they said, a new Dow sell signal was triggered.
The theory states that if a double confirmation occurs, (i.e., that if two of the three Dow averages make a new high or low) then a trend is confirmed.
Well, the Transportation Average did fall below both its January and November intra-day low and closing low. (I mention January only because one report said that it is relevant -- but it actually has no significance at all.) And the Industrial Average did break the closing low of January -- but that is irrelevant, since the market's lows were made in November.
Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Dow theory put to the test
Posted Jan 12th 2009 8:00AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2009
This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.
"Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) -- which has a highly effective though risky treatment for multiple sclerosis called Tysabri -- is our top pick for 2009," says analyst Richard Moroney.
The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, an advisory that has been published for more than 50 years, explains, "Despite superior growth prospects, the Tysabri concerns have kept Biogen's shares under pressure.
"In the past two months, consensus profit estimates have crept upwards for Biogen Idec. Per-share profits are expected to climb 33% in 2008 and 9% in 2009. Over the next five years, profits are expected to climb 12% annually. Two factors support this outlook.
"First, Biogen plows nearly a third of its revenue into research and development, raising expectations of a fertile lineup of new drugs. Second, there's Tysabri, a highly effective though risky treatment for multiple sclerosis.
Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Posted Dec 1st 2008 9:54AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy
"Investors should keep a defensive posture," says Richard Moroney. However, the editor of the blue chip advisory service, Dow Theory Forecasts, see opportunity in two drug stocks that he has just added to his buy list.
"In general, we prefer to let the market's action signal that the point of maximum pessimism has passed before deploying our cash reserves. But we intend to remain engaged, looking for stocks capable of bucking the bearish trend.
"Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) produces biotechnology drugs that treat non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and multiple sclerosis. Per-share profits jumped 69% and operating cash flow surged 71% in the September quarter.
"Wall Street expects per-share-profit growth of 9% in 2009 and 7% in 2010, but good news on Biogen's most-promising drug could render those targets conservative.
"At 12 times estimated 2009 earnings, Biogen shares are the cheapest of the six largest U.S. biotech stocks. Biogen is being initiated as a Focus List Buy and a Long-Term Buy.
"AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) is being added to the Buy List. The British drugmaker offers an intriguing blend of value and growth potential. A study released this month showed that the company's cholesterol drug Crestor reduced the risk of various heart problems by 44%.
"The study could potentially expand Crestor's addressable market to include millions of new patients, though AstraZeneca is soft-pedaling the potential benefits. AstraZeneca, which earns a Quadrix Overall score of 94 and yields 4.5%, is being added to the Buy List."
Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Posted Aug 31st 2008 11:00AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, International Business Machines (IBM), Stocks to Buy, Technology
This post is part of a report entitled "Six-pack of technology favorites." You can read about the other top tech stock picks here.
"For more than a decade, International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) lived up to its reputation as a slow-growing, stodgy company," says Richard Moroney.
The editor of the blue chip advisory, Dow Theory Forecasts, contends, "But over the last 12 months, the picture changed. Strong operating momentum is now propelling genuine operational growth despite U.S. economic weakness."
"Acquisitions and cost cuts have accounted for most of IBM's growth in recent years. In the 10 years ended 2006, sales increased at an annualized rate of less than 2%, and the company lost both market share and in?uence.
"However, sales growth has accelerated in each of the last three quarters, and per-share pro?ts have risen at least 23% in each period. Consensus estimates, trending upward over the last month, project per-share-pro?t growth of 24% in 2008 and 11% in 2009.
"A broad business mix has helped the company keep growing during the economic slowdown. IBM may still be best known for its hardware, but the company's strength over the last year has stemmed from the services and software businesses, which tend to be less economically sensitive than hardware.
"Hardware accounted for about 18% of sales in the six months ended June, while services represented 58% and software generated 20%. Financing operations brought in most of the last 4%.
"While the current economic climate has pinched the consumer, companies are still investing heavily in new technology. IBM's products and services help customers improve ef?ciency, productivity, and security, which in turn can reduce costs. In the six months ended June, IBM's revenue rose 12%, while per share-pro?ts jumped 34%. Revenue from services increased 17% in the six-month period.
Continue reading IBM: 'The picture has changed'
Posted Aug 28th 2008 5:15PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Newsletters, International Business Machines (IBM), Broadcom Corp'A' (BRCM), Stocks to Buy
With concerns over recession, turmoil in the financial sector, fear of rising rates, high market volatility and a rising aversion to risk, many investors have been avoiding technology stocks.
Investors have feared that these economic headwinds will dampen both consumer spending for technology products and reduced capital expenditures for technology in the corporate sector.
Despite these concerns, some of the newsletter industry's leading advisors are looking beyond the current malaise and seeing longer-term value in some of the tech sector's leading players. They believe that much of the "bad news" is already reflected in the price of the shares, with little recognition being given to their longer-term potential.
For those willing to go against the crowd and buy, as they say, "while blood is running in the street," we offer a six-pack of technology stocks that the some top advisors considers to be among their favorite ideas.
Continue reading A six-pack of technology favorites
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