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Ray of Light: March's Jobs Gain Is More Evidence of Healing Labor Market

job growthThis past week's data point of significance for investors has to be March's job report, which indicated the U.S. economy created a better-than-expected 216,000 jobs, the U.S. Labor Department said.

Also, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 8.8% from 8.9%. A Bloomberg survey had expected the economy to create 200,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 8.9%. Further, job creation totals for February and January were revised higher: February to 194,000 from the initially estimated 192,000 gain; January to 68,000 from 63,000.

Continue reading Ray of Light: March's Jobs Gain Is More Evidence of Healing Labor Market

Is IBM Headed to $200 and Beyond?

The shares of International Business Machines (IBM), which I first wrote about in February 2009 at a price of $91.51, have continued to move higher -- they appear to be trending toward $200 -- and, not surprisingly, I still like them.

IBM's demonstrated business model should generate a 2011 revenue increase of 4% to 5% amid the global economic recovery, and a 5% to 7% revenue increase in 2012.

Continue reading Is IBM Headed to $200 and Beyond?

Inadequate Q4 U.S. GDP Growth Points to Fed's Extension of QE2

Federal ReserveThis past week's data point of significance for investors has to be the revised, final, fourth quarter U.S. GDP report, which indicated the world's largest economy grew 3.1% in the quarter, as well as 2.9% for 2010.

In 2009, the U.S. economy contracted 2.6% during the Great Recession -- the worst downturn since the Great Depression -- and even though the final 3.1% fourth quarter stat was better than the 2.8% previously estimated fourth quarter growth rate, the growth pace still is not strong enough.

Continue reading Inadequate Q4 U.S. GDP Growth Points to Fed's Extension of QE2

Ray of Light: U.S. Private Sector Hiring Increases

private sector hiringThis past week's data point of significance for investors has to be the February nonfarm payroll report by the U.S. Department of Labor, which indicated that the U.S. economy created 192,000 jobs last month -- roughly in-line with the consensus estimate.

The good news was complemented by the fact that January's job gain was revised up to 63,000 from 36,000 and December's to 152,000 from 121,000. January's low job tally was probably skewed lower by the winter blizzards and storms that hit the Northeast and Midwest; hence, it's safe to say that the economy is creating jobs. What it needs now is sustained demand to drive GDP growth, which will lead to stronger job growth.

Continue reading Ray of Light: U.S. Private Sector Hiring Increases

Ray of Light: Fed Sees Adequate U.S. GDP Growth for 2011-2013

Federal ReserveThe most recent datapoint of significance for investors has to be the U.S. Federal Reserve's revised summary of economic projections.

The Fed now sees a stronger U.S. economy in 2011, with the world's largest and most technologically advanced economy expected to grow 3.4% to 3.9%, up from the 3.0% to 3.6% November projection.

The Fed also expects the U.S. economy to grow 3.5% to 4.4% in 2012 and 3.7% to 4.6% in 2013, compared to the November estimates of 3.6% to 4.5% and 3.5% to 4.6%, respectively.

Continue reading Ray of Light: Fed Sees Adequate U.S. GDP Growth for 2011-2013

Kohl's: Retail Sector Survivor and Winner

Kohl's (KSS) storeRetailer Kohl's Corp. (KSS) shares have retreated slightly since hitting a high near $58, but just look on that dip as an opportunity to scoop up shares.

Kohl's is a retail sector winner amid the most challenging economic conditions for retailers in decades.

Kohl's same-store sales will likely increase about 5% to 6% in this year, FY2012, along with decent traffic. Kohl's also plans to open about 40 new stores. How many other retail chains are opening stores in a big way in 2011? Very few.

Continue reading Kohl's: Retail Sector Survivor and Winner

Tell-Tale Stat: Buffett's Berkshire Divests Bank of America, Nike Stakes

Warren BuffettThe past week's data-point-of-consequence for investors had to be investment decisions by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A).

Buffett ended positions in several stocks in the fourth quarter, including the Bank of America (BAC), Nike (NKE), Fiserv (FISV), Becton Dickinson (BDX), Comcast Corp. (CMCSA), Lowe's Co.s (LOW), Nalco (NLC) and Nestle (NSRGY), according to a filing, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Berkshire added to a holding of only one stock in the fourth quarter: Wells Fargo (WFC).

Continue reading Tell-Tale Stat: Buffett's Berkshire Divests Bank of America, Nike Stakes

Comfort Zone Investing: Ride the Recovery with These Three Stocks

comfort zone investing - 3 stocks - 3 runners on a trackIf you think the economic recovery is just beginning, then these three stocks will benefit. They've just released their earnings so you can see how they've fared even in these tough times. They all share positive attributes: plenty of cash, growing sales and earnings, and a dividend.

General Electric (GE): This stock has been a frustration for years. It cut the dividend. The price went from $38 a share to $8 from 2008 to 2009. Now it's coming back. The latest quarterly and annual reports for 2010 confirm the company's finally seeing better demand for most of its products and services.

GE mirrors the economy because it's in so many different parts of it. Here are only some of its offerings: jet engines, light bulbs, credit, mortgage finance, appliances, power plants, locomotives, electric distribution and control equipment, generators and turbines, real estate, commercial finance, aircraft leasing, NBC Universal, health care and several more. When the economy does well, so does GE.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Ride the Recovery with These Three Stocks

Jim Rogers Is Still a Big-Time Commodities Bull

goldAfter a torrid year, the commodities markets showed some weakness is January. For example, gold fell by about 6%.

So is this a correction or finally a bear market?

Well, legendary investor, Jim Rogers, still thinks that commodities are the best place for your investment dollars (according to an interview on CNBC). No doubt, he has lots of credibility. When others snickered, Rogers started to invest in commodities in the late 1990s. He even wrote a book on the topic.

Continue reading Jim Rogers Is Still a Big-Time Commodities Bull

Holiday Sales Falling Short of Expectations

holdiay shoppingDecember is not shaping up to have been the retail windfall that many experts predicted, which may be setting up a rather scary situation. Don't worry folks, the experts are going to blame the poor December revenue on different factors, including strong November sales taking away from December and post-Christmas sales suffering from the Northeast blizzard.

First things first, not all retailers have reported their results -- a majority of heavy hitters will report today. Nevertheless, the results are being described as "slow and steady" rather than the expected blowout holiday shopping season. For example, Costco (COST) reported sales that increased 6%. This is positive data, unfortunately expectations called for an increase of 6.2%. Target (TGT) saw sales increase 0.9%, well short of the expected 4%. Of course sales were better at Macy's (M), right? I mean they are adding jobs and all. Wrong, sales did increase (3.9%) but missed expectations (4.5%).

Continue reading Holiday Sales Falling Short of Expectations

Consumer Confidence Drops in December

consumer confidenceJust as we are hearing that retailers had a great December, we get news from the Conference Board that U.S. consumer confidence dropped to 52.5 in December. Expectations had been for an increase to 56.9, making for quite a disparity between expectation and reality.

The director of the Conference Board's consumer research center, Lynn Franco, noted that "Consumers' assessment of the current state of the economy and labor market remains tepid, and their outlook remains cautious." Franco added that signs suggest continuing growth for the economy, "but that the pace of growth will remain moderate."

Continue reading Consumer Confidence Drops in December

Durable Goods Orders Drop in November

Department of Commerce sealThursday morning, the Commerce Department announced that orders for U.S.-made durable goods dropped during November, falling 1.3% for the month. The drop was larger than the expected drop of 0.5%.

Taking transportation out of the picture, new orders increased by 2.4%, showing that the major drag on the data was transportation-equipment orders. Core durable-goods orders (which exclude defense and aircraft) increased 2.6%, a far better performance than the 3.6% decline in October. Analysts at Barclay's Capital called for a gain in core capital goods that reflect, "further expansion in the manufacturing sector."

Continue reading Durable Goods Orders Drop in November

Ciena Shoots Higher

Ciena logoAs noted in September, broadband/bandwidth play Ciena's (CIEN) pop back above the key, 50-day moving average was a good omen, and the stock has since rocketed up to about $21, taking out psychological resistance at $20.

Ciena, first discussed here on May 19, 2009, at a price of $11.27, remains on track to post a roughly 50% increase in revenue in FY2011, after a likely 80% to 90% increase in FY2010, aided by revenue from its $521 million acquisition of Nortel's Metro Ethernet Networking business in March.

Continue reading Ciena Shoots Higher

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Surprises No One

The news is out, the Federal Reserve decided to leave its key interest rate and the size of its bond purchase program unchanged. This move should surprise very few, with the tepid reaction from investors serving as evidence. The Fed funds rate remains in its all-time low range of 0 to 0.25%, its perch since December 2008. The move was not unanimous, as Thomas Hoenig, President of the Kansas City Fed, dissented with a warning that a large stimulus could lead to inflationary expectations that could in turn choke off any economic recovery.

Continue reading Fed Holds Rates Steady, Surprises No One

Nine Reasons for Slow U.S. Economic Growth

In my new book, The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for an Era of Slow Growth and Deflation, I discuss nine reasons for slow U.S. economic growth and real GDP gains of about 2% annually in the long run.

1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.

Continue reading Nine Reasons for Slow U.S. Economic Growth

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DJIA-89.2312,801.23
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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 01:33 PM

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