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Posts with tag economic stimulus

Can Obama create 2.5 million jobs?

President-elect Obama wants his economic team to develop a plan to create 2.5 million jobs by January 2011. Such a plan has the virtue of providing a specific goal -- and with 1.2 million jobs lost so far this year and more on the way, such a goal would more than offset the lost jobs.

But setting the goal and achieving it are two different things. In the next two months, Obama's economic team -- which will reportedly be announced on Monday -- will need to flesh out the details of a strategy to achieve this goal. And these details will involve using government money to rebuild roads and bridges, upgrade schools and build wind farms and alternative energy technologies.

If Obama is to achieve his goal, he will need to get legislation passed soon after he takes the oath of office. And the legislation will need to provide concrete answers to many questions: Which projects will the government invest in? How many jobs will the projects produce? How much money will be required to finance these projects? Where will the money come from? What profits will these projects generate? How soon will the government get its investment paid back? How much economic growth will these projects create?

I think Obama is certainly focusing on an important priority here. And I look forward to seeing his administration's answers to these questions over the next few months.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Will a second economic stimulus revive Obama's campaign?

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, who has made the economy a focal point in his campaign, is slipping in the polls as the popularity of opponent John McCain surged after his selection of the Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running-mate.

Now Obama and his supporters are hoping that their support for a second economic stimulus -- worth about $50 billion -- will grab the attention of voters fascinated by Palin, the moose-hunting hockey mom conservative firebrand. That's going to be a challenge.

Voters now are focused on Palin. They are gobbling up every detail about her life -- The Bridge to Nowhere (which she actually supported for a while), her baby with Down's Syndrome, her pregnant teenage daughter, whether she wanted to ban books from the local library. The list is endless. The McCain campaign is fueling interest in "Sarah Barracuda" by keeping her away from the media. This week, Palin is supposed to sit down with Charlie Gibson of ABC News. More interviews will follow though apparently not with Oprah Winfrey.

Democrats, including this one, are betting that once Palin is no longer the flavor of the week voters will move onto more pressing issues such as the economy (and, of course, "American Idol"). The economy is in terrible shape. The federal budget deficit is soaring and unemployment is at record levels. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers endorsed the second stimulus plan today in testimony before Congress.

Continue reading Will a second economic stimulus revive Obama's campaign?

Do we need a second economic stimulus bill?

Congressional Democrats, including Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va, are pushing for the enactment of a second economic stimulus bill worth $24 billion, including a $6 billion lifeline for the beleaguered auto industry. Odds of it passing in a presidential election year are slim to none.

Democrats, though, are giving the people what they want. Regardless of whether it's a good idea or not, it's fantastic politics. Democrats can prove to voters, who are fed up with the lousy economy, that they "feel their pain," leaving aside the debate of whether it's needed.

That explains why House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., says that the second stimulus bill will need to have bipartisan support -- as the first one got -- because it is vital for the economy. Like the first economic stimulus plan, Byrd's bill will be temporary, targeted and provide disaster relief, according to CQ Politics.com.

"The Speaker earlier had vowed to enact a second measure, totaling at least $50 billion, before Congress leaves this year," the website says. "But the president and congressional Republicans have been less enthusiastic about the idea, repeatedly arguing that lawmakers should wait to assess the impact of the tax rebates and other incentives enacted in February."

Continue reading Do we need a second economic stimulus bill?

Another reason why the economy may not benefit from stimulus checks

Some people waiting for their economic stimulus checks may be in for a shock.

According to USA Today, about $2 billion in payments from 1.8 million checks are being confiscated from people who owe child support, student loans and back taxes. Taxpayers get letters from the government explaining why their bank accounts are not being stimulated and so far few have complained, according to a Treasury Department official quoted by the newspaper.

I am all for making sure that children get the financial support they deserve. People also should not be able to dodge student loan payments or tax bills. The government, though, cannot impose a one-size-fits-all solution. For instance, what if someone is laid off and is already behind in their bills? The economic stimulus is supposed to help people in need, right?

Though the economic stimulus checks have helped boost retail sales, investors should keep their expectations in check. Many of the people I know are using their stimulus checks to pay bills, not buy big-screen televisions. A good portion of my stimulus is going right back to Uncle Sam for taxes I need to pay for being self-employed. That's another rant for another time.

Continue reading Another reason why the economy may not benefit from stimulus checks

Federal infrastructure spending could gain traction if U.S. recession lingers

As Congressional Democrats and Bush Administration officials evaluate additional legislative ideas aimed at further stimulating the anemic U.S. economy, one proposal that could gain more traction in the months ahead concerns domestic infrastructure.

The consensus among economists is that the first economic stimulus package will provide only a modest boost (at best) to the U.S. economy, economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday. Further, if many Americans choose to save or invest their $300-$1200 tax rebate, instead of spending it or using it to pay down debt, the stimulus effect will be even less than projected.

That would leave the U.S. economy with a correcting housing sector, record-high oil prices (oil topped $113 per barrel Wednesday), a contracting job sector, an investment banking sector largely seeking to rebuild balance sheets and not lend money, and rising living costs weighing on consumer spending. In other words, Wang said, all of the classic U.S. growth engines, except exports, are likely to serve as contractionary forces through at least the first half of 2008, and most likely for considerably longer.

Continue reading Federal infrastructure spending could gain traction if U.S. recession lingers

Democrats can solve the recession, polls say

Want to know how much the Republicans are the creek in this presidential election? A Bloomberg News/Los Angeles Times poll found that voters believe Democrats are better able to handle the economy than President George W. Bush by a margin of 51% to 29%.

Moreover, more than two-thirds respondents said they believed the economy was doing badly, up from 56% in December. More people -- about 80% -- see a recession as likely, up from 71%. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found similar results.

Is it any wonder that President Bush buried the bipartisan hatchet and worked out a fiscal stimulus package?

Wouldn't the economy have gotten more of a kick if unemployment insurance was extended?

That issue will be hotly debated when the bill gets to the Senate. Sen. Max Baucus, the chair of the Senate Tax Committee, told the Wall Street Journal that leaving it out was a "mistake." Let's hope the new spirit of bipartisanship in Washington lasts a little longer.

But I wonder whether sending tax rebates -- mine would be about $1,500 -- will really stimulate the economy? Odds are pretty good that my wife and I are going to wind up handing a lot of that money right back to Uncle Sam which isn't very stimulating if you ask me.



Use $140 billion stimulus for bank capital, not tax rebates

President Bush The stock market is not exactly cheering about the announcement of a $140 billion stimulus plan which would give people $800 tax rebate checks. In a $14 trillion economy, that 1% of GDP rebate won't do much.

I think the money would go much further if it was used to recapitalize the banks that are writing down their collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). To maintain their capital ratios -- for instance, Citigroup (NYSE: C)'s Tier 1 capital ratio target of 7.5% -- banks that write down their assets need to either raise more capital or shed more assets or both.

But the great thing about recapitalizing banks is that they could lend out that capital to people who would put down some of their own capital and borrow the rest to make a purchase. $1 of capital invested in a bank could add almost $17 to GDP. Here's a rough example: if a bank trying to maintain a 7.5% capital ratio gets $1 of capital, then it can theoretically make roughly $13.33 worth of loans. If a person wants to buy a house with a 20% down payment, then that $13.33 can be used to buy $16.66 worth of real estate.

Continue reading Use $140 billion stimulus for bank capital, not tax rebates

Why Bernanke's wrong to support stimulus

After watching part of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's testimony before Congress this morning, it's clear that he supports economic stimulus but does not want to exacerbate long-term deficit problems by making the stimulus permanent. I give him credit for trying to strike a healthy balance between helping the economy in the short-term without making the deficit worse. Although no politician will dare say this, as I posted here, I think the right answer is to let the recession happen without government interference.

Any presidential candidate who does not support either fiscal stimulus -- in the form of a tax rebate or a government check to citizens -- a tax cut, or both is cruising for a bruising. That's because in an election year, a politician who does not get on the bandwagon will be severely criticized by rivals for not caring about people.

There are two reasons I think economic stimulus is the wrong answer. First, it will have the negative consequence of increasing the Federal deficit which will lead to more borrowing. This will contribute to inflation and the further decline of the dollar. Consumers will be squeezed further as they suffer due to rising unemployment and stagnant wages even as prices of energy and food keep going up.

Continue reading Why Bernanke's wrong to support stimulus

When will the market take its head out of the oven?

Sometimes, the market works in mysterious ways. This isn't one of those days.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 234 points to 12,543.95 after Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) posted a record $10 billion loss, retail sales were weaker than expected, and oil prices declined, dragging down energy stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index, fell 58.70 to 2,419.60 and the S&P 500 index dropped 32.10 to 1,384.15.

In an interview with Bloomberg News, veteran market pundit Laszlo Birinyi said, "There seems to be no end of bad news. Trying to bottom-fish may work when you're out there angling, but I'm not sure it works with financial markets.''

Good point. Investors in volatile markets often forget that stocks, such as Citigroup, are cheap for a good reason. Trying to pick a bottom in this market is going to be difficult because there hasn't been anything quite like the subprime mortgage meltdown.

Continue reading When will the market take its head out of the oven?

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Last updated: December 04, 2008: 11:25 PM

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