earnings growth posts
FeedPosted Sep 5th 2008 3:28PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Bad news, Employees, Economic data, Recession

Political science empirical research teaches us that when U.S. unemployment is rising and job losses occur over many months, the political party in charge of the White House will have a difficult presidential election. (See:
The American Voter, by Campbell, Converse, Miller, and Stokes.)
Federal statisticians will release one more jobs report, the September jobs report in October, but to-date the trend is not one of U.S. economic health.
The
U.S. Labor Department announced Friday that the U.S. economy lost another 84,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rising to 6.1% - - a five-year high.
The U.S. economy has now lost 605,000 jobs in 2008 after creating just 1.1 million in 2007. Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Friday the U.S. economy is not growing.
'U.S. economy headed in wrong direction'"The U.S. economy is in recession. We don't have to wait for two-quarter date to confirm it. These are very bad numbers and the economy is headed in the wrong direction," Wang said. "Electioneering attempts aside, the U.S. economy is, objectively, in bad shape and anyone who fails to see this fails to recognize reality."
Continue reading Eighth straight monthly job loss shows everything is not fine with U.S. economy
Posted Apr 1st 2008 9:30AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Economic data, Housing, Recession

As economists and stock reviewers will vouch, analysis can vary depending one's prism, or perspective -- i.e. how one views the economic world.
Look at the 2008 U.S. economy one way, and you see the onset of a conventional recession. Five or so years of GDP growth, earnings growth, investment, resource / commodity / raw material utilization, and consumption have basically run their course, and a pause is due. It's a period of lower earnings, less investment, lower consumption, and we call these pauses
recessions.
Look at the 2008 U.S. economy another way and you see a different picture. Five or so years of GDP growth, earnings growth, but also substantial asset price inflation - - primarily in residential real estate - - combined with only modest improvement in the U.S. trade deficit, federal budget deficit, national savings rate, and a substantial weakening of the U.S. dollar. Then, a period of slower growth ensues, a slowdown made all the more onerous by the appearance of a credit crunch that began when the real estate balloon began to deflate, if not burst.
Continue reading Is the U.S. entering a conventional, or unconventional, recession?
Posted Dec 3rd 2007 2:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Analyst reports, Good news, Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Economic data
Corporate profits have slowed in Q3, and U.S. economic growth most likely slowed in Q4 as well, but analysts say talk of a recession may be slightly premature.
Corporate profits fell to an annual rate of $19.3 billion in Q3 as domestic earnings dropped by $41.2 billion, according to U.S. Commerce Department data. The U.S. economy is being hurt by sluggish retail sales and write-downs in the subprime mortgage sector; the two have been offset by strong earnings abroad, but the domestic side may outdo the international side in Q4.
"The earnings recession has already arrived,'' said David Rosenberg, North America economist for Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) in New York told Bloomberg News. "We are going to see an economic recession in '08.''
The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index for November 2007 totaled 50.8, above the consensus estimate, but slower than October 2007's reading of 50.9. Any reading above 50 indicates economic expansion.
Continue reading Despite profit slump, recession talk deemed premature
Posted Nov 20th 2007 10:53AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Other issues, China, Commodities, Oil, Eastern Europe, Agriculture

So far, China's effort to slow its economy is not working.
China's economy continues to grow at double-digit rates. Commodity and resource utilization remain high, speculative excesses abound, and exports? China's trade surplus keeps soaring, with the United States and Europe incurring rising trade deficits.
The Chinese government announced that over the past 12 months, China's trade deficit with Europe increased an alarming 46% to $135 billion,
The New York Times reported. Over the same period, the trade deficit with the United States did not increase as much, in percentage terms, up 18%, but in absolute terms the U.S. still leads the pack with a daunting $162 billion trade deficit.
Surging trade surplusFurther, during the past 12 months, China's overall trade surplus exceeded $250 billion, including a record $27 billion in October 2007.
Continue reading Growing pains: China's economy reveals costs
Posted May 10th 2007 11:50AM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Expedia Inc (EXPE), Bargain stocks
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Turnaround is here and it is time to jump into
Expedia Inc's (NASDAQ:
EXPE) stock. After hitting some serious growth problems, management changes and massive investment in new products and software infrastructure are finally leading to better revenue and earnings growth.
- OBITA increased 18%
- First quarter bookings hit the $5 billion mark, over $55 million every day
- European leisure business grew over 30% with revenue hitting $1 billion
- Free cash flow was $606 million and shares outstanding decreased by 11% during the past year due to big share buybacks
It appears many of the initiatives that have been put in place on now bearing fruit. I say, buy and hold this stock. Free cash flow should go through the roof the next few years as new deals with hotels and airlines take hold. Also, international business is getting stronger and stronger.
Once again, Barry Diller has made the correct adjustments with this business model being here to stay.
Posted Apr 28th 2007 12:10PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Rumors, Management, Competitive strategy, General Electric (GE)
Friday was a fascinating day for General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE); the shares were actually up $1 and trading volume was at 91 million shares, nearly triple the usual amount. The hoopla started when Citigroup research mentioned that GE should be broken up and spun off into separate companies. It's about time.
I have been writing about the possibility of GE splitting up for the past year for members of my website. It only makes sense. The problem with General Electric is that it has too many moving parts to properly predict consistent growth. GE is expected to generate revenues of $176 billion this year, with earnings per share of $2.22. For 2008, early consensus is for revenues of $196 billion and earnings per share of $2.48, barely a 10% increase over 2007.
Revenues are growing at slightly less than 10%. The 10% number is a magical number for Wall Street. If a company falls under that benchmark, serious questions about strategy and direction need to be asked -- and answered. Jeff Immelt, CEO, has been under the gun recently as the shares of GE have plodded along for the past six years in a narrow trading range. The bottom line is that there has been minimal growth for shareholders, but a decent dividend -- currently at $1.12, for a 3.1% yield.
GE has a market capitalization of $378 billion and is one of the most successful companies in the world. No question, investors who have owned the shares these past 20 years have been superbly and amply rewarded. The Jack Welch era saw skyrocketing growth of revenues and earnings, not to mention many new management principles crystallized in his books.
That was then -- this is now.
Continue reading General Electric: Breaking up is hard to do
Posted Mar 25th 2007 11:40AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Competitive strategy, General Electric (GE)
The Commercial Finance division of General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) is proposing a buyout of Japan's Sanyo Electric's (Other OTC:SANYY) credit operations for a cool $1.1 billion in cash. The board of Sanyo is recommending to the shareholders the acceptance of this deal. For GE, it is the smart move.
General Electric is a hugely diversified company with products ranging from light bulbs, aircraft engines, medical imaging equipment, kitchen and laundry appliances to water processing to media -- with its ownership of the NBC Network. GE has had a difficult time posting up growth numbers since CEO Jeff Immelt took the reins from the legendary Jack Welch some seven years ago. Welch was certainly in the right place at the right time and guided GE for a couple of decades as this company became one of America's largest corporations. Along the way, shareholders were amply rewarded by holding this stock.
The past few years have seen GE stall out and the shares have been a subpar performer. From early 2002 to present, the stock has been range-bound between $39 and $26 -- not exactly enamoring the long-term shareholders. Also, because of GE's massive presence in the S&P 500, institutions must own the shares. The pressure has mounted on Mr. Immelt to grow this companies earnings.
General Electric seems to be focused on the financial divisions to grow the earnings line more aggressively, and they are correct to do so. The GE Commercial Financial division has over $230 billion in assets and operates in more than 100 countries worldwide. There is leverage in this division that somehow the light bulb division will and cannot match. GE is acting more and more like a commercial bank, and with commercial bank margins. Using its mighty cash position and the currency of its shares, GE needs to acquire more assets in the commercial/consumer lending area if it expects to attain a solid 10% growth in revenues and earnings.
Continue reading General Electric to become the world's banker?