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Oil jumps to six month high

Record Oil PricesOil continued its charge today and traded up 3.4% to close the week out at $58.63 and creates a situation where we could very likely be looking at $60 oil again by the end of next week. The last time oil was trading this high was all the way back on November 11.

On Monday we looked at oil, and noted that a big reason for oil's recent jump is increasing optimism towards the overall economy, and that is still the case. The Labor Department reported a drop of 539,000 non-farm payrolls in April, lower than the anticipated loss of 610,000 jobs.

Continue reading Oil jumps to six month high

Doomsday Scenario: 80% home default spike in CA, Freddie Mac CFO suicide

Back to the trenchant trenches. More bad housing news came out of California. The loan default rate spiked 80% in the first quarter, according to DataQuick. This is a precursor to a HUGE spike in foreclosures (defaults are the first step down this road) and a strong indicator that the real estate market in California still has another leg down. Even wealthy spots like Santa Clara and Contra Costa counties are showing mid-double digit increases in default notifications.

Continue reading Doomsday Scenario: 80% home default spike in CA, Freddie Mac CFO suicide

Americans driving less: Will we stay in 'shock' state?

Just a few weeks ago we were wondering whether falling gas prices meant that Americans would be driving more. The data says: no. (Although the data is, admittedly, nearly two months delayed.) Both gasoline consumption and vehicles miles travelled have fallen every month over the past several months; the miles travelled figure is down 11 months in a row and 4.4% in September.

In the Wall Street Journal, Joseph B. White points out how the cycle is so far following that of the late 1970s and early 80s; gas gets expensive, Americans embrace high-mileage vehicles, less driving, and start thinking about alternative energy sources; demand falls and prices go back down; and then Americans return to their old ways. And complicating this situation is that gas tax revenue goes down when gas consumption goes down; so infrastructure funds dry up. Paradoxically, transportation officials are stuck in the not-so-virtuous cycle: if they encourage behavior that's good for the planet, they'll reduce their income and roads will suffer.

White asks, will we be headed straight back to "trance" state? Will automakers, having embraced development of electric-powered vehicles and other green options, give up in the face of the reality that it's just as cheap to drive a guzzler? Will Americans remember how much they loved their Sunday afternoon drives in the Excursion? Either way, the fallout is complicated.

I really believe that Americans will stay in the shock state. Many of my friends have made significant investment in the low-car lifestyle, buying family bikes and developing new routines around energy conservation. This time, it's not really about the money; I started my car-free lifestyle before prices started rising and the consensus seems to be that we're doing it for the health of the planet and our own health; those values are not to be unpacked for short-term gain. I believe in (some of) the American people. Now our government will have the hard choice of whether to raise gas taxes or find another way to fund the infrastructure shortfall.

As gasoline heads for $4, consumers cut back

Surveys show that gasoline prices are starting to weigh on consumers' psyches, as well as their budgets, but will the recent price surge propel permanent transportation changes in the nation?

Economist Glen Langan thinks it will, with the pivotal level being prices well over $3 per gallon gasoline. Initially, economists thought the $3 per gallon threshold would compel consumers to cut back consumption, Langan said. This didn't occur, despite gasoline's six to nine month long plateau over $3. A few months and 50-60 cents later, consumers have cut back, and Langan says the permanence of gasoline's stratospheric level is the reason.

Gasoline price psychology

"The cutback is a combination of the old and the new price, but it's mostly a reaction to the old $3 gasoline. Consumers would have cut back then, but they didn't because they concluded that it was temporary, a summer price," Langan said. "But after prices didn't drop and continued to increase early this year, well before the new summer driving season, consumers have concluded that the $3 or higher price for gasoline is here to stay, so they're cutting back accordingly. From a budget standpoint, they're making the right choice."

Continue reading As gasoline heads for $4, consumers cut back

They want me to use less gasoline? NO! I don't have to.

cryingSo they want me and all my friends to use less gasoline huh? They must tell me why we should. Do they think our driving less is going to save the planet? They should think again.

I have an alternate scenario for them, but it involves economic development and intelligent use of resources. Do I have your attention yet? If so, just read a little farther.

First, it's common knowledge that we can fuel internal combustion engines with fuels derived from sources other than petroleum. We certainly don't have to burn the food supply to do it either. Ethanol and methane for use in powering electrical generation and transportation can be created from wood scrap, trash, brush, algae and sewage. Wind, water, sun, they're all right at hand. I don't need them to give me those stories about "not economically feasible." Make it economically feasible you slackers or just admit that you're open-mouthed quacks, naysayers and charlatans lacking ingenuity and drive.

And just to carry this rant a little further, let me tell you about just a couple petroleum-based products which we could manufacture using base materials other than oil. This might be tough though, there's only about 6,000 of them. You see, only about one half of every 42 gallon barrel of oil goes into gasoline production. The rest is used for manufacturing purposes. Did the anti-gasoline fascists neglect to tell you that?

Continue reading They want me to use less gasoline? NO! I don't have to.

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DJIA+124.9310,443.09
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S&P 500+14.281,105.66

Last updated: November 23, 2009: 01:39 PM

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