MetLife (MET - option chain) stock is trading lower today along with most other insurance companies this morning after the cost to insurers related to Friday's earthquake in Japan was estimated to be between $15 to $35 billion. Prudential Financial (PRU) and AIG (AIG) are also down so far in today's trading. Even if these insurance companies are actually on solid footing financially with regard to their expected claims, I expect investors could be frightened for several months to come, which could keep share prices depressed. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on MET.

Continue reading Traders Exit Insurance Stocks to Avoid Earthquake Exposure

Traders Exit Insurance Stocks to Avoid Earthquake Exposure originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 14 Mar 2011 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

AIG (AIG) is a leading international insurance organization with operations in more than 130 countries. It provides life insurance, health insurance, auto and home insurance, retirement solutions and investment plans. It competes with other established insurance companies like MetLife (MET), The Hartford (HIG) and Prudential (PRU).

We have a price estimate of $30.36 on AIG's stock which is about 24% below the current market price.

Continue reading After Christchurch, Assessing AIG's Risk to Earthquakes

After Christchurch, Assessing AIG's Risk to Earthquakes originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Mar 2011 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Reinsurance Industry Approaches Record Levels

Reinsurance Industry Approaches Record Levels originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 08 Apr 2010 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Mexican Earthquake Won't Move Reinsurance Market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 Apr 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The first catastrophe bond of the quarter closed on opening day ... and it was a big one. State Farm's Merna Re II transaction was good for $350 million in risk capital, upsized from the earlier reported amount of $250 million. Though large, it doesn't compare to the previous Merna Re catastrophe bond, which set a record at $1.2 billion that remains to be beat.

Merna Re II was oversubscribed, but State Farm only wanted to place $350 million, Thomson Reuters reports (registration required). According to one investor who knew about the transaction, "The deal was oversubscribed at +365 basis points and after being upsized to $350 million." The investor added, "The initial price talk was 365 - 405 bp, but the deal got priced at 365 bp. However, Merna was a simple transaction and State Farm only wanted to place 350 million."

Continue reading State Farm Closes First Cat Bond of Q2

State Farm Closes First Cat Bond of Q2 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Apr 2010 12:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The first quarter of 2010 will probably go down in history as the worst ever for catastrophe losses.

According to global reinsurance broker Willis Re (WSH), the insurance industry recorded $16 billion in insured losses, from the Chile earthquake and Windstorm Xynthia in Europe, but the largest losses occurred in smaller markets, where it premium volumes aren't as large. Since the third and fourth quarters tend to be the most loss-prone of the year, a quarter that is normally quiet could set the stage for outsized losses.

Continue reading Q1 Catastrophes May Hit Earnings, Won't Change Market

Q1 Catastrophes May Hit Earnings, Won't Change Market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 Apr 2010 14:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The first quarter catastrophes weren't enough to push property-catastrophe reinsurance rates lower. Even though the first quarter was a busy one for catastrophe losses, particularly for global reinsurers, they weren't sufficient to change the market. As a result, the four regions renewing at April 1, 2010 -- the United States, Japan, Latin America and South Korea -- ranged from soft to controlled, according to the latest from Guy Carpenter, the reinsurance arm of Marsh & McLennan (MMC). This comes as no surprise, as indications throughout the run-up to the renewal pointed to an orderly process in which there would be enough capital to support the market's needs.

Continue reading Reinsurance Rates Fall Around the World

Reinsurance Rates Fall Around the World originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 Apr 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After weeks of speculation, the financial damage from the Chile earthquake and Windstorm Xynthia in Europe is starting to emerge. According to a recent report by Moody's, 16 global reinsurance companies have reported their net insured losses (before taxes) from the catastrophe event, and the damage has already reached $3.5 billion, increasing an already high tally. The firm expects these events to have a noticeable impact on first quarter results for the industry.

According to the report, the first quarter of 2010's results "will have many moving pieces, including the possibility of favorable loss reserve development." It continues, though, that "we would expect a number of reinsurers to post both operating and net losses for the quarter."

Continue reading Q1 Cats Likely to Have Reinsurance Earnings Impact

Q1 Cats Likely to Have Reinsurance Earnings Impact originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 20 Mar 2010 14:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Merna Re, the largest catastrophe bond of all time, is set to mature in June, and State Farm is already putting together its replacement, the creatively named Merna Re II. The successor, planned for issuance in April, is said to be for $400 million in risk capital, though investor demand could push it as high as $700 million. This still pales in comparison to the $1.2 billion that the original brought in the door.

If State Farm is able to stimulate demand for Merna Re II, which would protect the company from non-California earthquake risk in the U.S., it will be third cat bond to come to market in 2010, which is expected to be a strong year for this form of risk transfer. The cat bond market fell silent after the near-collapse of American International Group (AIG) in September 2008 but was still the third busiest in terms of capital issued in the history of the cat bond market. Heading into 2009, prospects for the cat bond space seemed uncertain, but a robust fourth quarter eventually resulted in a year-over-year increase, driven mostly by repeat issuers.

Continue reading State Farm Planning Monster Cat Bond

State Farm Planning Monster Cat Bond originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 19 Mar 2010 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading No Surprise: Chile Leads to Reinsurance Rate Increase Debate

No Surprise: Chile Leads to Reinsurance Rate Increase Debate originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Despite the magnitude of the recent earthquake in Chile - in both physical and financial terms - it's unlikely to trigger a catastrophe bond payout. Catastrophe modeling firms AIR Worldwide and EQECAT offer a range of estimated insured losses of $2 billion to $8 billion, though the dust is still settling. According to insurance securitization blog Artemis.bm, "A similar quake in the right area of the U.S. or Japan would most certainly have triggered a cat bond."

Though there has been cat bond activity in Latin America, none have been issued in the region to cover earthquake risk. Low rates of insurance penetration are likely to keep what will already be a costly situation for insurers and reinsurers from being even worse -- i.e., because not much coverage has been written in Chile.

Continue reading Cat Bond Impact from Chile Unlikely, but Future to Change

Cat Bond Impact from Chile Unlikely, but Future to Change originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 08 Mar 2010 11:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Insured losses from the magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Chile will only account for a small fraction of total economic losses. According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, insured losses will probably cross the $2 billion threshold, while total economic losses could exceed $15 million. EQECAT, another cat modeling firm, released a preliminary economic loss estimate of $10 million to $15 million.

The area affected by the earthquake, AIR says, has residential and commercial properties with an aggregate insured value of approximately $275 million. Residential insurance penetration could be as low as 10%, while the commercial insurance sector has far higher penetration, reported to be approximately 60%.

Continue reading Chile Quake Losses to Top $2 Billion

Chile Quake Losses to Top $2 Billion originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Mar 2010 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Should U.S., Like IMF, Extend Interest-Free Loan to Haiti?

Should U.S., Like IMF, Extend Interest-Free Loan to Haiti? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 22 Jan 2010 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Corning (NYSE: GLW - option chain) stock is falling today after the company said that an earthquake in Honshu yesterday disrupted production at its LCD glass manufacturing facility in Shizuoka, Japan. GLW expects the earthquake to reduce third-quarter revenue by up to $65 million. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on GLW.

This morning, GLW opened at $16.08. So far today the stock has hit a low of $15.80 and a high of $16.15. As of 11:25, GLW is trading at $15.94, down $0.44 (-2.7%). The chart for GLW looks neutral and S&P gives GLW a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Continue reading Corning (GLW) LCD production slowed by earthquake

Corning (GLW) LCD production slowed by earthquake originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After hitting a one-year high of $27.99 in December, the stock hit a one-year low of $18.05 in January. INTC opened this morning at $23.85. So far today the stock has hit a low of $23.76 and a high of $24.29. As of 12:15, INTC is trading at $24.16, up $0.40 (1.7%). The chart for INTC looks bullish and deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $21 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.7% return in just two months as long as INTC is above $21 at July expiration. Intel would have to fall by more than 13% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Little impact seen for Intel (INTC) from Chinese quake

Little impact seen for Intel (INTC) from Chinese quake originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 May 2008 14:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.