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The week in preview: Trick or treat earnings?

So this earnings season hasn't turned out as bad as some had feared. In fact, we've seen some pretty stellar results from the likes of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO).

Then there was the Fed's Beige Book report, which suggested that the U.S. economy had stabilized -- and even improved a bit in some sectors.

Well, the earnings crunch rolls on this coming week leading up to Halloween. Do analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect more treats or tricks from coming quarterly reports?

Continue reading The week in preview: Trick or treat earnings?

Stock picks and pans for troubled times: DV, DLTR, BP, ATI, GE, C, MO, K, AAPL, CELG ...

Seems that even this shortened week was full of news and happenings, in the U.S. and around the world. With Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) being bailed out by the U.S. government at the beginning of the week and China announcing fiscal and monetary stimulus plans, the Dow industrials finished in positive territory four days in a row.

But as analysts and pundits, as well as each and every economic release -- in the U.S. and around the world -- remind us, we are not out of the woods yet and the rally has really been a bear-market rally.

Investors looking to take advantage of such rallies, or at least feel they hold stable long-term holdings, can search this week's BloggingStocks' contributors' picks:

Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) and Devry Inc. (NYSE: DV) -- It's often been suggested that educators do well in times of recession and high unemployment as workers look to improve or change their education to get a better job. Leo Fasciocco thinks these two are poised for a breakout.

Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) reported stronger-than-expected earnings this week and also hiked its forecast. Not surprisingly, cash-strapped consumers turn more and more to discounters. Dollar Tree may continue to benefit from the economic downturn and the stock could also experience a short-squeeze rally.

Continue reading Stock picks and pans for troubled times: DV, DLTR, BP, ATI, GE, C, MO, K, AAPL, CELG ...

Apollo (APOL) and Devry (DV): Top of the class in adult education

Few stocks are poised to benefit from economic woes and rising unemployment. One group, however, that appears to be an exception is for-profit adult education stocks.

These companies, which operate school campuses and online education programs, are viewed by some as beneficiaries of a growing need for worker retraining and the rising demand for education by those changing careers or re-entering the work force as adults.

Leo Fasciocco is a technical expert, specializing in finding stocks that are "breaking out" -- those moving above previous technical resistance levels or poised to do so.

His two of the latest breakout stocks featured in his The Ticker Tape Digest are both in the for-profit education field: Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) and Devry Inc. (NYSE: DV). Here's his assessment.

"Apollo, based in Phoenix, is the largest for-profit education company, with more than 300,000 students. APOL focuses on working adults and operates 259 campuses and learning centers in 40 states, as well as various international locations.

"Programs range from associate to doctorate degrees in areas such as business, education, health care, technology. The company said it is showing solid enrollment growth. Annual revenues are $3 billion.

"The company recently reported that net for the fiscal fourth quarter excluding special items increased 20% to 75 cents a share from 62 cents a year ago. Revenues for the quarter rose 17%. Analysts had expected net of just 64 cents a share. So, results were a positive surprise.

"For fiscal 2009 ending August 31, analysts predict a 17% increase in net to $3.31 a share from $2.84 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 20, which is reasonable.

"Institutional sponsorship is very good. Five-star rated Janus Mid Cap Value Fund was a recent buyer of 550,000 shares. Also, 4-star rated GMO US Quality Equity III Fund recently picked up 779,000 shares.

"Devry, based in Oakbrook Terrace, Il., is one of the largest for-profit education companies, with annual revenues of $1.1 billion. DeVry University offers undergraduate and graduate programs in business and technology fields. They account for 77% of revenue.

"Under its health-care segment, Ross University offers medical and veterinarian programs, and Chamberlain College offers nursing degrees.

"Recently acquired schools add allied health programs. Its professional segment offers review courses through its Becker CPA review and Stalla CFA review programs.

"DV's technicals set up surprisingly well. The momentum indicator is strongly bullish. Recent price action shows good institutional buying interest. However, investors should be patient with this stock; we are looking for a key breakout over 58.50 before entering.

"The company tends to show consistently good earnings growth. This fiscal year ending June 30, analysts predict a 22% increase in net to $2.18 a share from $1.78 a year ago.

"The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 23, which is reasonable given the earnings growth rate. Looking out to fiscal 2010, the Street projects a 24% gain in net to $2.69 a share.

"The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Baron Growth Fund with a big 5.2% stake. It has held its position steady. A recent large buyer was 5-star rated Hartford Midcap Fund, which purchased 385,000 shares.

"Over the past 2 years shows, DV's stock has appreciated 120%. That easily outperformed the S&P 500 index which declined 25% over the same time. Recent price action shows good institutional buying interest.

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Grand Canyon Education set to end IPO drought

Grand Canyon Education Inc. will end the four-month IPO drought when it goes public this month. According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "The company plans to sell 10.5 million shares at a price between $16 and $18, $2 lower than originally planned, and will list on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol LOPE. Credit Suisse Group and Merrill Lynch & Co. are the lead underwriters. The deal is expected to begin trading Nov. 20."

Grand Canyon Education Inc. was formed when Grand Canyon University, then a struggling public college, was taken private by Significant Education LLC in January of 2004. The school's roots go back to 1949 when it was established as a Christian university by the Arizona Southern Baptists. The school's list of notable alumni is mainly athletes: former Major League Baseball players Tim Salmon and Chad Curtis, along with Ultimate Fighter Efrain Escudero.

The company may be adversely effected by tightening in the student loan market, which is likely to have a disproportionate effect on for-profit colleges. On the other hand, economic woes may inspire more workers to go back to school to seek more specialized training. So far shares of for-profit college operators like DeVry Inc. (NYSE: DV) and Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) have held up extremely well in comparison to the broader market.

For more information, read the registration statement here.

DeVry (DV) posts triple digit income increase

One good thing to come out of the softening economy is that working adults may return to school in larger than average numbers to brush up on the latest in-demand job skills. DeVry Incorporated (NYSE: DV) is well placed to provide convenient, affordable, job-related educational opportunities. In its most recent quarter, DeVry's student enrollment grew 10%, it opened two new physical campuses and beefed up its accounting and finance programs.

Revenues for 2Q 2008, announced January 24, increased 16% to $237.7 million, but operating income increased 115% to $46.9 million, while net income increased 118% to $35.8 million, and diluted EPS increased 113% to $0.49.

At a cost of $27.5 million in cash, DeVry recently acquired Advanced Academics, Inc., which provides K-12 online educational opportunieis for the growing cyber-home school segment. DeVry's student loan program is in good shape, a claim not all for-profit educational companies can make.

The stock gained 3.6% on January 31 to close at $55.19, but gave up half that gain on February 1 to close down 1.5% at $54.35, before regaining that decline on February 4 to close at $55.11, up 1.4%. Investors may wish to investigate the for-profit educational sector for possible attractive growth candidates.

Analyst downgrades: Regional banks, SBUX and MEDX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Regional banks, Starbucks and Medarex were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Keefe Bruette downgraded regional banks, including Cullen/Frost Bankers (NYSE:CFR) and Susquehanna Bancshares (NASDAQ:SUSQ) to Market Perform from Outperform and BB&T Corp (NYSE:BBT) to Underperform from Market Perform, on valuation and new economic baseline.
  • Goldman downgraded shares of Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) to Neutral from Buy on U.S. competition and consumer demand concerns.
  • Bear lowered its rating on Medarex (NASDAQ:MEDX) to Peer Perform from Outperform
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded DeVry (NYSE:DV) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
  • B. Riley lowered Hill International (NASDAQ:HINT) to Neutral from Buy.
  • HSBC downgraded Nikon Corp (NINOY) to Underweight from Neutral.

Analyst initiations 7-16-07: CECO, COCO, HLYS and UTI

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Heelys (HLYS), Audible (ADBL) and Response Genetics (RGDX) were today's most noteworthy initiations:
  • Baird believes Heelys (NYSE: HLYS) is poised to report strong results through FY07, which is not reflected in current valuation, and started shares with an Outperform rating and $47 target.
  • JMP Securities believes a growing number of consumers will opt to acquire books and physical CD audio books digitally over the internet and started shares of Audible (NASDAQ: ADBL) with an Outperform rating and $12.50 target.
  • Caris believes Response Genetics' (NASDAQ: RGDX) diagnostics opportunity may represent a significant long-term growth driver and initiated shares with a Buy rating and $7.50 target...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 6-29-07: ASFI and CMG

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The educational services industry, the Latin American airlines sector, Asta Funding Inc (NASDAQ: ASFI) and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • William Blair assumed coverage of Apollo Group Inc (NASDAQ: APOL) and Strayer Education Inc (NASDAQ: STRA) with Outperform ratings and Career Education Corporation (NASDAQ: CECO) with a Market Perform rating. The broker also assumed coverage and downgraded DeVry Inc (NYSE: DV) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on Copa Holdings (NYSE: CPA) with a Buy rating and $88 target, GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (NYSE: GOL) and TAM SA (NYSE: TAM) with Neutral ratings and Lan Airlines SA (NYSE: LFL) with a Sell rating and $93 target; Lan Airlines was also initiated at Morgan Stanley with an Overweight rating and $105 target.
  • Asta Funding was initiated at Kaufman Brothers with a Buy rating and $55 target. The firm believes the company should grow earnings at a midpoint of 20% over time, with near-term growth at 15% and longer-term growth at 20%-25%.
  • Citigroup initiated shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill with a Buy rating and $100 target, as the firm expects the company will see unit growth at a rate in the high-teens while experiencing above-average SSS and some margin expansion.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Option update 6-13-07: DeVry, AvalonBay

DeVry Inc. (NYSE: DV) -- implied volatility suggests Flat risk as DV rallies to 65 month high. DV, operates in three segments: DeVry University, Professional and Training, and Medical and Healthcare. DV is recently up $2.16 to $35.30. First Analysis Securities upgraded DVY to Overweight on "compelling margin improvement story." DV over all option implied volatility of 33 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

AvalonBay Communities Inc. (NYSE: AVB) -- puts bid up on unconfirmed takeover chatter. AVB is recently up $6.69 to $127. AVB is a real estate investment trust (REIT). AVB engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership and operation of multifamily communities. AVB has a market cap of $9.6 billion. AVB 26-week average option implied volatility is 25. AVB July call option implied volatility is at 23, puts are at 31 according to Track Data suggesting puts are priced for downside risk.

Option volume leaders today are: Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM), General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold, Inc. (NYSE: FCX).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ+41.622,154.06
S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 05:06 AM

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