downgrade posts
FeedPosted Oct 1st 2009 10:30AM by Elizabeth Harrow (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Activision Inc (ATVI), Technical Analysis
Bright and early this morning, Goldman Sachs downgraded gaming guru Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) from Conviction Buy to Buy. In a note to clients, the brokerage firm explained that it sees greater relative potential for near-term price appreciation in other stocks. Goldman maintains a six-month price target of $16 on ATVI, implying expected upside of more than 29% from the shares' closing price on Wednesday.
ATVI is a ripe target for downgrades, if only because analysts are so lopsidedly optimistic toward the "Guitar Hero" parent. Zacks reports that the equity has attracted no fewer than 18 Strong Buy recommendations, plus two Buys -- with not a single Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell to be found.
Continue reading Activision Blizzard booted from Conviction Buy list
Posted Sep 10th 2009 8:00AM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst upgrades and downgrades
Early this morning, Societe Generale cut GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to "sell" from "hold." The brokerage blamed the downgrade on the "looming threat" of generics to GSK's respiratory drug Advair. SocGen believes the market is "underestimating" the chances for a generic competitor to Advair in the U.S. by 2011.
Technically, the stock is facing resistance at the $40 level -- a level that has provided a hurdle in the past. Along with this potential resistance is the possibility that the equity may slip back below its 20-month moving average. This trendline has acted as resistance in the past, and now that the shares are positioned north of this trendline, it could act as support. The problem is that this trendline is in a sharp descending pattern.
It isn't all bad news for GSK, the good news is that the equity should find some support from its 10-week moving average. With this trendline providing support, any potential drop from this morning's news could be limited.
Continue reading GlaxoSmithKline downgraded by SocGen
Posted Jul 17th 2009 1:00PM by Elizabeth Harrow (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Southwest Airlines (LUV), Options
Late Thursday, Moody's Investors Service announced that it might downgrade its credit ratings for Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV). In a statement, the ratings agency said the airline's Baa1 senior unsecured rating is at risk, due to the likelihood of weak demand trends persisting into 2010.
The downgrade warning comes shortly after LUV slashed airfares dramatically to remain competitive, with some one-way flights running as low as $30 during a recent promotion. "Even with the benefits of Southwest's advantageous cost structure, the current yield environment is likely to challenge Southwest to restore credit metrics to levels supportive of the current rating," said Moody's in a statement.
In addition to the fundamental concerns cited by Moody's, LUV is also facing some challenges on the charts. The stock has shed 52.8% during the past 52 weeks, and long-term resistance from its 10-month moving average looms directly overhead. This trendline hasn't been toppled on a monthly closing basis since September 2008.
Continue reading Southwest Airlines warned of possible Moody's downgrade
Posted May 27th 2009 2:30PM by Connie Madon (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, Economic data, Recession, Financial Crisis
Warning: This stuff may be a bit scary. Let's start off by reviewing the events of the past few days. Standard & Poor's downgraded the sovereign debt of Britain from "stable" to "negative" because Britain's debt could equal 100% of GDP and stay there for a few years.
Now word has traveled across the pond and has spread concern here in the U.S. Our debt is exploding and will also rise faster than our GDP. At the end of 2008, U.S. federal debt will equal 41% of GDP. It is expected to rise to 82% of GDP in 10 years and could reach 100% of GDP in fifteen years. Such a debt burden is incompatible with our triple-A rating.
It is feared that such a debt burden would be worse than the recent financial crisis. If we fast forward 10 years, the estimates are that our debt will be $1.2 trillion while our tax revenues would be $2 trillion. This means that we would need a 60% tax increase to balance the budget.
Continue reading High U.S. debt burden rattles policy makers
Posted May 14th 2009 7:00AM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Starbucks (SBUX), McDonald's (MCD)
It has been a while since I have had the pleasure of discussing Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) and its business issues. That changes today, as Moody's Investors Service downgraded Starbucks' $550 million senior unsecured notes to 'Baa3' from Baa2.'
The move takes into account what the ratings house sees as challenges lying ahead for the coffee company. In addition, Moody's cut Starbucks' short-term commercial paper rating.
An analyst with Moody's stated that the "downgrade reflects Starbucks challenge of refocusing the business without significantly damaging its brand, as well as weaker than anticipated operating performance" over the intermediate term. The biggest problem facing Starbucks is seen as weakness in consumer spending and increased competitive pressures.
Continue reading Moody's lowers Starbucks' rating
Posted Dec 5th 2008 1:04PM by Elizabeth Harrow (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Commodities
Energy stocks are getting hammered today, thanks in no small part to renewed demand concerns following the Labor Department's gruesome nonfarm payrolls report. Natural-gas concern Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) is blazing the path lower, with the shares hitting a new 5-year low of $9.86 earlier today.
In fact, CHK has been reeling since late November, when the commodity firm filed a shelf registration to issue $2 billion worth of shares in a bid to raise cash. The move sparked anxiety among investors about share dilution, and it also raised questions about Chesapeake's liquidity position. In response to the news, brokerage firm Calyon Securities on Wednesday slashed the stock's rating from Buy to Underperform, and cut its price target from $41 to $15.
Other analysts are concerned, too; Phil Weiss of Argus Research told Reuters today that "the stock could easily go to $2 a share on fear and panic." Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon asserted yesterday that his company is "in excellent position to weather the current difficult economic situation in the U.S.," but it remains to be seen whether this comment will be sufficient to soothe an increasingly emotional market.
Plus, CHK looks highly vulnerable to more downgrades in the near future. Zacks reports a staggering 16 Strong Buy ratings from analysts, along with one Buy, six Holds, and absolutely no Sells. Any further negative notes from brokerage firms could potentially smack the shares deeper into single-digit territory.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Nov 11th 2008 11:31AM by Elizabeth Harrow (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, General Motors (GM), Level 3 Communications (LVLT), Stocks to Sell
The shares of Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) are sinking deeper into penny-stock territory this morning following a damaging price-target cut from analysts at Citigroup. The brokerage firm slashed its price target on LVLT from $2.00 to 50 cents, and reiterated its Sell rating on the stock.
After closing Monday at 94 cents, LVLT is slipping ever closer this morning to that hypothetical "support at zero." In fact, following yesterday's all-out bearish note on General Motors (NYSE: GM), one has to wonder if Deutsche Bank will soon be slapping another of its famous goose-egg targets on Level 3. The stock has closed seven out of the past 13 sessions south of the $1 level, and its descending 10-day and 20-day moving averages have provided stubborn resistance in recent months.
In fact, while many analysts have already denounced LVLT, there's still room for potential downgrades or price-target cuts. Zacks reports two Buy or better ratings from brokerage firms, and these bulls may soon be shamed into lowering their opinions (if so, they would join six analysts who consider the stock a Hold, and six who deem it a Sell or Strong Sell).
Meanwhile, Thomson Financial pegs the average 12-month price target at $1.68, a premium of 87% to the equity's closing price on Monday. While more negative notes could drag the shares lower, there is a bright side -- from their current level, the shares could only lose about 85 cents.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Nov 5th 2008 11:15AM by Elizabeth Harrow (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Cisco Systems (CSCO), Intel (INTC), EMC Corp (EMC)
Shares of VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) are headed lower today following a downgrade from Merrill Lynch. The brokerage firm cut its rating on the equity from Buy to Neutral due to valuation concerns; VMW has added more than 60% since its October 21 earnings report. Merrill maintains a $31 price target on VMware, which represents a premium of just 1.4% to the stock's closing price on Tuesday.
It's shaping up to be a rough week for VMW. Yesterday, the tech stock sat out a broad-based rally in the equities market, and slumped to a daily loss of nearly 4% as word hit the Street that Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) chopped its VMware stake in half. Specifically, Intel unloaded about 4.75 million of the 9.5 million VMW shares it purchased in July 2007. According to a regulatory filing, half a million shares each were sold to Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) -- the latter of which already owns a majority stake in VMW.
With VMW shedding nearly 6% out of the gate this morning, it seems likely that the shares will add on to their year-to-date slump of more than 64%. The stock continues to find resistance from its 10-week and 20-week moving averages, and a reversal of optimism among option traders could accelerate the equity's decline. During the past 10 days, investors on the International Securities Exchange have bought to open nearly two times more calls than puts on VMW.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Oct 29th 2008 12:45PM by Elizabeth Harrow (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Coca-Cola (KO), Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE)
Blue-chip soda titan Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) slipped into the red this morning after Standard & Poor's last night revised the company's outlook to "negative." The ratings change also affects the Dow component's two main bottling units, Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) and Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling (NYSE: CCH). Analyst Jean Stout noted, "Weak economic conditions in select markets and volatile commodity costs have pressured the Coke system's operating performance."
Currently, Coca-Cola's S&P rating is "A+," the fifth-highest investment-grade notch. The downwardly revised outlook indicates that the rating is in danger of being cut over the next one to two years. In response to S&P's "negative" label, CCE postponed pricing a previously announced, $1 billion bond issue.
Stout added that "reduced share repurchases at Coke could restore some financial flexibility to the Coke system," but warned, "weakening macroeconomic conditions, as well as further acquisitions at Coke, CCE, or CCHB will likely further weaken Coke system credit measures."
Continue reading Coca-Cola's outlook slashed at Standard & Poor's
Posted Sep 19th 2008 12:58PM by Elizabeth Harrow (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, MBIA Inc (MBI)
Thanks to a downgrade warning from Moody's, bond insurers Ambac Financial Group (NYSE: ABK) and MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) are sitting out today's massive rally in financial stocks. Late Thursday, Moody's announced that it may downgrade the duo's ratings by more than one notch due to rising losses from subprime mortgage debt. So far today, the news has prompted a 7% drop in MBIA shares, and a slump of nearly 8% for Ambac.
In a statement, Moody's said, "Because both Ambac and MBIA are meaningfully exposed to the risk of U.S. subprime mortgages and other residential mortgage products, the revised assumptions are expected to have a significant impact on the firms' capital positions and multi-notch downgrades are possible." Specifically, the "A2" insurance financial strength rating of MBIA's insurance unit is under review, as is the "Aa3" insurance financial strength rating for Ambac.
Neither bond insurer seems particularly pleased by Moody's decision. Jay Brown, chairman and CEO of MBIA, said that the review reflects "inherent flaws" in the ratings company's logic, and added that his company has a capital cushion of more than $3 billion. Ambac's chairman and chief executive, Michael Callen, noted his "surprise and disappointment" at the news, and added that "Moody's ratings actions continue to cause confusion, uncertainty and the risk of material economic damange if their assumptions ultimately prove to be too onerous."
Despite today's plunge, MBI and ABK remain poised atop support from their respective 10-week moving averages. Both bond insurers have endured massive price plunges amid subprime-related fallout, but they've recently rebounded. Ambac now boasts a 60-day relative-strength reading of 381% versus the S&P 500 Index, while MBIA's is 312%.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.
Posted Jul 22nd 2008 4:04PM by Brent Archer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Options, Technical Analysis, salesforce.com inc (CRM)
Salesforce.com (NYSE:
CRM) shares are falling today after
an analyst at Citigroup downgraded the stock to "Hold" from "Buy" based on the stock's valuation. Investors are shrugging off
Thomas Weisel's "Buy" initiation in favor of the Citi downgrade. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on CRM.
After hitting a one-year low of $37.24 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $75.21 in June. This morning, CRM opened at $67.15. So far today the stock has hit a low of $64.70 and a high of $67.23. As of 1:05, CRM is trading at $65.90, down $3.48 (-5.0%). The chart for CRM looks bearish but improving slightly, while
S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $80 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in four weeks as long as CRM is below $80 at August expiration. CRM would have to rise by more than 21% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
Continue reading Trade idea for Salesforce.com downgrade
Posted Jul 14th 2008 12:05PM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, , Starwood Hotels Worldwide (HOT)
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wachovia, Deutsche Bank and Pearson plc were today's noteworthy downgrades:
- UBS believes it is increasingly likely that Wachovia Bank (NYSE: WB) will need to raise capital. The firm said the company may need to raise $5B in equity and cuts its dividend to 1c, which will save $3B annually. UBS cut shares to Neutral from Buy and lowered its 2008 EPS estimate to ($1.98).
- Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) to Underweight from Equal Weight as they believe DB may have to increase its tier 1 ratio, which could lead to dividend cuts or asset sales.
- Deutsche Bank downgraded Pearson (NYSE: PSO) to Sell from Hold as they believe the weak funding environment for Education will slow earnings growth.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
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