Once again it's ugly out there today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below 11,000 for the first time in two years, plunging over 2%. The rest of the U.S. stocks are not far behind with both the Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500 down over 2% as well. It's depressing. But you don't have to look far to see a nicer picture, you just have to look up: up north that is.
The Toronto Stock Exchange has fared much better in what has officially become a U.S. bear market. Over the past year, while the S&P 500 sank over 19%, the S&P/TSX Composite index dropped only 3.4%. Year-to-date, while the S&P 500 declined over 16%, the TSX was barely down 1%. And if you stay away from financials on the TSX, you'd fare even better.
How so, you ask, doesn't the Canadian economy closely follows the U.S.'s? It's mostly true as the U.S. is Canada's biggest trading partner and the Canadian economy is intertwined with that of the U.S. For example, some of the layoffs at GM and Ford plants have occurred in Ontario plants, and Canada's unemployment rate edged up to 6.2% in June due to a drop in full-time jobs.
The thing is, though, that the TSX is heavily weighted in mining and oil & gas companies, sectors that have fared better than techs and financials the past year or so. Getting exposure to the Canadian market is very easy since many stocks also trade on U.S. exchanges, the famous of all may be Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM). But there are others, and some of them, the U.S. investor may want to consider.
EnCana (NYSE: ECA) plans to separate into two companies, one focused on oil and the other natural-gas assets.
ECA closed at $85.93 Friday.
Friedman Billings Ramsey says: "The sum-of-the-parts DCF valuation is $92/share based on the company's most reserve data."
ECA over all option implied volatility of 35 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price fluctuations.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Energy companies, Regulated and Diversified Utilities and Tailsman Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Bernstein raised its 2008 oil forecast to $92.30/bbl, up 27%, and 2008 natural gas forecast to $8.30/mcf, up 7%. By 2012, the firm expects oil prices to be around $86/bbl and for gas to be $9.2/mcf. The firm upgraded Apache Corp (NYSE: APA) and XTO Energy (NYSE: XTO) to Outperform from Market Perform and EnCana (NYSE: ECA) to Market Perform from Underperform.
Goldman upgraded the Regulated and Diversified Utilities sub-sectors to Attractive from Neutral citing expected economic weakness, positive commodity exposure, and earnings growth. The firm upgraded American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP) to Buy from Neutral.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Tailsman Energy (NYSE: TLM) to Buy from Hold ahead of the company's annual meeting as they believe it will announce a new strategy of low risk resource development on existing acreage and that shares will react positively.
Timberland (NYSE: TBL) is recently up 87 cents to $16.64. The Wall Street Journal has frequently reported in the past that TBL is exploring a plan to sell itself. TBL December and January option implied volatility of 48 is near its 26-week average of 46 according to Track Data, suggesting flat price fluctuations.
EnCana (NYSE: ECA), a leading North American natural gas producer, will be holding its 2008 Outlook Meeting on December 12th. WTI Crude Futures are up 0.87% to $88.25 according to Bloomberg. ECA overall option implied volatility of 33 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.
Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
David Fried has developed an industry-leading reputation by focusing on companies buying back their shares. Here, his Buyback Letter looks at EnCana Corp. (NYSE: ECA).
"Canadian oil producer EnCana is among the largest holders of oil and gas resource lands in onshore North America, has an extensive drilling inventory with some 40,000 well locations, strong production and reserves growth, and robust project returns. It is focused on natural gas and in-situ oil sands.
"As the dangers of global warming have become more apparent, major energy companies are attempting to capture carbon dioxide and lock it away where it won't trap more heat. Industry leader EnCana has embarked on a pilot project to improve recovery rates from mature oil wells by using carbon dioxide.
"EnCana buys carbon dioxide produced by a power plant and ships it via pipeline to its Weyburn field in southern Saskatchewan. EnCana injects the gas into its oil field, where it reduces the viscosity of the oil, allowing the company to increase its recovery from the field.
What are the best energy investments for long-term investors? To answer this question, I surveyed 20 of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors to find their current favorite ideas in the energy sector.
Interestingly, the advisors see the best opportunities in areas well beyond traditional oil firms; indeed, no one included in this report chose a major integrated oil company. Rather, the advisors have shown a preference for various oil services sectors, non-oil energy sources, and developing alternative technologies.
Others chose companies that make specific products needed by the oil & gas industries such as NATCO Group Inc. (NYSE: NTG), which makes a wide range of oil & gas processing systems; Dresser-Rand Group Inc. (NYSE: DRC), a maker of control systems; Gardner Denver Inc. (NYSE: GDI), which makes compressor and fluid transfer systems; Tenaris (NYSE: TS), a maker of pipes and tublar products and Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB), the largest and most diversified of the oil services companies.
Got gold? In this edition of StockWatch: Between the Bells, Thomas Winmill of the Midas Funds outlines his strategy for broadening your portfolio with investments in precious metals and foreign energy concerns.
Echoing the sentiments of recent StockWatch contributors, Tom says we're currently in a bull market, and can expect growth to continue, thanks in part to recently lowered interest rates.
Tom recommends investors check into foreign equities -- he favors overseas energy companies like Hong Kong's CNOOC (NYSE: CEO), and EnCana Corporation (NYSE: ECA) of Canada. CNOOC manages China's offshore oil and gas exploration, and currently traded in the $160s, gushing up from around $100 in mid-August. EnCana is one of North America's largest oil and gas distributors, and trades about $20 higher than at the start of 2007.
Tom also urges investors to look beyond stocks and bonds, and suggests devoting between five and ten percent of your portfolio to gold and other precious metals.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: DaimlerChrysler (DCX), Omniture (OMTR), Convergys (CVG), Expedia (EXPE) and Baidu.com (BIDU) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
WestLB upgraded shares of DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DCX) to Buy from Add after the company raised the profit margin forecast for its Mercedes unit.
Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) was upgraded by Piper Jaffray to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect the company's strong revenue momentum and expanding margins.
Wedbush upgraded Convergys (NYSE: CVG) to Hold from Sell on valuation.
Citigroup raised shares of Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) and Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) to Buy from Hold on valuation...
OTHER UPGRADES:
Bear Stearns upgraded shares of Ryder System (NYSE: R) to Outperform from Underperform.
Lehman raised EnCana Corp (NYSE: ECA) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
USG Corp (NYSE: USG) was raised to Neutral from Underperform at Buckingham.
Morgan Keegan upgraded shares of Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) to Outperform from Market Perform.
Building Materials Holding Corp.(NYSE: BLG) -- implied volatility is Calm as BLG closes at 30-month low. BLG, a provider of professional residential services and building materials, closed at $13.41. BLG was frequently mentioned as a takeover target in previous years on a strong housing market and chatter that Home Depot's (NYSE: HD) ex-leader Bob Nardelli would purchase BLG. RHCO says this morning, "Potential for consolidation of Pro Dealers; When will it begin?" BLG June option implied volatility of 41 is below its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, indicating decreasing price risks.
Masco Corp.(NYSE: MAS) -- option implied volatility suggests non-directional Risk. MAS, a home improvement company, closed at $29.15. MAS over all option implied volatility of 27 is near its 26-week average of 25 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger risks.
Builders FirstSource (NASDAQ: BLDR) -- implied volatility suggests Flat Risk. BLDR, a supplier and manufacturer of structural and related building products for residential new construction, closed at $16.13. BLDR has a market cap of $571 million with long term debt of $318 million. BLDR reported March 2007 quarterly total revenue of $411 million. BLDR over all option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.
BlueLinx Holdings(NYSE: BXC) -- options suggest non-directional risk. BXC, a distributor of building products, closed at $10.88. BXC has a market cap of $339 million with long term debt of $522 million. BXC reported 2006 annual revenue of $4.8 billion. RHCO says, "BXC is maintaining its growth story despite a tough home-building market. The key element is growing its specialty business faster than the structural segment." BXC over all option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: General Motors Corp (GM), DaimlerChrysler (DCX), Mattel, Inc (MAT), Nvidia Corp (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Lehman upgraded shares of General Motors (NYSE: GM) to Equal-Weight from Underweight with a $30 target following the Chrysler sale as the firm believes GM will now take a tougher stance on its labor negotiations.
UBS upgraded shares of DaimlerChrysler AG (NYSE: DCX) to Buy from Neutral on the Chrysler sale and valuation. The broker believes the core Daimler unit looks inexpensive.
Mattel Inc (NYSE: MAT) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Matrix USA to reflect increasing sales growth.
ThinkEquity upgraded shares of Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) to Buy from Sell as the firm believes AMD could beat expectations for the next several quarters, likely affecting NVDA's chipset business and driving shares higher.
ThinkEquity upgraded shares of Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) to Buy from Sell citing strong Dell Inc (DELL) orders. Following Nvidia's comments on its quarterly report and channel checks, the firm now believes AMD is poised to beat expectations for the next several quarters and is truly a going concern...
OTHER UPGRADES:
Citigroup upgraded EnCana Corp (NYSE: ECA) to Hold from Sell.
Once again it's ugly out there today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below 11,000 for the first time in two years, plunging over 2%. The rest of the U.S. stocks are not far behind with both the Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500 down over 2% as well. It's depressing. But you don't have to look far to see a nicer picture, you just have to look up: up north that is.
EnCana
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Timberland
Building Materials Holding Corp.
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