The first catastrophe bond of the quarter closed on opening day ... and it was a big one. State Farm's Merna Re II transaction was good for $350 million in risk capital, upsized from the earlier reported amount of $250 million. Though large, it doesn't compare to the previous Merna Re catastrophe bond, which set a record at $1.2 billion that remains to be beat.

Merna Re II was oversubscribed, but State Farm only wanted to place $350 million, Thomson Reuters reports (registration required). According to one investor who knew about the transaction, "The deal was oversubscribed at +365 basis points and after being upsized to $350 million." The investor added, "The initial price talk was 365 - 405 bp, but the deal got priced at 365 bp. However, Merna was a simple transaction and State Farm only wanted to place 350 million."

The first quarter of 2010 will probably go down in history as the worst ever for catastrophe losses.

According to global reinsurance broker Willis Re (WSH), the insurance industry recorded $16 billion in insured losses, from the Chile earthquake and Windstorm Xynthia in Europe, but the largest losses occurred in smaller markets, where it premium volumes aren't as large. Since the third and fourth quarters tend to be the most loss-prone of the year, a quarter that is normally quiet could set the stage for outsized losses.

The first quarter catastrophes weren't enough to push property-catastrophe reinsurance rates lower. Even though the first quarter was a busy one for catastrophe losses, particularly for global reinsurers, they weren't sufficient to change the market. As a result, the four regions renewing at April 1, 2010 -- the United States, Japan, Latin America and South Korea -- ranged from soft to controlled, according to the latest from Guy Carpenter, the reinsurance arm of Marsh & McLennan (MMC). This comes as no surprise, as indications throughout the run-up to the renewal pointed to an orderly process in which there would be enough capital to support the market's needs.

After weeks of speculation, the financial damage from the Chile earthquake and Windstorm Xynthia in Europe is starting to emerge. According to a recent report by Moody's, 16 global reinsurance companies have reported their net insured losses (before taxes) from the catastrophe event, and the damage has already reached $3.5 billion, increasing an already high tally. The firm expects these events to have a noticeable impact on first quarter results for the industry.

According to the report, the first quarter of 2010's results "will have many moving pieces, including the possibility of favorable loss reserve development." It continues, though, that "we would expect a number of reinsurers to post both operating and net losses for the quarter."

Merna Re, the largest catastrophe bond of all time, is set to mature in June, and State Farm is already putting together its replacement, the creatively named Merna Re II. The successor, planned for issuance in April, is said to be for $400 million in risk capital, though investor demand could push it as high as $700 million. This still pales in comparison to the $1.2 billion that the original brought in the door.

If State Farm is able to stimulate demand for Merna Re II, which would protect the company from non-California earthquake risk in the U.S., it will be third cat bond to come to market in 2010, which is expected to be a strong year for this form of risk transfer. The cat bond market fell silent after the near-collapse of American International Group (AIG) in September 2008 but was still the third busiest in terms of capital issued in the history of the cat bond market. Heading into 2009, prospects for the cat bond space seemed uncertain, but a robust fourth quarter eventually resulted in a year-over-year increase, driven mostly by repeat issuers.

Catastrophe modelers, insurers and reinsurers are still sorting out the damage from Windstorm Xynthia in Europe and the earthquake in Chile. Taking only the highest of high-end estimates, the damage from these two catastrophes could exceed $12 billion, resulting in fairly steep property-catastrophe losses long before hurricane season begins. With three more major property reinsurance renewals remaining for the year -- at April 1, June 1 (Florida) and July 1 -- there is plenty of time for the impact of these events to be absorbed into reinsurance pricing.

Despite the magnitude of the recent earthquake in Chile – in both physical and financial terms – it's unlikely to trigger a catastrophe bond payout. Catastrophe modeling firms AIR Worldwide and EQECAT offer a range of estimated insured losses of $2 billion to $8 billion, though the dust is still settling. According to insurance securitization blog Artemis.bm, "A similar quake in the right area of the U.S. or Japan would most certainly have triggered a cat bond."

Though there has been cat bond activity in Latin America, none have been issued in the region to cover earthquake risk. Low rates of insurance penetration are likely to keep what will already be a costly situation for insurers and reinsurers from being even worse -- i.e., because not much coverage has been written in Chile.

Insured losses from the magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Chile will only account for a small fraction of total economic losses. According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, insured losses will probably cross the $2 billion threshold, while total economic losses could exceed $15 million. EQECAT, another cat modeling firm, released a preliminary economic loss estimate of $10 million to $15 million.

The area affected by the earthquake, AIR says, has residential and commercial properties with an aggregate insured value of approximately $275 million. Residential insurance penetration could be as low as 10%, while the commercial insurance sector has far higher penetration, reported to be approximately 60%.

The earthquake that ripped through Chile left total economic damages estimated to range from $15 billion to $30 billion. The magnitude 8.8 quake impacted Santiago, where more than half the economic losses are said to have occurred, as well as the coastal area of Valparaiso and Vina del Mar, according to a report by catastrophe modeling firm EQECAT.

Based on the preliminary economic estimates, the impact of the disaster is equivalent to 10% to 15% of Chile's real GDP, and reconstruction costs are expected to be much higher than the stated losses, due to newer building standards that must be met. Damage to residential properties is expected to range from 55% to 65% of the total, with commercial damage accounting for 20% to 30% and industrial damage 15% to 20%, EQECAT says.

Insurance and reinsurance companies with risk in this region will be watching subsequent reports closely in order to gauge the impact on their portfolios.