Thursday morning, the Commerce Department announced that orders for U.S.-made durable goods dropped during November, falling 1.3% for the month. The drop was larger than the expected drop of 0.5%.

Taking transportation out of the picture, new orders increased by 2.4%, showing that the major drag on the data was transportation-equipment orders. Core durable-goods orders (which exclude defense and aircraft) increased 2.6%, a far better performance than the 3.6% decline in October. Analysts at Barclay's Capital called for a gain in core capital goods that reflect, "further expansion in the manufacturing sector."

Among the quarterly results scheduled for this holiday-shortened week, investors may be thankful for the earnings results from Tyson Foods (TSN). The Arkansas-based poultry and meat producer reported on its sustainability efforts and also was named McDonalds' (MCD) supplier of the year during its fiscal fourth quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast earnings for that period to have doubled from a year ago to 56 cents per share.

Tyson is also expected to post revenue of $7.8 billion for the three months that ended in September, which is 7.4% more than in the same period of fiscal 2009. And the consensus estimate for the full year calls for earnings of $2.08 per share (+87.0%) and revenue of $28.7 billion (+7.3%). Tyson's earnings have been better than expected in recent quarters, beating consensus estimates by as much as 24 cents per share.

Institutional investors are sometimes chastised for placing too much emphasis on a given economic statistic.

And with good reason: one positive or negative data point doesn't make a trend, and equally significant -- the very data point investors claim 'signals' the start of new bullish (or bearish) trend, frequently is revised, sometimes substantially -- making the previous bullish or bearish conclusion look premature, if not irrational.

That said, there are those 'telling stats' that offer a binocular view -- what may be ahead for the U.S. economy down the road. And one is: durable goods orders excluding transportation goods [PDF download].

Housing steps into the spotlight again this coming week. The release of the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index starts out the week on Monday morning. Then on Tuesday morning, look for housing starts data from August. Release of the July FHFA House Price Index is scheduled for Wednesday. And numbers for existing home sales and for new home sales in August are due out Thursday and Friday, respectively. Overall, the housing market is expected to have continued to lose momentum in August, but less dramatically than in July.

Also on the economic calendar this week: Tuesday's FOMC meeting on interest rates, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators Index for August on Thursday, initial jobless claims for last week, and durable goods orders data for August on Friday. No significant changes from the Fed are anticipated, but the leading economic indicators may rise a bit.

Wednesday morning got off to a slow start for the market as a whole, and the July home sales report didn't going to help matters much. According to the Commerce Department, new home sales plummeted 12.4% in July compared to June.

The drop brings the seasonally adjusted annual sales pace to 276,600, far short of the expected pace of 330,000. Not only is this pace short of the expected result, but it is the slowest pace on record, which dates back to 1963.

There were two major data releases Thursday morning, both of which are having an impact on the market.

First we have the Labor Department's release of initial unemployment claims data. According to the government, first-time applications for state unemployment fell by 19,000 last week. This is good news because it is the lowest level of claims in six weeks and the number came in lower than the expected 472,000.

It isn't hard to figure what's been weighing on the Dow recently. True, the soap opera-like drama being played out in Europe regarding how to point Greece toward fiscal solvency has been on traders' minds, but the big mood changer on Wall Street concerns U.S. unemployment and health of the nation's industrial sector.

Two, consecutive, unexpected increases in initial jobless claims -- they jumped 22,000 this week to 496,000 -- have given the market's bears some evidence to argue that a double-dip recession is not entirely beyond the realm of possibility.

As the calendar quarter winds down, let's take look at some of this coming week's biggest expected earnings gainers.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Memphis-based Fred's Inc. (NASDAQ: FRED) to report fourth-quarter earnings of $0.22 per share, 36.4% higher than a year ago, and revenue of $472.5 million, down 4.4%. For the full year, the forecast is for a profit of $0.66 per share on revenue of $1.8 billion, compared to $0.52 per share and $1.8 billion in the previous year. The discount retailer beat or met earnings estimates in the past three quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 14.0%, which is better than the industry average and that of larger rival Walmart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and the forward PE ratio estimate is 15.0. In the third quarter, the company had more cash than debt. The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy FRED. The share price has risen 2.7% since the beginning of the year to $11.05.

Wall Street is already bracing itself for dismal earnings reports this week. What else is coming done the pike? Here's a look at what's on the economic calendar for the week of January 26, 2009:

• Existing home sales (Dec. 2008): Monday, 10:00 AM
• Leading Indicators Index (Dec. 2008): Monday, 10:00 AM
• Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on interest rates: Monday, 8:00 PM
• Consumer Confidence Index (Jan. 2009): Tuesday, 10:00 AM
• Federal Reserve's FOMC decision on short-term interest rates: Wednesday, 2:15 PM
• Durable goods orders (Dec. 2008): Thursday, 8:30 AM
• Initial jobless claims (w/o Jan. 24): Thursday, 8:30 AM
• New housing sales (Dec. 2008): Thursday, 10:00 AM
• Employment Cost Index (Q4 2008): Friday, 8:30 AM
• Gross domestic product (Q4 2008): Friday, 8:30 AM
• Chicago Purchasing Manager Business Barometer (Jan. 2009): Friday, 9:45 AM
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jan. 2009): Friday, 10:00 AM

For expectations from some of this week's earnings releases, see The week in preview: High hopes for McDonald's, Pfizer, Netflix, P&G.

U.S. durable goods orders were flat in May, as demand for airplanes and defense goods offset weakness in machinery and metals, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected May durable goods orders to remain flat. Durable goods orders decreased a revised 1.0% in April.

Equally significant, excluding the often-volatile transportation component, durable goods orders fell 0.9% in May. Also, excluding defense orders, durable goods orders declined 0.6%.

In May, shipments fell 1.1%, unfilled orders increased 0.9%, inventories increased 0.4%.

By category, in May orders for civilian aircraft jumped 10.3%, transportation increased 2.6%, computers and electronics climbed 2%, motor vehicles and parts declined 3.3%, transportation goods dropped 3.7%, and machinery declined 5.3%.

Foreign demand continues

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Wednesday exports continue to offset sluggish domestic demand conditions. "Export demand continued in the May report. It's helping keep U.S. businesses and factories busy during this down period in domestic demand," Wang said.

U.S. durable goods orders in April 2008 fell just 0.5% but the core rate rose as demand for electronics goods offset weakness in airplanes / autos, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected April 2008 durable goods orders to decline 1.1%. Durable goods orders decreased a revised 0.9% in March 2008.

Equally significant, excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 2.5% in April 2008, the biggest increase in nine months, and the second straight increase. Durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 1.5% in March 2008.

In April 2008 electrical equipment / appliances / components orders rose 27.8%, non-defense capital goods increased 4.2%, shipments rose 0.5%, unfilled orders increased 1.0%, transportation fell 8%, airplane orders fell 24%, and automobiles declined 3.3%.

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks exports are offsetting sluggish domestic demand conditions. "In the April report we can see demand from foreign purchasers picking up. If this trend continues in the months ahead it will help the U.S. pull out of its housing-induced economic contraction," Wang said. "China, broader Asia, and Latin America are helping to fill in the gaps created by low domestic demand."

Further, Wang said the significant export lift is yet another change created by globalization -- the development of national economies and the spread of capitalism to every region of the world. If that foreign demand remains strong, the export trend has the capacity to shorten the U.S. recession -- "make it more shallow" than previous U.S. economic downturns.

U.S. durable goods orders fell 0.3% in March 2008, as demand for machinery dropped substantially, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected March 2008 durable goods orders to rise 0.6%. Durable goods orders decreased a revised 0.9% in February 2008.

Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 1.5% in March 2008.

In March 2008 core capital goods orders were flat, after declining the previous two months. Inventories rose 1.1%, the category's eighth increase in the past nine months. Shipments decreased 0.4%, its fourth decline in the last five months. Unfilled orders increased 0.9%.

Another negative datapoint

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Thursday the March 2008 durable goods statistic is additional bad news for the U.S. economy.

"Demand continues to weaken, and a third straight durable goods order decline indicates that the U.S. economy is contracting. For the economy to grow, we must see stronger durable goods demand, " Wang said. "If you exclude the defense-related hardware component, the durable goods order statistic would have been even worse. U.S. corporations continue to benefit from international demand, but those exports are not enough to overcome clear weakness in orders and sales at home."

U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.7% in February 2008, as demand for machinery dropped substantially, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected February 2008 durable goods orders to rise 0.7%. Durable goods orders decreased a revised 4.7% in January 2008. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 2.6% in February 2008, the biggest decline since January 2007.

Machinery orders weigh

In February 2008, capital goods orders fell 2.6% following a 1.8% drop in January 2008, as businesses cut back purchases that enhance productivity -- historically a sign that they believe sluggish economic times are ahead. Equally telling, machinery orders plunged 13.3% in February 2008. Motor vehicle orders dropped 2.7%. Aircraft orders were a bright spot, rising 5.4%.

Shipments dropped 2.1%, the most since January 2007. Orders excluding defense equipment declined 1.6% and bookings for military gear plummeted 10%.

More bad news for U.S. economy

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Wednesday the disappointing February 2008 durable goods statistic is more troubling news for the economy.

"If we're not in a recession right now, I don't know what nation is," Wang said. "Demand is weakening and American corporations are putting off capital goods purchases on what they're seeing in the home economy, which is softer demand." Wang added that U.S. multinational corporations will continue to benefit from decent export sales, particularly to emerging markets, but domestic market-oriented companies will show "clear effects of the U.S. slowdown" in their quarterly results this year.