Continue reading Amazing video of Peter Schiff precisely calling the market

Amazing video of Peter Schiff precisely calling the market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"The markets seemed on the verge of a major sea change," says economist David Smith. In his Cyclical Investing Quarterly, he offers a fascinating review of his concerns for the risks that lie ahead.

"Recent economic data provides considerable foundation for Main Street fears and little support for Wall Street hopes.

"Two of the economy's mainstays, housing and autos, continue to tank and consumers are being squeezed between falling real incomes and rising cost of living - notably in energy and food, the two components eliminated from the 'core' inflation indices by those who claim inflation is 'under control.'

"The consequences of these economic stresses can be seen in falling consumer confidence, weak consumer spending, rising bankruptcies among retailers and defaults among un-creditworthy borrowers.

"The knock-on effects include a global crisis in the financial sector, a pullback in U.S. business spending,
mounting layoffs and an uptrend in unemployment, all of which, in my view, pretty much puts the nail in the coffin of the Goldilocks scenario.

"This view is seconded by chief executive officers in the financial-services industry, who placed the likelihood of a recession at 88%, with one in three putting the odds at 100%.

Continue reading Economist warns, 'There is no free lunch'

Economist warns, 'There is no free lunch' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 May 2008 11:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Market historian, money manager and newsletter editor, Jim Stack avoids short-term forecasting but has an uncanny record of being properly positioned for major market turns (gaining 81% since 12/99 versus a gain of 13.9% for the S&P over the same period).

Here, the editor of InvesTech Market Analyst assesses the odds for a bear market and/or a recession, looking at various metrics from housing and consumer confidence to interest rates and the Presidential cycle.

"Consumer Confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, has fallen over 24 points in just 4 months - a precipitous decline matched only by past recessions, or in the first year coming out of recession. Housing and automobile sales are clearly in a recession, but other sectors of the economy still seem very resilient .

"Unemployment is now running at 5%, up 0.6% pts. from a 5-year low of 4.4% early last year. It doesn't take an economics major to look back on 60 years of unemployment history and recognize this is not good news for the U.S. economy.

"We have review all periods when the Unemployment Rate has risen 0.6% pts. from a 2-year low. In 6 out of 9 instances, the economy was already in recession. In the remaining 3, a recession wasn't far off. Are these the kind of odds you want to bet against, as an investor?

Continue reading Bear markets and recessions: An historical perspective

Bear markets and recessions: An historical perspective originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Feb 2008 09:31:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The New York Times asked six economists whether the U.S. is in a recession. Their conclusion seems to be that they don't know whether we're in a recession but that the housing market slowdown and the related debt bomb could lead us there.

I'm not an economist but I played one in 2004. That's when I worked with the John Kerry campaign and had a chance to meet one of the economists -- Jason Furman -- whose op-ed appeared Sunday. I also appeared opposite another of the contributing economists, Kevin Hassett, in an interview on Wall $treet Week with Fortune the day after the Democratic National Convention.

I don't know what 2008 will bring. But I think it depends on two factors: whether the Bush administration decides to take any radical policy moves or just twiddles its thumbs until its term expires, and how deep and wide the global impact of the housing market slump and the related credit market freeze will be. To address the analysis behind this forecast, here are my thoughts on five key questions:

Continue reading Tighten your belt for a rocky 2008

Tighten your belt for a rocky 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 Dec 2007 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) says that the odds of a recession in the U.S. have moved from 30% to a range of 40% to 45%. But economists at the investment bank "now expect the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates to 3% by mid-2008, down from its earlier forecast of 4%," according to MarketWatch.

Over at the U.S. Conference of Mayors things look a little different. They commissioned a study by Global Insight Inc., which suggested that the value of U.S. housing will fall $1.2 trillion next year, and that foreclosures could hit 1.4 million. But "Global Insight predicted that the economy would grow at a 1.9% rate in 2008," writes The Wall Street Journal. The firm even expects modest job growth.

Between the two opinions there appears to be little beyond smoke and confusion. As the year wears on and the stock market falls, the number of views about the 2008 economy grows, with little consensus.

That leaves investors to ponder the most important factor in most of the studies. Will housing problems sink the rest of the economy, or can the damage be isolated to those consumers who have problems directly related to their homes?

No one can answer that. No matter who issues them, the opinions are only a guess.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Conflicting views of the economy increase originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 Nov 2007 10:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.