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Analyst downgrades: ATI, CRS, HAYN, MOT and Machinery stocks

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Allegheny Tech, Carpenter Tech, Haynes, Motorola and Machinery stocks were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JP Morgan downgraded Allegheny Tech (NYSE:ATI), Carpenter Tech (NYSE:CRS) and Haynes (NASDAQ:HAYN) to Neutral from Overweight based on the decline in nickel prices and its impact on nickel-based metals demand on valuation, as they find the risk/reward less attractive following the recent rally and increased raw material costs.
  • Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Motorola (NYSE:MOT) to Underperform from Perform after channel checks indicated the company could miss Q2 handset guidance and continued market share losses.
  • UBS said the risk/reward profile for owning Machinery stocks given macro challenges and valuations. The firm downgraded Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Kennametal (NYSE:KMT) to Sell from Neutral and United Rentals (NYSE:URI) and RSC Holdings (NYSE:RRR) to Neutral from Buy. Additionally, shares of Paccar (NASDAQ:PCAR) were cut to Sell from Neutral and Navistar (OTC:NAVZ) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy due to weak U.S. truck demand.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Best Buy challenges FCC on analog TV labeling requirement

Consumer electronics retailer Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) didn't really like the FCC's idea that it label all analog TV sets with a warning label -- something I posted on a month ago. In fact, the retailer is now challenging the FCC's authority to require retailers to slap those "Warning: Analog TV" stickers on those retail shelf boxes.

The FCC seems to believe it will be Y2K all over again when the analog television frequencies are vacated next February for all those who receive TV signals via antenna. Standard issue for the federal government, I suppose. Best Buy not only doesn't want to have even more labels and customer communication littering up its stores, but it argues that the fines levied by the FCC for the non-use of these stickers are invalid as well.

Best Buy was fined $280,000 and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was fined $992,000 for failing to include these analog TV stickers on the appropriate products. Wal-Mart had not decided what its plans were yet, but my guess if that it will unite with Best Buy to present a huge challenge to the FCC's authority. Best Buy's biggest argument was that retailers are not commission licensees by the FCC --- so how can the FCC impose fines? There are quite a few more arguments being made by Best Buy that should hold up in a court of law easily if it gets to that.

One would think that the recent FCC auctions of the about-to-be-abandoned analog TV airwaves would give enough cash back to the FCC's coffers than stupid fines like this. Apparently not.

Option Update: DirecTV volatility low as shares near four year high

DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) closed at $27.02 Friday.

Deutsche Bank raised its price target on DTV to $36 and says: "we expect continued strong top-line growth, operating leverage, lower capex, and aggressive repurchases and a resolution of its control issues."

DTV over all option implied volatility of 32 is below its 26-week average of 37 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Earnings highlights: Anadarko, Disney, Coors, Unilever, Activision, Marvel and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Anadarko, Disney, Coors, Unilever, Activision, Marvel and others

DirecTV (DTV) reports surprising first-quarter earnings

Shares of digital television provider DirecTV Group Inc. (NASDAQ: DTV) have been rallying in early trading as its earnings numbers for the first quarter were better than analysts had forecast. The company also announced its board approved an increase in its stock buyback program, raising it to $3 billion.

The company said its first-quarter profit rose 10% to $371 million, helped by higher subscriber additions. DirecTV was able to slightly come in above analyst estimates, with 32 cents per share compared to the forecast 31 cents per share. Compared to its first period last year, earnings were up, as the digital television provider came with earnings of 27 cents a share last year.

The nation's largest satellite-TV company posted a respectable growth of 17% for its first-quarter revenue, which jumped to $4.59 billion compared with $3.91 billion a year ago. This was above analysts' predictions for quarterly revenue of $4.47 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

Continue reading DirecTV (DTV) reports surprising first-quarter earnings

Comcast's earnings and cash flow impress, but wait for a pullback in share price

Cable operator Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA), a competitor of DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) and DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH), issued its first-quarter earnings report on Thursday, and overall it was a satisfying set of data. Revenues grew 14% to $8.4 billion. Adjusted earnings per share increased 12% to $0.19 (on a reported basis, however, they did decline by 8%). One of my favorite things to look at is free cash flow -- Comcast scored here, as free cash jumped 59% to over $700 million.

I've never owned Comcast stock, and I'm on record as preferring content companies over distribution platforms. That being said, I do have to say that Comcast is a pretty good name in its industry, and that it seems to be doing quite well with its various offerings. Looking through the earnings release, I see that Comcast added close to half-a-million digital cable customers. The high-speed internet service and digital-phone service also seem to be performing (on an anecdotal level, it does feel like more and more people are taking up the triple-play suite that Comcast is constantly promoting). The programming segment, which includes channels such as E! and The Golf Channel, saw revenues increase 20% and it delivered a nice stream of cash flow. The company bought back almost 2% of its outstanding shares, and management plans to buy more under its repurchase initiative.

If you're looking to get in on the stock, I'd wait for a pullback after Thursday's 8% pop in share price. Like I say, I do like content companies, but Comcast might be an interesting long-term idea, since it will probably be the beneficiary of a desire on the part of media conglomerates such as Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA) to engage more digital distribution via video-on-demand and to, in fact, experiment with day-and-date release (which I talked about in a recent piece). If this paradigm ever hits a critical mass, then Comcast should do well with it.

Disclosure: I own shares in Disney; positions can change at any time.

Analyst downgrades: EGP, TTWO and CLMT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: EastGroup Properties, Take-Two and Calumet Specialty were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • After EastGroup (NYSE:EGP) reported slightly higher-than-expected Q1 FFO per share, Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy on valuation. However, the firm still believes that the company's business model and dividend fundamentals are well-positioned.
  • Citigroup downgraded Take-Two (NASDAQ:TTWO) to Hold from Buy citing balanced risk/reward as the firm does not expect an aggressive competing bid process.
  • Raymond James downgraded Calumet (NASDAQ:CLMT) to Underperform from Market Perform following the company's reduction in distribution to 45c unit from 63c.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Early analyst calls (LVLT) (XMSR)

Goldman Sachs believes that the Q2 forecast from Citrix Systems (NASDAQ:CTXS) to push the share price down according to the AP.

Citigroup downgraded XM Satellite (NASDAQ:XMSR) from "buy" to "hold" according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Merriman upgraded Level 3 (NASDAQ:LVLT) from "sell" to "neutral."

DIRECTV (NYSE:DTV) was downgraded to "market perform" at Bernstein according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial site also reports that Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO) was cut to "hold" from "buy at Citigroup

Douglas A. McIntyre

Can cable stocks get back in vogue?

The Wall Street Journal suggests that cable stocks, which have sold off sharply over the last three quarters, might now be a good investment. That is probably wrong. The paper says that "while cable stocks lately have bounced from bottoms hit earlier this year, they still are trading at 10-year lows along several key metrics."

But, cable has never had so much competition and that is likely to grow. Firms such as Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) are up against new fiber-to-the-home TV and broadband offerings from telecom companies, especially Verizon (NYSE:VZ). The phone firm's FiOS product is picking up customers and it has not been rolled out in most of the 18 million homes where Verizon has customers.

The phone companies have a special advantage. They can bundle cellular, broadband, TV, and landline service to individual customers and give them "one-stop shopping."

Cable is also up against new and improved products from satellite TV companies. Firms like DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) are adding a number of HD channels. Cable does not always have the bandwidth to put as many of these channels on its systems.

Cable stocks are down because competition is way up. Much of that has come recently and it is likely to get worse.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Analyst initiations: MO, AUO, GSI and SQNM

MOST NOTEWORTHY: AU Optronics, General Steel and Sequenom were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Jefferies initiated AU Optronics (NYSE: AUO) with a Buy rating and $25 target and believes LCD trends will be healthy in 2008 despite a soft economy.
  • General Steel (NYSE: GSI) shares were started at Merriman with a Buy rating, as the firm believes strong demand for steel in China should last for years and finds the valuation attractive at current levels.
  • Cantor believes Sequenom (NASDAQ: SQNM) is positioned to establish sustainable market leadership as a provider of genome analytical products and molecular diagnostics. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $12 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • UBS initiated Altria Group (NYSE: MO) with a Buy rating and $30 target.
  • Canaccord Adams assumed Drugstore.com (NASDAQ: DSCM) with a Buy rating and $3.50 target.
  • Goldman Sachs initiated DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV) with a Buy rating and $30 target.

DirecTV (DTV) goes 'on demand'

So far, big satellite TV company DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) has been able to offer hundreds of channels and high definition, but it has not had "on demand" options. Cable and fiber-based telecom TV products do have the service and that gives them an edge with consumers.

DirecTV has set out to remedy that problem. According to The Wall Street Journal, "The No. 1 satellite-TV provider by subscribers is testing its own version of an on-demand movies and television service that it plans to launch in the second quarter." The programming will be sent to consumers set-top boxes and be stored there for later selection. While the system is not ideal because disk space limits what the box can hold, it is better than no "on demand" at all. Movies not in storage can be streamed from DirecTV over the internet to the box.

The news is certainly not good for telecom and cable companies. The market for "on demand" is getting very crowded. Cable "owned" the home TV system until companies, especially Verizon (NYSE: VZ) built fiber systems to carry programming into the home. That made two sets of competitors trying to get the consumer to use their products. Now there will be a third.

Three well-funded competitors trying to get market share usually leads to a price war. Getting "on demand" TV services is probably about to get much cheaper.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Circuit City launches year-long digital TV education campaign

Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC), which continues to struggle with sales, profit and just about every other meaningful metric, at least is clinging to life with some public relations efforts. The second largest consumer electronics chain in the U.S. has noted many times in the past that the falling prices of flat-panel televisions contributed in large part to its negative fortunes.

Now, though, the retailer wants to become the 'answer center' for all consumer questions related to next February's switch to digital television. It will start by hosting an interactive web forum with input and help from Sound & Vision magazine. The forum will host consumer questions to address what Circuit City is billing as "a significant shift in the way television is broadcast and received."

While that is true, the actual amount of Americans expected to be impacted by the switch from analog to digital is definitely not the majority of TV consumers in this country. But, there's nothing wrong with Circuit City using this transition as a marketing tool to move more digital television sets, right? Every other competitor will be doing the same thing, although most of them will also be carrying the $50-60 converter boxes meant to allow older televisions to receive the new digital signals next year. My guess is that those products will be placed next to signage on discounted flat-panel sets and credit applications. Which would you pick?

Analyst initiations: Cable and Satellite Pay TV industry and FPIC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Cable and Satellite Pay TV industry and FPIC Insurance were today's noteworthy initiations:
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Early analyst calls: CSCO, DTV, RL ...

JPMorgan downgraded Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) from "overweight" to "neutral," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Merrill Lynch upgraded DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) from "neutral" to "buy."

Citigroup cut Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) from "buy" to "hold" and UBS raised Principal Financial (NYSE: PFG) to "neutral" from "sell," according to 24/7 Wall St.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Early analyst calls: MS, WFC, GOOG ...

DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) was upped from "market perform" to "outperform" at Bernstein according to Briefing.com. The news service also said that Morgan Stanley has downgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) from "equal weight" to "under-weight."

Jefferies downgraded Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) to "hold" from "buy," according to 24/7 Wall St. The website also said that Goldman Sachs downgraded Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) from "buy" to "neutral".

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: July 09, 2008: 03:26 AM

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