Boeing (BA - option chain) shares are rising today after the US Air Force announced it has awarded a $35 billion contract to develop and manufacture a new aerial refueler to Boeing. Boeing is expected to deliver the first 18 aircraft by 2017. The total contract includes the supply of 179 refueling tankers. This is a major coup for Boeing, who was expected to lose out on the contract to rival EADS. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on BA.

BA opened this morning at $73.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $72.06 and a high of $74.29. As of 12:25, BA is trading at $72.50 up $1.74 (2.5%). The chart for BA looks bullish and S&P gives BA a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) to buy from hold based on valuation. The firm keeps a $39 target on the stock.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Kenexa (KNXA) to overweight from neutral, citing a strengthening of trends for the company. The firm has a $29 price target on the stock.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Gaylord Entertainment (GET) to buy from neutral on expectations the company will benefit from strong trends in 2011. The firm raised its target for shares to $35 from $32.50.
• MeadWestvaco (MWV) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• EADS (EADSY) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.

Late Tuesday, aerospace firm Boeing (BA) announced its first major deal at the Dubai Airshow. While this is good news for BA, the bad news is that the majority of the $2 billion of deals available at the show went to rival Airbus. BA revealed nearly $900 million of deals with Algerian airlines, while Airbus announced $1.25 billion of confirmed orders.

These orders bring the total dollar amount of orders at the Airshow to $5.67 billion for 42 aircraft. This total is a mere pittance compared to the $155.5 billion worth of deals scored in 2007. BA's Randy Tinseth noted, "it's a completely different market from two years ago," sentiment agreed upon by Airbus's CEO Tom Enders.

With the company having reached a tentative, new, 4-year contract agreement with its engineers, it appears Boeing will avoid a second, internecine work stoppage.

What Boeing will not be able to do, however, is avoid a decidedly downward revision in company and stock performance expectations, so says Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer.

U.S. business: A difficult decade

Bauer, not one to wax philosophic, nevertheless takes a historian's-like view of Boeing's actions -- and the actions of numerous other companies -- in recent years.

"It's as if we decided as a nation to place all of the most idiotic, self-defeating, and economically-damaging business decisions in one decade," Bauer said. "It's as if the whole business community attended the wrong business school." The Boeing Company's (NYSE: BA) shares rose 45 cents to $42.51 in Monday afternoon trading.

In the quarters ahead, new autos may not be the only inventory item piling up.

A 'really big ticket item' -- new commercial airplanes -- may start piling up, as well. Boeing and Airbus may end up with as many as 200 new planes without buyers in 2009 because airlines are unable to obtain funds to pay for them, due to the credit crunch.

In the second half of 2008, banks and other sources of capital decreased lending to airlines -- and to just about everyone else, it seems -- on concerns the loans won't be paid back. Other banks are decreasing lending primarily as a means of rebuilding damaged balance sheets.

The lending cutback may create a funding gap of about $65 billion at Boeing next year, and a $20 billion gap at Airbus. Boeing Capital Corp., the airplane manufacturing giant's financing unit, is expected to make $1 billion in loans to customers in 2009.

Another difficult data point for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner.

Boeing announced that it will delay the first test flight of its next-generation jetliner, the 787 Dreamliner, beyond Q4, citing the recently-ended machinists strike, Bloomberg News reported.

Further, the company set no new time frame for the plane, the test flight of which has already been delayed three times and is currently 15 months behind schedule, Bloomberg News reported. An eight-week strike with the machinists union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, was settled November 2, with machinists approving a new contract shortly thereafter.

The Boeing Company's (NYSE: BA) shares slid $4.09 to $49.53 Wednesday afternoon amid a broader market sell-off.

Reuters reports that EADS, the parent of Airbus, has suggested it may not bid for the $35 billion Air Force contract for airborne refueling tankers. Reuters quotes a senior EADS manager as saying, "We will only bid if we can be sure that we stand a fair chance." This threat mirrors the one that Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) made recently -- a threat that paid off for Boeing when the Secretary of Defense announced this week that the tanker competition would be canceled and rebid sometime after the November election.

This puts a French company as a player in this November's election. How so? Because one of the candidates, John McCain, is rooting for an EADS victory. That's because his former chief of finance, Tom Loeffler, is a lobbyist for EADS whose employees have contributed $14,000 to McCain's campaign. And those ties likely corrupted the previous bidding process that led the General Accounting Office (GAO) in June to report that the process was flawed -- leading to a rebid. It is too early to know whether EADS money will pay off in an election victory for McCain.

However, for Boeing, the news of EADS copying its tactic of threatening to withdraw its bid is the sincerest form of flattery. Meanwhile, Boeing's victory in getting the bid delayed could be a Pyrrhic one -- in other words it could win a short-term battle and lose the war as did "King Pyrrhus of Epirus, whose army suffered irreplaceable casualties in defeating the Romans at Heraclea in 280 BC and Asculum in 279 BC during the Pyrrhic War," according to Wikipedia.

In business, as in international relations, there are battles you fight and battles you don't fight.

It looks like Boeing's decision earlier this year to protest the U.S. Department of Defense's award of an aerial refueling tanker contract constituted a savvy corporate tactic. Government auditors first ordered a rerun of the competition, and then today U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates delayed the $35 billion award contest, saying there isn't enough time to complete the contest fairly, by the end of the Bush Administration, the Pentagon announced.

"Over the past seven years the process has become enormously complex and emotional -- in no small part because of mistakes and missteps along the way by the Department of Defense," Secretary Gates said in a statement. "It is my judgment that in the time remaining to us, we can no longer complete a competition that would be viewed as fair and objective in this highly charged environment."

Gates added that the 'cooling off' period will allow the next administration to objectively review the military requirements and craft a new acquisition strategy for the refueling tanker.

Yesterday I speculated that McCain picked Sarah Palin as his VP over the objections of his advisers. I thought that McCain -- who prides himself on fighting corruption in politics -- somehow saw himself in her. But both politicians have experience with the very thing they pride themselves on fighting.

In the case of McCain, his efforts to rid politics of the corrupting influence of corporate money followed his protection of Charles Keating who was securing a real estate deal for his wife, Cindy. The bankruptcy of Keating's S&L cost taxpayers $3.4 billion. More recently former McCain Finance Chair Tom Loeffler, a lobbyist for French company EADS, parent of Airbus, helped it and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) to prevail in a $35 billion competition for airborne refueling Tankers in February over Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) before the General Accounting Office (GAO) concluded that the process was flawed.

Alaska's governor, Sarah Palin, knows a thing or two about lobbyists. The New York Times reveals that she won that post after taking on bribery charges from the oil industry against politicians -- her attack against such corrupting influences helped her prevail over former Alaska governor, Frank Murkowski. That's why it came as a surprise to learn that as governor Palin employed a lobbyist for an energy company for which she procured $500 million in state subsidies so it could build a gas pipeline.

BusinessWeek reports that Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) has repeated its threat not to bid on the $35 billion competition to supply an airborne refueling tanker to the Air Force. This is a competition that pits a Republican presidential candidate and his lobbyist former finance chair on the dole of a French aircraft company and its Alabama partner against the future prospects of a Democratically controlled Congress and White House that would tend to favor Boeing -- which has many workers in Washington state.

By threatening not to bid, Boeing is taking many big risks. The Air Force may decide to keep the terms of the competition the same -- bids due October 1 -- and contract wrap up before New Year's Day. If Boeing does not bid and the competition proceeds, EADS, parent of Airbus, and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) -- with many of its workers in the Republican-leaning Alabama -- would win the bid uncontested. If the Air Force extends the process another four months -- which Boeing would prefer -- there is a chance that the Air Force would still end up choosing the French company.

But Boeing is gambling that the odds of a more favorable outcome are greater if it threatens not to bid. Boeing thinks that Congress will not want only one bid for the Tanker and that Congress and the White House are likely to be controlled by the Democratic party in January. With the French lobbyist-backed candidate in the Senate minority, Boeing will be in a better position to shape the Tanker competition in a way that favors its victory.

Airlines globally could lose $6.1 billion in 2008, on soaring oil prices and financial market dislocation, the head of the International Air Transport Association said, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday (subscription required).

Giovanni Bisignani, managing director of the IATA, which represents 230 airlines, called the sector "a fragile industry in a crisis" and that it's "bracing for more situations of airlines collapsing," due to high fuel prices and lower revenue, The Journal reported. Further, the air travel slowdown, once thought to be contained to developed nations, has spread to global air travel's plum: Asia, he added.

Airline slowdown could hurt Boeing, Airbus

Stock analyst and frequent flier C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Thursday if the Asian hemisphere is slowing, to go along with sluggish revenue statistics in Europe and the United States, the slowdown "would have wide implications, not just for airlines, but for airplane manufacturers Boeing and Airbus."

"Further consolidation globally, was a given, particularly in nations like India, which had too many airlines even before the global economy slowed, but the concern now is that national carriers will postpone or cancel plane orders," Bauer said. "From a U.S. perspective, that could mean bad news for Boeing. And what's bad news for Boeing is bad news for the U.S economy. Airplane sales have been one of the U.S. economy's few bright spots." [Bauer added that he does not own shares in or have a rating on any airline or airplane manufacturer. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines (NYSE: AMR).]

Reuters reports that Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) is signaling that it may not submit a bid for the $35 billion Air Force contract for Tankers -- airborne refueling vehicles. Is Boeing serious about not submitting a bid or is it using its leverage to get the Air Force to revise the bidding process to create a more level playing field?

The tanker contract has a long history. The Air Force awarded it this February to EADS, parent of Airbus, and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC). Boeing protested the award citing errors in the way the process was run. The General Accounting Office (GAO) sided with Boeing. And the Air Force announced that it would rebid the contract. But many thought that the rebidding process favored the French company.

Now Boeing is considering not submitting a bid. If Boeing ends up not bidding, it will be an embarrassment for the Air Force, which was bending over backwards to change the specifications to keep Airbus and Northrop in the process so there would be two bidders. Or it might have been to satisfy Thomas Loeffler, an EADS lobbyist who headed up John McCain's finance committee. Regardless of why it was done, if Boeing doesn't bid, the Air Force will be in a tight spot.

Investors and readers are probably aware of production snags that have delayed two next-generation airplanes, Airbus' A380 Superjumbo and Boeing's 787 Dreamliner.

But now there's word of production delays for two existing aircraft, Airbus's A330 and Boeing's 777.

A shortage of seats, toilets, and galleys is slowing down A330 and 777 assembly lines, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday (subscription required). Managers at the world's two rival commercial aviation giants suggest the snags could affect this year's financial results, but neither company has issued an earnings warning.

Shares of Boeing (NYSE: BA) gained $1.87 to $66.56, while shares of Airbus' parent EADS rose 1.27 euros to 14.85 euros on the Paris Exchange, in Friday afternoon trading.

Contractor ramp-up issues

For Boeing and Airbus, the crux of the problem stems from the relatively small size of the contractors producing equipment such as jetliner galleys, toilets and business-class seats, The Journal reported. Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Friday the problem Boeing and Airbus face is "an upside problem," but a problem nonetheless.

"It's called the problem of success. Jetliner orders and deliveries have risen more than 40% in five years and contractors are straining to keep up," Bauer said. "It had to happen sooner or later, because it's hard for contractors to in some cases double production of a part in two or three years." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Boeing or Airbus.

It's a macroeconomic headwind that could produce a jetliner order headwind.

International Lease Finance Corp. said it may order 300 jetliners from Boeing and Airbus to meet lease demand from airlines that can no longer afford to buy their own planes, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

International Lease said it may purchase 150 single-aisle aircraft from each aerospace company. The orders would be worth about $22 billion at current plane prices, exclusive of discounts.

Boeing (NYSE: BA) shares fell $4.83 to $69.99 on the news, while Airbus's parent EADS' shares rose 39 euro cents to €12.95 in afternoon trading in Paris.

High oil prices take a toll

Stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Wednesday the era's record-high jet fuel prices are beginning to take a toll on airline business models. "If high prices, basically oil above $120 a barrel, persist, you will see order cancellations, and more postponements, in the U.S. and abroad," Bauer said. "Some airline business models just won't work with oil at $120-$125 or higher, so you will begin to see order delays and cancellations." Bauer added that he does not have ratings on, nor own shares in any airline or airline manufacturer.

The Government Accountability Office has decided that the Air Force has done Boeing (NYSE: BA) dirty. It says that in the bidding process for a new air tanker, the Air Force should not have favored Northrop-Grumman (NYSE:NOC) for the project. NOC won the tanker deal several months ago.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the decision "effectively gives Boeing the chance to recapture its decades-long lock on the business of supplying planes that can refuel other planes in midair." The GAO said the Air Force analysts had made mistakes in some of their evaluation analysis.

The whole matter stinks. Boeing has been able to push its agenda in Washington by lobbying hard to keep jobs for the tanker in the US. The Northrop proposal would have had EADS, the European airplane maker, do some of the work. Several senators got behind the idea that Boeing should get another chance.

Was the GAO influenced by Congress? Who will ever know, but if Boeing, which is the incumbent for supplying the military tankers, can get into the position to bid again, something seems a bit off.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.