Things weren't that pretty over at eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) in previous quarters as eBay stock declined 34% in the past year taking it to a low of $22.83 in August. Last quarter, however, eBay charmed the Street when it reported third-quarter financial results. Even Cramer did a backflip and considers eBay a value Internet stock. The stock climbed from its August low to hover around $30 lately.
For fiscal 2006 fourth quarter, consensus analyst estimate calls for earnings of 28 cents per share, in line with the company's guidance, and up from 20 cents last year. eBay gave revenue guidance for Q4 2006 to be in the range of $1.615 billion to $1.675 billion. According to Thomson, analysts call for a 25% growth in sales to $1.67 billion.
eBay will be reporting Wednesday January 24th after the close, and I'll liveblog the webcast beginning 2 p.m. Pacific, 5 p.m. Eastern. It will be interesting to see how eBay does. Here's what analysts (and I) expect to hear:
Posts with tag eachnet
eBay's Q4 earnings preview: Is the magic back?
Continue reading eBay's Q4 earnings preview: Is the magic back?
How should eBay grow now?
"If you want what you never had, then do what you have never done."
I don't know to whom to attribute that quote. It was on a T-shirt my niece was wearing when we went to her home for Christmas dinner. When I saw it, it hit me like a warm balmy breeze on a cold December day. Those are the simple words which I have never condensed into such a simple statement, yet they are representative of the dynamics which have colored my life. Yes, I'm that guy you never really got to know when you worked with him or went to school with him. I'm that guy who was "over there". I'm that guy who fights against conventional wisdom. It's not because I can't buy into the concepts of what already works. It's a matter of a bull headed refusal to be limited by a blind acceptance of the status quo. What already works isn't always good enough to satisfy me.
That's my position on eBay, Inc. (NYSE: EBAY). As a matter of fact, what already works over there doesn't seem to be working so well these days. I received an unofficial report today that as of Dec. 24, 2006, eBay listing count has dropped below 10 million. If that's true, it equals an over 30% decrease of average listing volume in the last quarter. This does somewhat mimic historical performance over the last three years.The most up-to-date figures that I can get which I trust are from medved up to Dec. 16, which show eBay listing volume at about 14.3 million on that date. In any case, based on my tracking of the numbers, things aren't really too good on eBay for overall listing quality and volume. The numbers over the next 30 days will tell the story as to the true effects of the eBay "revolutionaries" on that site and their future. If there is not a significant jump in listing volume beginning in January, be ready for some heads to roll.
eBay and Baidu sign a cross-promotional deal
I think we started talking about eBay, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:EBAY) endeavors in China months ago. Rumors kept surfacing every few months about eBay either getting out of China or making a deal with a local player. Just last week there were reports that Tom.com (NASDAQ:TOMO) and eBay EachNet were close to signing an agreement.
To hear, then, that eBay EachNet and Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) agreed on a partnership isn't surprising and what's more, it makes perfect sense.
With over 60% of the Chinese market, Baidu is China's largest portal and search engine. With this in mind, the cross-promotional partnership could greatly benefit EachNet. Baidu will promote, PayPal Beibao, PayPal's Chinese service, as a preferred payment method while eBay EachNet will use Baidu exclusively for its search advertising. The companies will be testing the search as early as the first quarter; implementing by the second. A special toolbar, co-branded, will also be developed by the two companies.
Despite the fact that on the face of it the deal seems like it would benefit EachNet more than it would Baidu, BIDU shares are up 2.8% while EBAY shares are flat (by 11:30 a.m.). All in all, I'd say this is a positive move for eBay as the company's starting to show a strategy for this market.
Finally, if you recall, rumors of Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) or Yahoo!, Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) acquiring Baidu have also been floating around. If there is any truth to these rumors, this would be weird as Yahoo! holds a stake in eBay's competitor in China, Alibaba's Taobao.
Have Tom.com and eBay China finally signed an agreement?
It seems that only yesterday we talked about these rumors. Actually, it was at the end of September.
Once again the rumors come from a source I'm not sure about, China TechNews.com (I guess that's why they're called rumors). Yet, when this same source reported about the resignation of eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) China, or eBay Eachnet's CEO; a report that ended up being correct.
Now the Internet magazine is reporting (citing Chinese media sources) that Tom Online (NASDAQ:TOMO) has signed an agreement with eBay Eachnet to acquire it with a formal announcement coming soon.
Apparently, someone named Zhou Kaixuan, who is also a shareholder in eBay's Skype (which sounds a little odd to me), was the mediator in the negotiations. That's a pretty specific detail, I'd say.
eBay is denying the rumor.
Well, this doesn't sit well with me at all:
- First of all, Meg Whitman, eBay's CEO just recently said in the Q3 earnings call that eBay is committed to China.
- Second, after leaving Japan and having increasingly strong competition from Gmarket in Korea, selling eBay Eachnet would mean eBay is not only leaving China, but the whole of Asia pretty much (well, not India).
- Third, I also mentioned here the possible difficulties for Skype in China and PayPal already has a problem there with regulations as it cannot be fully owned by foreigners. What does that leave then?
I still hope that the rumors are wrong and that there is a strategy hidden in those sale rumors.









