This past week's data point of significance for investors has to be the revised, final, fourth quarter U.S. GDP report, which indicated the world's largest economy grew 3.1% in the quarter, as well as 2.9% for 2010.

In 2009, the U.S. economy contracted 2.6% during the Great Recession -- the worst downturn since the Great Depression -- and even though the final 3.1% fourth quarter stat was better than the 2.8% previously estimated fourth quarter growth rate, the growth pace still is not strong enough.

The most recent datapoint of significance for investors has to be the U.S. Federal Reserve's revised summary of economic projections.

The Fed now sees a stronger U.S. economy in 2011, with the world's largest and most technologically advanced economy expected to grow 3.4% to 3.9%, up from the 3.0% to 3.6% November projection.

The Fed also expects the U.S. economy to grow 3.5% to 4.4% in 2012 and 3.7% to 4.6% in 2013, compared to the November estimates of 3.6% to 4.5% and 3.5% to 4.6%, respectively.

In my new book, The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for an Era of Slow Growth and Deflation, I discuss nine reasons for slow U.S. economic growth and real GDP gains of about 2% annually in the long run.

1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.

This morning, the Commerce Department announced that the economy grew at a slower pace than previously thought in the April-to-June period. The gross domestic product grew at a 1.6% rate during the period, revised down from an initial estimate of 2.4%, and far slower than the 3.7% pace in the first quarter. Yet Wall Street actually sighed in relief because investors and economists had expected an even worse number.

Despite the euphoria on the Street over the not-as-bad-as-expected numbers, we are still faced with a stark reality as the economy has lost "significant momentum" lately. In fact, most believe that the third quarter will hold similarly weak growth.

It appears that the U.S. economy may finally be dragging itself out of the economic doldrums. At least, that is what the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product indicates. The GDP showed that the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5% annual pace in the third quarter, snapping a four-quarter contraction streak.

The growth is attributed to the massive government stimulus, which led to higher consumer spending. In addition, a reduction in inventories and robust government spending helped spur growth in the third quarter. But even excluding the influence of auto sales, production and inventories, the economy grew 1.9 percent last quarter.

Some of the jobs that have disappeared through this recession are gone forever, it seems. Even when the market turns, and even gains momentum, we could be stuck with a fairly weak employment market for a while. The recovery will take longer than we'd like, putting more distance between now and the top of the next market run. We've lost 7.2 million jobs since December 2007, and the predictions of some economists that we'll get them back by 2014 may actually seem optimistic.

Unemployment is at 9.8%, and it's expected to clear 10% early next year. Then, we have the specter of a jobless recovery with which to contend. "Full employment" is often considered to be an unemployment rate of 4% to 5%, but it could be a while before we get there. The last downturn, following the dotcom bust, resulted in a peak unemployment rate of 6.3% in 2003 ... and we're already well past that.

Why is the recovery going to be such a grind? Check out the four major reasons after the jump.

There are two opposing schools of thought on the current economic condition. One the one side are those who for see a "double dip" recession with the downturn continuing into next year. On the other side we have another group who see economic growth picking up rather than slacking off next year.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute has developed an index that "predicts" future growth (RPT-ECRI). The index is predicting record growth rate shooting to a hitting a record high. Its weekly leading index rose to 128.3 from 127.1 the prior week.

The Commerce Department released GDP numbers today for the second quarter, and showed that the economy shrank less than expected for the April - June period.

According to today's report, second quarter GDP figures dropped by 0.7%. Before the report, analysts had been expecting to see that GDP actually dropped by 1.1%, providing some fresh evidence that the economy will probably start growing again during the second half of the year.

It appears that a majority of economists believe that the current recession in the United States is going to end this year. The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) will release today a survey that reflects this belief and is in line with a forecast from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and others.

According to the survey, 74% of the forecasters believe the recession will end in the third quarter, with 19% pegging the fourth quarter as the final quarter for the recession. The remaining 7% believe the first quarter of 2010 will be the recession's swan song.

Congressional Democrats, including Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va, are pushing for the enactment of a second economic stimulus bill worth $24 billion, including a $6 billion lifeline for the beleaguered auto industry. Odds of it passing in a presidential election year are slim to none.

Democrats, though, are giving the people what they want. Regardless of whether it's a good idea or not, it's fantastic politics. Democrats can prove to voters, who are fed up with the lousy economy, that they "feel their pain," leaving aside the debate of whether it's needed.

That explains why House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., says that the second stimulus bill will need to have bipartisan support -- as the first one got -- because it is vital for the economy. Like the first economic stimulus plan, Byrd's bill will be temporary, targeted and provide disaster relief, according to CQ Politics.com.

"The Speaker earlier had vowed to enact a second measure, totaling at least $50 billion, before Congress leaves this year," the website says. "But the president and congressional Republicans have been less enthusiastic about the idea, repeatedly arguing that lawmakers should wait to assess the impact of the tax rebates and other incentives enacted in February."

The New York Times reports that the European Central Bank raised its equivalent of the Fed Funds rate to 4.25%. Meanwhile, Bernanke's economic wrecking crew has kept the U.S. rate at 2%. Investors will sell dollars and buy Euros. That will cause the dollar to lose even more of the 72% it's lost since January 2001. But none of this is really happening because AFP reports that President George Bush has declared that "we're strong dollar people."

The key to U.S. policy is repeated denials of the obvious -- which is that U.S. policy is consistently intended to weaken the dollar. The reason is that a weak dollar makes the goods of big U.S. corporate exporters relatively cheap when they sell overseas. And of course, since oil is traded in dollars, a weak one causes the price of oil to spike. It now resides at a comfortable $146 a barrel, up 508% since January 2001.

But Reuters reports that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson -- who last year brought us "subprime is contained" -- now says that the weak dollar is not to blame for high oil prices. With apologies to the old E.F. Hutton advertisements -- which said "When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen" -- when Hank Paulson talks, people snicker.

The U.S. economy will most likely exit from a recession by the end of September 2008, according to a new survey of business economists by the National Association for Business Economics.

A majority of economists expect gradual growth to return by the end of next quarter, Q3 2008, as credit market conditions improve, the NABE said. More than 60% of the economists surveyed predicted that businesses and consumers will find it easier to borrow in the second half of 2008.

However, the percentage of economists who said the United States economy is in or near a recession increased to 56% in April 2008 from 45% in February 2008.

The NABE panel expects little economic growth in the first half of 2008, but anticipates a significant pickup in the second half. For 2009, the NABE expects GDP to increase 2.7%.

Economists: optimism nudges higher

Economist Peter Dawson, who did not participate in the NABE survey, told BloggingStocks Monday the NABE results suggest economists are beginning to become somewhat more optimistic about the U.S. economy's prospects, particularly for 2009. "Recent data has been encouraging regarding credit market conditions and export data, but I want to caution investors that we still have major housing and energy price headwinds," Dawson said. "But if the data continue to point to an economic bottoming this quarter, most would interpret that as on-track, that things are moving in the right direction concerning the economy."

Dawson added that he still expects the U.S. economy to register negative growth -- contract by 0.7% and 0.4% -- in Q2 and Q3 2008, respectively, before growth resumes in Q4 2008.

Economic forecasters and analysts are beginning to give in to recession language, with 51% of respondents to a poll conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) indicating they believe that a stalled economy is where we may be headed. An Associated Press report indicates that 70% of all survey respondents feel the economy shall grow 3% or less in the first half of this year. A whopping 30% of respondents indicated they feel the economy shall actually contract.

Associated Press stated, "The majority of forecasters polled -- 51 percent -- thought the economic growth during the first half of this year would clock in between zero and 1 percent, which would still mark a feeble showing. Sixteen percent pegged growth in the first half at between 1 and 2 percent, while only three percent put it at between 2 and 3 percent."

The question is whether or not consumers and their discretionary incomes shall tip the economic balance into classically defined recession. While inflation has a greater portion of personal incomes being utilized for the necessities of life, these days it's generally the optional "extras" that stimulate economic growth numbers. Recreational electronics, home entertainment devices, and items of fad and fashion make up the bulk of growth industries today. To what extent will they bear up and in what measure will they support domestic economy?

Your guess is as good as mine...

Gary Sattler is a freelance blogger and former sole proprietor of a thriving retail establishment.

The euro hit an all-time of $1.5915 versus the dollar Thursday, only to become subject to an increasingly rare event in currency markets these days - - a dollar rally.

That's right: you read correctly. The dollar rallied, getting off the deck, as it were, from its record-low versus the euro to gain more than 1 cent for the day to trade at $1.5741 late Thursday.

Trading is likely to be calm to inert heading into Friday, due to the G-7 meeting in Washington of the world's major central bankers and finance ministers.

What inspired the dollar's rally? Independent currency trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks the currency markets interpreted Thursday's lower-than-expected 357,000 U.S. initial weekly unemployment claims as a strong point for the ailing U.S. economy. That fact, combined with the belief that the previous week's claims may have been inflated, due to the earlier Easter holiday, sent traders into buy-dollar mode.

First the good news: Congressional Democrats are talking up the idea of a second fiscal stimulus package to help jump start the U.S. economy.

Now the bad news: Congressional Democrats are talking up the idea of a second fiscal stimulus package to help jump start the U.S. economy.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, said she would raise the prospect of a second stimulus bill when she and other Congressional leaders meet with President Bush this week, CNN reported Monday.

Anemic U.S. economy

Speaker Pelosi did not provide specifics but said March 2008's "disturbing unemployment numbers" which indicated the nation's economy lost 80,000 jobs "compels the President to work with Congress on a second stimulus package to get our economy back on track, create jobs, and speed assistance to families struggling to make ends meet," CNN said.

On Monday, the Bush Administration said it was too soon to talk about the need for a second economic stimulus package because the first one had not been fully implemented yet, Reuters reported.