This past week's data point of significance for investors has to be the revised, final, fourth quarter U.S. GDP report, which indicated the world's largest economy grew 3.1% in the quarter, as well as 2.9% for 2010.

In 2009, the U.S. economy contracted 2.6% during the Great Recession -- the worst downturn since the Great Depression -- and even though the final 3.1% fourth quarter stat was better than the 2.8% previously estimated fourth quarter growth rate, the growth pace still is not strong enough.

Continue reading Inadequate Q4 U.S. GDP Growth Points to Fed's Extension of QE2

Inadequate Q4 U.S. GDP Growth Points to Fed's Extension of QE2 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 27 Mar 2011 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The most recent datapoint of significance for investors has to be the U.S. Federal Reserve's revised summary of economic projections.

The Fed now sees a stronger U.S. economy in 2011, with the world's largest and most technologically advanced economy expected to grow 3.4% to 3.9%, up from the 3.0% to 3.6% November projection.

The Fed also expects the U.S. economy to grow 3.5% to 4.4% in 2012 and 3.7% to 4.6% in 2013, compared to the November estimates of 3.6% to 4.5% and 3.5% to 4.6%, respectively.

Continue reading Ray of Light: Fed Sees Adequate U.S. GDP Growth for 2011-2013

Ray of Light: Fed Sees Adequate U.S. GDP Growth for 2011-2013 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 26 Feb 2011 12:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In my new book, The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for an Era of Slow Growth and Deflation, I discuss nine reasons for slow U.S. economic growth and real GDP gains of about 2% annually in the long run.

1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.

Continue reading Nine Reasons for Slow U.S. Economic Growth

Nine Reasons for Slow U.S. Economic Growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 10 Dec 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This morning, the Commerce Department announced that the economy grew at a slower pace than previously thought in the April-to-June period. The gross domestic product grew at a 1.6% rate during the period, revised down from an initial estimate of 2.4%, and far slower than the 3.7% pace in the first quarter. Yet Wall Street actually sighed in relief because investors and economists had expected an even worse number.

Despite the euphoria on the Street over the not-as-bad-as-expected numbers, we are still faced with a stark reality as the economy has lost "significant momentum" lately. In fact, most believe that the third quarter will hold similarly weak growth.

Continue reading GDP for Second Quarter Revised Lower, Down to 1.6%

GDP for Second Quarter Revised Lower, Down to 1.6% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Aug 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Third-quarter GDP shows growth -- is the recession over?

Third-quarter GDP shows growth -- is the recession over? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Some of the jobs that have disappeared through this recession are gone forever, it seems. Even when the market turns, and even gains momentum, we could be stuck with a fairly weak employment market for a while. The recovery will take longer than we'd like, putting more distance between now and the top of the next market run. We've lost 7.2 million jobs since December 2007, and the predictions of some economists that we'll get them back by 2014 may actually seem optimistic.

Why is the recovery going to be such a grind? Check out the four major reasons after the jump.

Continue reading Four reasons we're stuck with high unemployment for a while

Four reasons we're stuck with high unemployment for a while originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There are two opposing schools of thought on the current economic condition. One the one side are those who for see a "double dip" recession with the downturn continuing into next year. On the other side we have another group who see economic growth picking up rather than slacking off next year.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute has developed an index that "predicts" future growth (RPT-ECRI). The index is predicting record growth rate shooting to a hitting a record high. Its weekly leading index rose to 128.3 from 127.1 the prior week.

Continue reading Leading index predicts record U.S. growth

Leading index predicts record U.S. growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Economy shrinks less than expected

Economy shrinks less than expected originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 30 Sep 2009 15:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Will the recession end in 2009?

Will the recession end in 2009? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 27 May 2009 11:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"The Speaker earlier had vowed to enact a second measure, totaling at least $50 billion, before Congress leaves this year," the website says. "But the president and congressional Republicans have been less enthusiastic about the idea, repeatedly arguing that lawmakers should wait to assess the impact of the tax rebates and other incentives enacted in February."

Continue reading Do we need a second economic stimulus bill?

Do we need a second economic stimulus bill? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 01 Aug 2008 12:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The New York Times reports that the European Central Bank raised its equivalent of the Fed Funds rate to 4.25%. Meanwhile, Bernanke's economic wrecking crew has kept the U.S. rate at 2%. Investors will sell dollars and buy Euros. That will cause the dollar to lose even more of the 72% it's lost since January 2001. But none of this is really happening because AFP reports that President George Bush has declared that "we're strong dollar people."

The key to U.S. policy is repeated denials of the obvious -- which is that U.S. policy is consistently intended to weaken the dollar. The reason is that a weak dollar makes the goods of big U.S. corporate exporters relatively cheap when they sell overseas. And of course, since oil is traded in dollars, a weak one causes the price of oil to spike. It now resides at a comfortable $146 a barrel, up 508% since January 2001.

But Reuters reports that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson -- who last year brought us "subprime is contained" -- now says that the weak dollar is not to blame for high oil prices. With apologies to the old E.F. Hutton advertisements -- which said "When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen" -- when Hank Paulson talks, people snicker.

Continue reading Why the dollar will keep falling

Why the dollar will keep falling originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 Jul 2008 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Economists survey forecasts U.S. recession to end by October 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 19 May 2008 10:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Economic forecasters give in to recession talk originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:46:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Euro hits record $1.59 versus dollar, then falters

Euro hits record $1.59 versus dollar, then falters originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 Apr 2008 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Congressional Democrats talk up second economic stimulus package

Congressional Democrats talk up second economic stimulus package originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 08 Apr 2008 10:23:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Is the U.S. entering a conventional, or unconventional, recession?

Is the U.S. entering a conventional, or unconventional, recession? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Apr 2008 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With all the hysteria about global warming and the impact that it will have on the globe, I found it quite funny that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported yesterday that we just experienced the coldest winter since 2001. Hey Al Gore -- how can that be? I remember when I was growing up, in the mid- 1970's, Newsweek magazine had a cover story about the beginning of the ice age. Amazing what can happen in 25 years. We can go from an ice age, to global warming. Not bad.

According to the NOAA report:

"In the contiguous United States, the average winter temperature was 33.2°F (0.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century average - yet still ranks as the coolest since 2001. It was the 54th coolest winter since national records began in 1895. "

Why not ask the Chinese about global warming? They just experience a horribly snowy winter which has been a major cause of inflation. Extreme cold temperatures were the norm this winter. Over the last 150 years or so the global mean temperature has increased by 0.7 degrees Celsius. This small amount of warming is not unusual, and falls well within the range of variation for both warming a cooling.

Continue reading What about global cooling?

What about global cooling? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 14 Mar 2008 20:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A team of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) analysts keeps track of the price of oil going out four years. They are beginning to revise their forecasts upwards.

According to MarketWatch,"Tacking on $15 a barrel to all of its oil estimates, Goldman now sees average selling prices of $95 a barrel for 2008, $105 a barrel for 2009 and $110 a barrel for 2010. The high end of its range is now $135 a barrel -- but Goldman hinted that prices could be headed even higher." Obviously, the brokerage thinks oil will come down some, at least for a time, but the overall trend will stay up.

One of the analysts' biggest concerns is what will happen when the U.S. economy begins to grow rapidly again. Worldwide supplies will likely still be at current levels, but if a environmental disaster or political upheaval at one of the big oil producers cuts supply, Goldman predicts that prices could hit $150 to $200 a barrel.

It is hard to imagine with crude at that level that several large American industries would survive, at least with their current cost structures. Foremost among those would be the automotive and airline industries. Retail outlets would also be hurt by less frequent traffic caused by an attempt by customers to cut the miles traveled in their cars.

What could the government do if gas prices rose sharply from their current level of about $3 a gallon? It would cost states and the federal government billions of dollars, but they could eliminate the tax on gas consumption. Of course, they would probably have to raise taxes somewhere else to make up for that.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Goldman Sachs talks about $200 oil originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 08 Mar 2008 05:41:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading The oil syndrome

The oil syndrome originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 20 Feb 2008 19:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading As credit card delinquencies rise, consumers rein-in spending

As credit card delinquencies rise, consumers rein-in spending originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 08 Feb 2008 12:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.