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Posts with tag dreamworks animation

Sony's Hancock wins holiday race

Well, I was wrong about Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Hancock. Sure, I knew it was going to be the number-one movie over the Fourth of July holiday period, but come on, who didn't know that? As of this writing, Boxofficemojo estimates that the Will Smith picture took in $66 million over the three-day timeframe. However, Hancock had opened earlier in the week, and I thought that, by the time all was said and done, the film's cumulative gross by now would have been well over $100 million. Well, the cume now stands at around $107 million. I was thinking more along the lines of $125 million and above for a total tally by this point. Hancock came in a little weaker than expected, considering what seemed to be a very awesome cinematic experience as communicated by the marketing campaign.

Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E came in second over the weekend with around $33 million. The Pixar cartoon now has about $128 million to its credit. Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, was third with over $20 million. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Get Smart and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda were fourth and fifth, respectively. Here's an interesting note on Get Smart. Even after the holiday weekend, and after having been out in the marketplace for a few weekends, it still has yet to reach a total gross of $100 million. As of now, it has a little over $98 million in the bank. That number may change a bit when final figures are in, but in this day and age, when a summer movie with such star power (it stars Steve Carell) doesn't reach $100 million by the second weekend or sooner, it can't be considered super blockbuster material.

Well, it wasn't a terribly exciting box-office weekend. Frankly, I thought there would be more fireworks for the Fourth from these films. And as for all the stocks mentioned here, the bear market will probably keep them weak. The most direct play on the movie business is obviously DreamWorks Animation, and I would wait for that one to come in more before thinking about buying.

Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.

Disney's "Wall-E" beats my expectations

I didn't think Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E movie would do as well as it did over the weekend. I thought $60 million was too much to hope for (see my previous piece on the subject). I was wrong. According to Boxofficemojo, the Pixar picture pulled in more than $62 million at domestic theaters and came out on top.

Assuming the film continues to do well in upcoming weekends, Wall-E should provide a nice counterbalance to the relative disappointment of Disney's Prince Caspian project that was released in May. While Wall-E won't move Disney's stock all by itself, the movie and its characters should help drive the studio segment in future quarters, as well as provide some opportunities for promotions and initiatives in other parts of the company, such as the theme parks.

Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, debuted in second place with a haul of more than $50 million. The movie, starring Angelina Jolie, had some snazzy, Matrix-like commercials powering its appeal. I can see why the numbers were big on this one. Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and Get Smart didn't stand a chance against Wanted. It dropped two spots to third place with a tally of $20 million. And, no, I still don't find Steve Carell funny.

Continue reading Disney's "Wall-E" beats my expectations

Will Disney score this weekend with 'Wall-E'?

Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) has an interesting weekend coming up. The new Pixar film, Wall-E, opened today. While everyone expects it to be a hit, no one knows yet how big a hit it will ultimately be.

Pixar, of course, is a major brand in computer-generated cartoons. Its major competition is DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA). The latter's most recent hit, Kung Fu Panda, opened earlier this summer box-office season with a $60.2 million first-weekend take, according to Boxofficemojo. Last year, Ratatouille debuted with a first-weekend take of $47 million. In my mind, for Wall-E to please shareholders and show Disney that its Pixar brand is a reliable money machine, the animated feature needs to do at least $60 million. It can't do anywhere near the Ratatouille flick since that was an example of weak opening performance, in my opinion.

I read a great review on Wall-E at the Hollywood Reporter. The author heaps praises on the film and says that Pixar's streak of success is intact. That's pretty pleasing. Yet, the review also worries me to some extent (I'm a Disney shareholder). The author says that there isn't a lot of dialogue in the picture (I guess the robot characters don't speak) and that it might be such a smart project that some moviegoers might not fully appreciate it. In this competitive timeframe, that doesn't make me feel good. I'd rather the film be simple blockbuster material for the popcorn crowd. I don't want the young kids in the audience to feel their attention spans being strained in the least. I'm not looking for art in this case. I just want my company to make as much money as possible.

Continue reading Will Disney score this weekend with 'Wall-E'?

Although Steve Carell isn't funny, 'Get Smart' was number one

I didn't think Get Smart was going to come in at number one, but that's exactly what happened, according to Boxofficemojo. The film, distributed by Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), took in an estimated $39 million at domestic theaters. The film, quite frankly, looks horrible, and I don't get the fascination people have with Steve Carell's supposed "comedic talents." I don't really find him funny. Doesn't matter, though, because moviegoers have crowned Carell king of the box-office weekend whether I like it or not.

I'm actually more concerned with the race for second place between Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda. Both are estimated as of this writing to have booked a little more than $21 million in ticket sales. I'm concerned about this because I own shares of Marvel, and I'm disappointed in the movie's box-office performance. As of now, the new Hulk has about $96 million in terms of total gross. The fact that it hasn't scored over $100 million by now, coupled with it experiencing a 60% drop for this weekend compared to its debut weekend, leaves me less than satisfied.

Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) The Love Guru bombed. Looks like you can't always count on stars to deliver the important opening-weekend audience. Are people getting sick of Mike Myers? (Jonathan Berr wondered the same thing.) He was only able to conjure up about $14 million for Viacom shareholders, bringing his film to a fourth-place debut. That's embarrassing for Myers, but unlike Steve Carell, he is genuinely funny (although maybe not so much in this particular film, it seems). News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) M. Night Shyamalan movie The Happening grossed around $10 million and came in fifth.

Continue reading Although Steve Carell isn't funny, 'Get Smart' was number one

Marvel's 'Hulk' came in at number one, but was it a box-office bomb?

Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) movie The Incredible Hulk was incredibly disappointing (to me at least). No, I'm not talking about the quality of the movie. I didn't actually see it. But Boxofficemojo is reporting that it has grossed an estimated $54.5 million at domestic theaters over the weekend. While that was good enough for first place, it wasn't good enough for shareholders. The movie bombed, plain and simple.

Why am I being so hard on a number-one movie? It's not so difficult to understand. The awful Hulk movie that was released back in 2003 grossed $62.1 million in its opening weekend. There's no way to spin this. We've had five years of inflation between that terrible flick and this new iteration. Simply put, it should have grossed at least $65/$70 million, especially on the heels of Iron Man. I'm a shareholder of Marvel, and I don't like the fact that the success of Marvel's first movie of the summer didn't synergize a little better with the angry green guy.

Focusing on the positive, Marvel was able to beat DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and its Kung Fu Panda project. The cartoon took in about $34 million and came in second. M. Night Shyamalan's The Happening, distributed by News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), did okay by coming in third with a gross of around $30 million. Some analysts thought that the horror flick would do a little bit less than that number. Personally, I thought it should have come in second place considering Shyamalan's name, but I guess people aren't as excited as they used to be about his exercises in cinematic twists (the fact that it was rated R also inhibited its blockbuster potential). Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Adam Sandler comedy You Don't Mess with the Zohan did in fact get messed with yet again, dropping two spots to fourth place, grossing about $16 million. I've heard bad reviews on this one. Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull were daring enough for fifth place. Everyone's favorite archaeologist has now breached the $275 million level. Great to see a favorite character of mine from the past doing so well.

Continue reading Marvel's 'Hulk' came in at number one, but was it a box-office bomb?

Should Steven Spielberg go public?

Steven Spielberg wants to reboot the DreamWorks brand, according to this article. He's not happy being at Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Paramount and not having full ownership of his films. What he wants to do now is see if he can summon $1 billion in financing to catalyze this new phase in his life.

Of course, the phrase "see if he can" is probably not the most accurate one to use when talking about Spielberg. When it comes to Hollywood, his word is scripture, and if he asks for financing, he'll have more takers than he can handle. After raising his billion bucks, Spielberg needs to decide which studio will be a perfect home for his new celluloid ambitions. Although the article states that there is a possibility he can land anywhere, to me, there's no ambiguity whatsoever.

Spielberg will end up at General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal (if I could be as sure about the price of oil as I am about Spielberg and Universal, I'd be a rich, rich man). He and his Amblin shingle have had a long relationship with Universal, and simply put, that's where he wants to be. It's funny to consider Disney (NYSE: DIS) and News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) as potential new homes for DreamWorks. Disney definitely wouldn't want him since the Mouse is being very conservative in terms of film making, and although News Corp. would love to overpay for him (I think News Corp. enjoys overpaying for things at times), I just don't see Spielberg going to Fox.

Continue reading Should Steven Spielberg go public?

The Zohan is no match for the Panda

The weekend domestic box-office results weren't too shocking. I pretty much knew that DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda would kick its way to the top (I wonder how many writers will be using that phrase when covering the movie this week). But when I saw that Boxofficemojo estimated a $60 million gross for the cartoon, I actually was disappointed. These days, a $60 million haul in the summertime doesn't seem impressive. I thought Panda might have been worth a little more. But, after checking some of the historical openings for other DreamWorks pictures, I realized that Panda did all right. It actually was one of the bigger debuts for the studio.

Even though the cartoon seemed a lock for first place, I thought Sony's (NYSE: SNE) You Don't Mess with the Zohan project would be a close second. At a $40 million estimated gross, it wasn't. I don't know if you can mess with Zohan or not, but you apparently can mess with Adam Sandler and best his star power. Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is still going strong in third place. It has crossed the $250 million level, and it is headed for $300 million. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Sex and the City, however, has lost a great deal of thunder, dropping from first to fourth place in its second weekend at the multiplexes. It is just shy of the $100 million mark. Is Sex nothing more than an opening-weekend phenomenon? It seems that way, but we'll have to see how steep the drops are in subsequent weekends.

The Strangers, from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures, dropped from third to fifth place in its second weekend, a rather predictable event for a horror movie. At a $37 million total gross so far, The Strangers won't go down as a huge triumph, but you've got to love the profit potential for this low-budget flick that succeeded in counterprogramming its way to summertime glory. Universal obviously thought the film's concept possessed a chance to score a $100 million total haul since it placed the movie against the big guns of this busy period, but that's okay, the try was worth it in this case.

Continue reading The Zohan is no match for the Panda

IMAX misses by a wide margin -- is there a bullish argument somewhere?

IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) really missed Wall Street's expectations. In its latest earnings release, issued on Monday, the company said that its net loss per share doubled to $0.25 for the first quarter compared to the 2007 quarter when the net loss was $0.12 per share. Revenues were $23.5 million, a 12% decline.

While that performance is bad enough in itself, it was also below expectations with the bottom line missing by $0.11. Yikes! Revenues were likewise a disappointment. Even with all the snazzy content from studios such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), Disney (NYSE: DIS) and DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA), IMAX is having a tough time getting its stock out of the single digits. Management is hoping that a stronger slate for the rest of the year will have a positive impact.

Maybe it will, maybe it won't. IMAX is a stock I have no interest in buying. The company sports a negative book value at the moment, and the stock's past performance has been pretty terrible. I have to concede, however, that on a shorter-term period, the stock has been strong -- in fact, it is not too far from a 52-week high.

As one can imagine, many are speculating that IMAX has a great future ahead of it as the company transitions to digital platforms (this article at USATODAY.com provides an excellent summary of the bull argument, as well as issues IMAX has had with financing). Also, I'm sure many are speculating about a potential sale of the company at some point.

Hey, I'm not going to necessarily rain on the long-term thesis for IMAX, but I have to be honest and say that I'd have to see a breakout from here and some better numbers next quarter to even think about starting a position.

Disclosure: I own shares in Disney; positions can change at any time.

THQ would like to forget its last fiscal year

THQ's (NASDAQ: THQI) Q4 results were not good at all. Revenues were up over 8% to $187 million, but the software publisher lost an adjusted $0.37 per diluted share from continuing operations. Last year at this time, THQ generated positive adjusted net income of $0.13 per diluted share from continuing operations. The full fiscal year was no better -- revenues were basically flat at $1 billion. The company lost an adjusted $0.23 per diluted share from continuing operations during the year compared to an adjusted profit of $1.20 per diluted share from continuing operations in 2007.

This publisher is no Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) or Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) right now. Its slate is performing poorly, and the company's stock is likewise in the dumps. But what about the future? A few years back, THQ wasn't a bad investment decision. I have a feeling that THQ will rebound as the current console cycle continues its forward path, especially when further price cuts in hardware make their way to market.

THQ, however, needs to get its slate back on track, and to really go after the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 players. It seems to be doing OK with the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platform in terms of revenue mix. Perhaps the deal struck with DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) for a video game based on the animation company's 2010 feature Master Mind will help.

Nevertheless, there is nothing exciting in the earnings release, nothing that makes me think that THQ is out of the dark woods yet. Again, though, I would expect the publisher's stock to rebound in the future. Question is, how patient will investors be?

Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.

Viacom's Q1 earnings were solid -- how does the stock look?

Viacom (NYSE: VIA) issued its Q1 earnings results on Friday. The conglomerate seems to be doing all right with its strategy of leveraging content to drive growth. Revenues were up 15%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share jumped 29% to $0.44. But it can be seen that there's a dichotomy going on if you look into the performance of the two main operating segments: media networks saw its operating income rock up 15% while filmed entertainment tallied up an operating loss for the quarter. Even though that loss was narrowed by over 40%, I always get disappointed when I see a studio in the red -- it reminds me that the movie business is a risky, oftentimes low-return one.

But, should you be down on Viacom's movie business right now? Maybe not, since Paramount is currently distributing Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man -- see Sheldon Liber's recent article about the film. That should hopefully improve things going forward, as might Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Viacom also will be distributing Kung Fu Panda for DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA). Sumner Redstone is certainly counting on these projects to be huge. And speaking of huge, the company's Rock Band continues to fuel the media networks segment -- it's sold by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), and it is apparently holding its own against Activision's (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero. The synergies between MTV and the music system are obviously pushing this one. Maybe the studio should get in on the video-game action by greenlighting a movie based on Rock Band -- maybe Jack Black could star in it!

Overall, I think Viacom is performing as it should, and I hope the movie division can bring in some profits during the coming months (I think it will). As for the stock, I'd ideally like to see it a bit lower before I'd consider buying it.

Disclosure: I own shares of Activision and Marvel; positions can change at any time.

DreamWorks Animation beats expectations, looks forward to 'Kung Fu Panda'

DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) reported Q1 earnings Tuesday after the market close, and I have a funny feeling that its shareholders were pretty pleased. Revenues were like a fairy tale (that's a Shrek reference), increasing 67% to $156.6 million. Earnings per share kicked it like a black-belt martial artist (that's a Kung Fu Panda reference), increasing 87% to 28 cents per share on a reported basis; on an adjusted basis, the growth was more like 73%.

Wow; talk about growth rates! Even on an adjusted basis, you've got to like the bottom-line appreciation. And it should be noted that DreamWorks beat the street by three pennies according to Briefing.com. Want more good news? Operational cash flow soared like a bee in flight (that's a Bee Movie reference), expanding 22% to $107.7 million.

The DreamWorks story is very much driven by the company's film slate, as opposed to conglomerate competitors such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Disney (NYSE: DIS), and News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), which have a lot more in terms of moving parts. Shrek the Third, as well as library titles, helped drive the quarter. Coming up is Kung Fu Panda and a sequel to Madagascar. Those wishing to buy the stock ahead of the company's upcoming titles should look for pullbacks. I really like DreamWorks Animation's prospects, but it bothers me that I haven't heard too much buzz surrounding the Panda project. I'm sure it's coming, though, but I'm also sure that I would really love the stock a lot more if it were closer to the 52-week low. But don't get me wrong, I'm not a growling bear on the company. I think the Q1 earnings and cash flow performance are top notch. Tthe company is building out an enviable library of product, and I think traders and long-term investors alike will get something out of DreamWorks Animation's stock.

Disclosure: I own shares in Disney; positions can change at any time.

Disney's future animated projects -- will they succeed under Lasseter?

Look out, DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) -- your arch enemy, Disney (NYSE: DIS), wants to be king of animation at the cinema over the next few years. Actually, I suppose other companies who produce animation, such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA), should watch out as well.

According to a Disney press release, ten cartoons will be released through 2012. The lineup sounds pretty impressive. We'll be seeing the third Toy Story movie in the summer of 2010, and two years later, audiences will be revving up for a Cars sequel. During the holiday season of 2011, a Pixar fairy tale called "The Bear and the Bow" will be weaving its magic (hopefully) in the multiplexes, which is interesting, because during the summer of that same year, Pixar will be releasing something called "newt", so fans will get two Pixar properties three years from now. Other animated projects include Bolt, which will use the voice talents of John Travolta and Miley Cyrus, and The Princess and the Frog.

Whew, there was a lot of cool intellectual properties in that press release, and as a Disney shareholder, I am excited at the prospects. But this isn't just about a bunch of cartoons, my friends -- not at all. This is a huge test for Bob Iger. Was he correct in spending billions to acquire Pixar and its talent trust, specifically John Lasseter? Mr. Lasseter, the chief creative officer for both Walt Disney Animation and Pixar Animation Studios, has a lot of pressure weighing down upon his shoulders. Not sure if he would actually admit that, but he does. He's the man who's supposed to see Disney's animation assets into the future, to bring Disney's animation brand back to prominence. Many people thought that Disney was losing its way in terms of traditional animation; to add insult to injury, some were questioning whether Pixar, when it wasn't part of Disney proper, was what Disney used to be -- innovative in its creativity, obsessed with quality, and driven to provide a moving experience for animation fans whenever they sat before the silver screen.

So, we'll see whether those billions invested in the Pixar acquisition truly will reap stellar returns on invested capital. It will be the performance of the non-Pixar films that will tell the tale.

Disclosure: I own shares of Disney; positions can change at any time.

DreamWorks CEO is really excited about 3-D

So here's the deal -- home theater systems are so popular these days that some perceive them as a threat to the movie business. But DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg thinks digital 3-D is going to bring people back into theaters in a big way, judging by comments he made in Las Vegas at ShoWest. Katzenberg believes that current 3-D technologies are as revolutionary a technology as color television was when it first came onto the scene. He could be right.

Studios like Disney (NYSE: DIS), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), Sony (NYSE: SNE) and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal are certainly hoping he's right. As I mentioned recently, the actual number of tickets sold in theaters last year was pretty flat. So they want to do everything they can to get people excited about leaving their homes and justifying spending a ton of money on tickets and concession items (heck, in my local mall multiplex, a bottle of Dasani water sets me back well over three bucks!).

I don't think Katzenberg is overstating the issue, but it will take a lot of investment and effort by movie studios to ensure that the public really gets the value of the 3-D experience; some effective marketing campaigns will be in order. I should point out that I haven't seen a 3-D movie since the bygone days of my youth -- yes, I was there for Jaws 3-D and the great Friday the 13th Part III in 3-D, the latter of which was the first Friday to feature Jason con hockey mask -- and, to be honest, I don't relish going to one now. I'm not crazy about wearing glasses for my moviegoing experience. Nevertheless, I probably am unique, and I think once theaters are converted to a critical-mass point for digital 3-D, the movie industry will be better for it. And DreamWorks Animation will certainly attract a bigger audience to its cartoons when 3-D becomes ubiquitous.

Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns shares of Disney and General Electric; positions can change at any time.

From bees to ogres: A look at DreamWorks Animation's earnings

DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) is one of those fun stocks to own. Who wouldn't be happy pinning their portfolio's fortunes to Shrek and a bee character based on Jerry Seinfeld? Yep, this is a play on Hollywood animation; the question is, how did DreamWorks do for its fourth quarter and fiscal year?

DreamWorks Animation can be very competitive with Disney (NYSE: DIS) and its Pixar brand when it comes to computer cartoons. For that matter, it is competitive with others like Sony (NYSE: SNE), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA) -- they've all had computer cartoons in the marketplace. This latest earnings report proves it. Revenues for Q4 increased 42% to $290 million, and earnings came in at $0.98 per diluted share -- this compares to a loss of $0.20 per diluted share in the year-ago period. Revenues for the full year truly were animated -- they rose 94% to $767 million. Earnings for 2007 equaled $2.17 per diluted share. Talk about blowing away the previous year's stat -- 2006 earnings per stub came in at a mere $0.15.

Continue reading From bees to ogres: A look at DreamWorks Animation's earnings

Indiana Jones could deliver big profits for Viacom (VIA)

Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Paramount studios had a pretty kickin' year at the multiplex in 2007. According to Boxofficemojo.com, Paramount came out on top in terms of market share at 15.5%. It distributed some great hits -- Transformers, the DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) films Shrek the Third and Bee Movie, Will Ferrel's Blades of Glory comedy, and Eddie Murphy's Norbit. Viacom's movie business seems to be doing better. According to the latest 10Q for the reporting period ending September 30, 2007, operating income for the filmed-entertainment segment was $71.7 million versus a loss of nearly $8 million in the previous year's comparable quarter (the nine-month period still showed a loss). So, Paramount needs to keep the momentum going this year. How will it top the power of last summer's blockbuster Transformers? With a little swashbuckling help from Indiana Jones, of course!

To get things started, the media company sent out a press release alerting fans of fast-paced adventure that the first teaser trailer for Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull will be released on February 14 during ABC's Good Morning America program and in theaters across the globe. For those of us who've been waiting with a will of patience that was oftentimes as excruciating and as taxing as sitting through yet another news item about Britney Spears' latest mental breakdown, this is one heck of a Valentine, although I do hate teaser trailers (they are, after all, such a tease!).

Will the new Indy flick be a big hit this summer? I think it will be, although it isn't an absolute given, since a lot of the younger demos probably find the Raiders aesthetic a bit antiquated these days; plus, there will be stiff competition from Disney's (NYSE: DIS) new Pixar cartoon Wall-E, Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight, and Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Incredible Hulk project. Still, we're talking about George Lucas and Steven Spielberg here, and they still retain a lot of cultural pull with all demographics. Viacom and Paramount will probably be happy with the results from Crystal Skull come the summer , although I think it's safe to assume that Lucas and Spielberg will be taking a large portion of the grosses. Nevertheless, Viacom is in on the action, and I'm sure it wouldn't want it any other way.

Disclosure: I own shares in Disney and Marvel.

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