With all the hysteria about global warming and the impact that it will have on the globe, I found it quite funny that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported yesterday that we just experienced the coldest winter since 2001. Hey Al Gore -- how can that be? I remember when I was growing up, in the mid- 1970's, Newsweek magazine had a cover story about the beginning of the ice age. Amazing what can happen in 25 years. We can go from an ice age, to global warming. Not bad.

According to the NOAA report:

"In the contiguous United States, the average winter temperature was 33.2°F (0.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century average – yet still ranks as the coolest since 2001. It was the 54th coolest winter since national records began in 1895. "

Why not ask the Chinese about global warming? They just experience a horribly snowy winter which has been a major cause of inflation. Extreme cold temperatures were the norm this winter. Over the last 150 years or so the global mean temperature has increased by 0.7 degrees Celsius. This small amount of warming is not unusual, and falls well within the range of variation for both warming a cooling.

A team of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) analysts keeps track of the price of oil going out four years. They are beginning to revise their forecasts upwards.

According to MarketWatch,"Tacking on $15 a barrel to all of its oil estimates, Goldman now sees average selling prices of $95 a barrel for 2008, $105 a barrel for 2009 and $110 a barrel for 2010. The high end of its range is now $135 a barrel -- but Goldman hinted that prices could be headed even higher." Obviously, the brokerage thinks oil will come down some, at least for a time, but the overall trend will stay up.

One of the analysts' biggest concerns is what will happen when the U.S. economy begins to grow rapidly again. Worldwide supplies will likely still be at current levels, but if a environmental disaster or political upheaval at one of the big oil producers cuts supply, Goldman predicts that prices could hit $150 to $200 a barrel.

It is hard to imagine with crude at that level that several large American industries would survive, at least with their current cost structures. Foremost among those would be the automotive and airline industries. Retail outlets would also be hurt by less frequent traffic caused by an attempt by customers to cut the miles traveled in their cars.

What could the government do if gas prices rose sharply from their current level of about $3 a gallon? It would cost states and the federal government billions of dollars, but they could eliminate the tax on gas consumption. Of course, they would probably have to raise taxes somewhere else to make up for that.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

The Wall Street Journal [subscription required] suggests that the 70% of economic growth that's driven by consumer spending is shifting into reverse. High, middle, and low income consumers are cutting back their spending. Lower and middle income consumers are selling their gold and using pawnshops to pay their bills as food and energy prices hit record levels. Investors should consider whether to sell their stocks or hold on and suffer.

High income consumers hit. Companies that serve higher income consumers are losing altitude, including:

• Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) said that its U.S. sales slumped during the holiday period.
• American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) warned of rising delinquencies and slowing spending among its cardholders.

Lower and middle income spending down. Less surprisingly, retailers to lower and middle income people are also suffering. These include:

Corporate profits have slowed in Q3, and U.S. economic growth most likely slowed in Q4 as well, but analysts say talk of a recession may be slightly premature.

Corporate profits fell to an annual rate of $19.3 billion in Q3 as domestic earnings dropped by $41.2 billion, according to U.S. Commerce Department data. The U.S. economy is being hurt by sluggish retail sales and write-downs in the subprime mortgage sector; the two have been offset by strong earnings abroad, but the domestic side may outdo the international side in Q4.

"The earnings recession has already arrived,'' said David Rosenberg, North America economist for Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) in New York told Bloomberg News. "We are going to see an economic recession in '08.''

The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index for November 2007 totaled 50.8, above the consensus estimate, but slower than October 2007's reading of 50.9. Any reading above 50 indicates economic expansion.