Stocks are expected to open modestly higher on Wall Street after a losing week last week. On Friday, stocks fell for the third straight day after reports on new-home sales and durable goods proved weaker than expected, leading investors to believe the economy has not yet emerged from the recession.

Stocks to watch today include pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), which agreed Monday to buy an 18% stake in European drug maker Crucell (NASDAQ: CRXL) for 301.8 million euros ($440 million), as part of a deal to develop flu vaccines.

Now that we've covered a few of the fundamental reasons the market is likely headed down in October, let's turn to some of the technical reasons.

First, the market is overbought by almost historical norms. And the rally, which began March 9, is having more and more trouble piercing technical ceilings.

Major resistance levels are 1,045, 1,075 and 1,110 on the S&P 500. And a major failure at one of these levels could be a tip-off that the slide has begun.

Next: Sign #7: An indiscriminate rally

Good news everyone! The Fed believes that the worst of the recession has passed. At least that is what its snapshot of economic conditions from yesterday showed. The data indicated that the "downward trend is showing signs of moderating" in five of the Fed's 12 regions.

Furthermore, "several" regions indicate that their expectations of future business activity have improved, but there will not be a "substantial increase" through the end of the year. In the last survey, "several regions" indicated signs of some stability at low levels. Taken in whole, the assessments of businesses on the "front lines" of the economy appear slightly better than in the last report, which was issued in mid-April.

To counterbalance all the green shoots talk, take a walk on the dark side.

Exhibit 1: Chain store sales declined 5% in May, a significant decline that did exclude giant Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). Guess Joe Consumer still doesn't feel up to shopping much. And Wal-Mart said it will stop reporting monthly sales figures, something that many economists and investors find troubling because that will mean they are losing a key indicator on consumer spending.

According to the Labor Department, initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 last week. Last week's advance pushed the total number of claims (669,000) to the highest level since October 1982.

Moreover, the 669,000 claims are up 72% from the same period last year. The four-week average of initial claims increased 6,500 to 656,750; hitting its highest point since October 1982.

For the week ending March 21, the number of people collecting state unemployment benefits increased 161,000 to 5.73 million. Not only is this level 96% higher than a year ago, but it is also a new record (should we sound bells and whistles?).

U.S. stock markets are headed for a lower opening as investors await data on jobless claims and housing starts in December. Investors are also awaiting the expected confirmation of Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary, despite his admission that he failed to pay some taxes.

The housing market is expected to show little signs of improvement. Bloomberg News says "U.S. builders probably broke ground in December on the fewest houses since record-keeping began as sales and credit dried up, economists said before a government report today. "

Many economists had predicted that the housing market would bottom out this year. Others, such as the pessimistic Nouriel Roubini of NYU, are arguing that the economy is in much worse shape. He expects losses from U.S. financial institutions will hit $3.6 billion.

Shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) may jump after the maker of the iPod and iPhone reported better-than-expected quarterly results yesterday. Investors had been spooked by concerns about Chief Executive Steve Jobs' health and weakening consumer spending. The enthusiasm for the company may be tempered by an SEC investigation into how the company disclosed information about Jobs' health.

Conversely, eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) posted disappointing results. Growth in the company's core auction business continues to slow as consumers show a preference for purchasing fixed-price items -- if they are in a mood to buy at all. The online auction giant, which already is in Wall Street's dog house, further angered investors by giving disappointing earnings guidance. Pressure may build on the company to boost its share price.

Because so much of the recent market volatility has been tied to announcements of employment numbers, consumer credit, and other such economic data, here's a look at the schedule for some of the economic data to be released the week of November 3, 2008.

• ISM manufacturing survey (Oct. 2008): Monday, 10:00 AM
• Construction spending (Sept. 2008): Monday, 10:00 AM
• Ford Motor Co. sales (Oct. 2008): Monday, 1:00 PM
• New motor vehicle sales (Oct. 2008): Monday, 4:00 PM
• Factory orders (Sept. 2008): Tuesday, 10:00 AM
• Challenger job cut announcement (Oct. 2008): Wednesday, 7:30 AM
• ISM nonmanufacturing survey (Oct. 2008): Wednesday, 10:00 AM
• Monster employment index (Oct. 2008): Thursday, 6:00 AM
• Preliminary productivity and costs (Q3): Thursday, 8:30 AM
• Public debt (Oct. 2008): Thursday, 3:00 PM
• Employment situation (Oct. 2008): Friday, 8:30 AM
• Wholesale trade (Sept. 2008): Friday, 10:00 AM
• Pending home sales (Sept. 2008): Friday, 10:00 AM
• Consumer credit outstanding (Sept. 2008): Friday, 3:00 PM

For a look at expectations for this coming week's earnings releases, see The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil.

Minyanville contributor Andrew Jeffery dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Put on those rose-colored glasses, it's time again for the Existing Home Sales data:

• September sales came in 5.5% higher than the previous month, at 5.18 million (annualized) compared to estimates of 4.95 million.
• Sales were 1.4% higher than last year -- the first year-over-year increase in three years.
• Inventory shrank to 9.9 months worth, from 10.6 months.
• Median home price dropped to $191,400, the lowest since April 2004.
• Distressed sales made up 35-40% of sales, with 80% of those going to owner-occupiers (higher than the usual 75%).

Per normal, the National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun is as optimistic as ever. He gets paid to obfuscate the truth.

Per normal, the National Association of Homebuilders chief economist David Seiders is as pessimistic as ever. The worse it is, the better chance his group gets on the government dole.

It's messy out there in housing land, but that's not exactly news. Keep in mind that the year-over-year numbers line up against this time last year, when credit markets first seized up and home buying all but evaporated for a couple months. Easy comparisons make for premature bottom call.

The U.S. market is driving the world -- whose stock indices plunged after yesterday's 345 Dow rout. But what does today bring? A chance for recovery or further devastation depending on whether reported economic statistics are better or worse than economists expect. Early reports are bad.

Here are the reports to watch, and what analysts had been expecting according to CNNMoney:

• Job cuts - Economists expected 75,000 lost jobs, but the 8:30am report was 84,000 lost jobs -- worse than expected.
• Unemployment rate - They had forecast the jobless rate to stay the same at 5.7%, but economists were wrong on this one too and unemployment rose to 6.1%.
• Hours worked - Economists anticipated the hour work week wouldn't change from July at 33.7, and they were right.
• Change in hourly earnings - Economists saw a 0.3% increase in the hourly wage, the same as July, but hourly wages rose 0.4%. Some may interpret this as inflationary pressure, but the increase is likely not enough to increase consumer spending either.

In general, these statistics suggest consumers are less able to spend money. Since initial numbers suggest things are worse than had been anticipated, stocks could plunge, causing policymakers to meet this weekend to try to hatch another plan to boost investor confidence for announcement on Sunday night.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

With a turn of the calendar page, we drift into the middle portion of the current quarter, but the earnings season rolls on. Among the many companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week are Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Whole Foods Market International (NASDAQ: WFMI). Let's take a look at which companies Wall Street analysts are expecting to be among the top earnings gainers and decliners this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.

• DRS Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DRS): $0.85 EPS (+95.3%) on revenue of $823.8 million (+12.0%)
• Integrys Energy Group Inc. (NYSE: TEG): $0.40 EPS (+70.0%) on revenue of $2.6 billion (+9.7%)
• Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC): $2.53 EPS (+64.4%) on revenue of $599.9 million (+75.4%)
• Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST): $1.51 EPS (+55.6%) on revenue of $456.1 million (+79.1%)
• Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN): $3.28 EPS (+48.5%) on revenue of $4.1 billion (+38.5%)
• CMS Energy Corp. (NYSE: CMS): $0.13 EPS (+46.2%) on revenue of $1.4 billion (+6.7%)
• Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG): $3.23 EPS (+43.0%) on revenue of $3.1 billion (+112.9%)
• Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE): $0.26 EPS (+38.5%) on revenue of $3.5 billion (+8.9%)
• Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB): $0.69 EPS (+37.7%) on revenue of $3.4 billion (+20.0%)
• Harris Corp. (NYSE: HRS): $0.99 EPS (+28.3%) on revenue of $1.4 billion (+18.0%)

As the second quarter earnings crunch begins in earnest this week, the bear market has investors jittery and prognosticators spinning out dire warnings. In the wake of mixed results from Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) kicking things off last week, here's a look at what Wall Street is expecting from many of the companies scheduled to report this coming week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting the following companies to report a rise in earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.

• Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE): $1.80 EPS (36.6%) on sales of $6.4 billion (+53.0%)
• Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG): $4.74 EPS (24.9%) on sales of $3.9 billion (+41.6%)
• Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK): 56 cents EPS (23.2%) on sales of $19.9 billion (+17.8%)
• CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX): 90 cents EPS (21.1%) on sales of $2.9 billion (+12.8%)
• Altera Corp. (NASDAQ: ALTR): 27 cents EPS (18.5%) on sales of $346.7 million (+8.4%)
• IBM (NYSE: IBM): $1.82 EPS (+17.6%) on sales of $25.9 billion (+9.0%)
• eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY): 41 cents EPS (17.1%) on sales of $2.2 billion (+18.0%)
• W.W. Grainger Inc. (NYSE: GWW): $1.46 EPS (17.1%) on sales of $1.7 billion (+8.0%)
• Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT): 47 cents EPS (17.0%) on sales of $15.7 billion (+17.0%)
• Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON): 94 cents EPS (17.0%) on sales of $9.2 billion (+7.9%)

In an odd turn of events, consumers actually increased their spending in January by 0.3%. What's strange about this is that sales during the December holiday shopping period actually declined 0.4% as "retailers suffered through their worst Christmas shopping season in five years."

Perhaps after feeling they had been conscientious spenders during the holiday season, shoppers have decided it was time to make up for it. True, there are concerns about the economy, but it seems consumers are either less worried about it or don't feel the effects yet. While the January jobs data has shown a slowdown, it was the first drop in four years and may not be felt overall yet.

So sure, some of the increase in the retail numbers was to be expected as consumers paid higher prices at the pump, but there was also strong demand for new cars as auto sales increased by 0.6% in January. And while sales excluding automobiles and gasoline were unchanged, clothing stores saw an increase of 1.4%, suggesting consumers are holding up.

Just when one thinks the U.S. economy has slowed to a crawl, up pops the unexpected: growth.

The U.S. economy unexpectedly accelerated in Q3 to an annualized growth rate of 3.9% the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday. The report took most economists and Wall Street analysts by surprise: most had expected a 3.1%-3.4% Q3 annualized growth rate.

Further, the Q3 3.9% rate was the fastest growth rate since Q1 2006, when the economy grew at a 4.8% annualized rate. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in Q2.

In addition, over the past 12 months the economy has grown at a 2.6% rate - - still below trend, but hardly anemic growth.

Surprising Q3 GDP Stat

"There's no way to slice it, other than to say it's a surprise," economist H. David Wang said in an interview with bloggingstocks.com. "Here the Fed [U.S. Federal Reserve] starts the second day of its interest rate meeting thinking the economy has slowed substantially, then they receive the Q3 data, which says it hasn't."

According to the National Retail Federation, there will be a buyer's strike this holiday season. Consumers are weary and low on cash. Fuel bills will be up and home values down. They want to buy those nice gifts for Christmas, but the cupboard is empty.

And so a survey of retailers says that holiday sales will only be up 3.7% this year, far short of the 7.2% improvement in 2006. "Shoppers will be a little more conservative with their spending as they become more aware of the softness in the economy," said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin in a statement, quoted by Reuters. That means that, if the consumer will be shopping at all, they will want a deal on price.

For the management at big retailers like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), and Target (NYSE: TGT), it is not exactly good news. After a generally weak year, they could have used some help.

Move over, Scrooge wants a place at the holiday table.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Gold dropped close to $20 an ounce in yesterday's trading as press reports increasingly circulated that the U.S. dollar/Euro exchange rate is unsustainable.

We blogged recently that Fed Chairman Bernanke has to test whether gold's recent price appreciation has to do with concerns over global inflation or investors seeking a safe haven as the dollar continued to weaken versus Euro.

While yesterday's appreciation versus the Euro was modest, it was a slight shift in direction and will likely get the support of both European and U.S. treasury secretaries. This is one trade I'd consider -- going long dollar and short the Euro.