Thursday morning, the Commerce Department announced that orders for U.S.-made durable goods dropped during November, falling 1.3% for the month. The drop was larger than the expected drop of 0.5%.

Taking transportation out of the picture, new orders increased by 2.4%, showing that the major drag on the data was transportation-equipment orders. Core durable-goods orders (which exclude defense and aircraft) increased 2.6%, a far better performance than the 3.6% decline in October. Analysts at Barclay's Capital called for a gain in core capital goods that reflect, "further expansion in the manufacturing sector."

Continue reading Durable Goods Orders Drop in November

Durable Goods Orders Drop in November originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 23 Dec 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This recession is very different from any since the Depression. Normal events just aren't happening, ones like a rebound in housing prices, shorter unemployment periods, interest rates bouncing back. The severity of the economic slowdown continues to grind on, and investors who thought along the lines of a "normal" recovery have been disappointed so far as there's nothing normal happening.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Unconventional Thinking Needed

Comfort Zone Investing: Unconventional Thinking Needed originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 31 Jul 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

No one thinks good times are here again. Unemployment is too high and will most likely get worse before everyone agrees that the recession is over. (If you're one of the many jobless who have been looking for months for a job, this is a depression, not a recession.)

No, times aren't good yet. But there are signs, both anecdotal and data driven, that show the worst is most likely over. Many of these signs aren't very visible. They don't make headlines, yet they do give credence to the idea that consumers are starting to spend, that the economy has stopped its downward spiral.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Small signs of a recovery

Comfort Zone Investing: Small signs of a recovery originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 03 Oct 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

On Monday the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 200 points before closing a little better. No real reason for it. Pundits suggested the drop in commodity prices (oil and gold were down a little, not enough to comment on) were the reason for the dip, suggesting the economy may not be as robust nor inflation as big a problem as thought on the Friday before.

But here's the real scoop: the market has rallied well beyond a level where economic numbers justify.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Stops and starts ... partly steam ahead!

Comfort Zone Investing: Stops and starts ... partly steam ahead! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 20 Jun 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Playboy's economic indicator: The Playmate Index

Playboy's economic indicator: The Playmate Index originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 Nov 2008 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Can't tell a leading from a lagging economic indicator to save your life? Don't understand why people get so excited about a book whose cover is, after all, beige? Want to know the latest information on business confidence in Japan but don't know who to ask? Bernard Baumohl's The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities is the book for you.

Surprisingly accessible, written not at all in the style of "the dismal science," Secrets of Economic Indicators provides a survey of the most influential economic indicators for both domestic and major international markets, including Germany, Japan, China, India and Brazil.

For the U.S., economic indicators are organized topically into categories covering employment, consumer spending, national outputs, housing and construction, the Federal Reserve, foreign trade and prices. Each category contains numerous entries for relevant economic indicators. As an example of a national output indicator, Baumohl includes an entry for Durable Goods Orders. This entry lists other names for the economic indicator, its relationship to overall market activity, a website where the latest information is available, the schedule for regular releases and how often, as well as what agency or department of the government is responsible for providing the information. Baumohl also provides a narrative description of the indicator, why it is important, how the indicator is computed based on what information, and what the last few figures have been for the indicator, organized in handy chart format.

Entries for economic indicators that are leading, as distinct from lagging, include a section on how this indicator provides clues for shorter and longer term economic activity, a very helpful piece of information for all types of investors.

Book review: Bernard Baumohl's 'The Secrets of Economic Indicators' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Oct 2007 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Highlighting the disparity between government statistics and the real world, orders for durable goods fell an estimated 2.8% in May, led by reductions in the orders for aircraft, metals and machinery. It is speculated that some of the decline is due to a productivity spike in April which has temporarily raised inventories in an economy which is entering a cooling phase. Adding to the statistical decline is a reduction in steel orders which had surged through the first quarter as manufacturing interests bolstered their inventories of raw materials both domestically and abroad.

Economists are still forecasting higher levels of corporate investment and from what I see, that's true. Companies are looking to renew and refine their interior operations and are aggressively seeking improvements to revenue flow. The investments to that end however are falling into the categories of infrastructure, R& D and sales rather than increased output capacity, leading to reductions in workforce, not increases in production machinery. Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts stated, "Capital spending is not moving forward with the strength we had hoped.''

Continue reading Industrial output cooling as durable goods lose a little ground

Industrial output cooling as durable goods lose a little ground originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Jun 2007 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The cover story of the current issue of Fortune, which shares a parent company, Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), with this blog, sounds the trumpets -- proclaiming that Business is back!

I've had the pleasure of working with the author of this article, Geoff Colvin, who interviewed me once on the now-defunct Wall $treet Week with Fortune in 2004. Colvin also quoted me in this article on The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD). So I know I would enjoy debating him on the premise of his article which is that after six years of a lousy reputation in the wake of the dot-com collapse and Enron/WorldCom, business is now enjoying a resurgence in public opinion.

But Colvin's premise strikes me more as wishful thinking than persuasive evidence. With business magazine advertising declining -- Fortune's dropped 9.6% in the first quarter -- this advertiser-friendly article could help bring in more revenue. He bases his conclusion on three pillars:

Continue reading Is business back?

Is business back? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 May 2007 10:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After a long walk on the Venice Beach boardwalk (CA) yesterday I may have gotten notice of things to come. Speaking to several artists on the beach, I learned that they are having a tough summer. Business is noticeably slower this summer than last. They speculate that fuel prices and fewer people wanting to fly has reduced tourism and their customer base.

I have no way of knowing if there is a direct correlation but I can report that the boardwalk was packed and parking was hard to find. Based on my observations, it does not seem like a viable explanation. How could the beach be as crowded as ever and business be slower?

The answer is simple, although unscientific: Consumer priorities and discretionary spending have been altered. The number of people visiting the boardwalk may not be appreciably different. People still love the beach, the sites, the sounds and the people-watching. However, after spending more on gas to get there, ($3.15 to $3.45 per gallon) and paying more for parking ($5 if you walk a distance, to $15) they have less in their pockets. They buy hot dogs, pizza, ice cream, beer, and t-shirts. They have less money to spend on art, jewelery, and novelties.

Why Venice Beach as an indicator?

Continue reading Venice Beach as economic indicator: Consumer spending slows

Venice Beach as economic indicator: Consumer spending slows originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 21 Aug 2006 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.