economiccrisis posts
FeedPosted Oct 12th 2009 2:50PM by Tom Johansmeyer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Employees, Economic data, Recession, Financial Crisis
We've watched stock market numbers bounce around for two years. Unemployment stats have served as unpleasant reminders that, for some, leading indicators haven't translated to reality. We look for so many ways to understand the brutal economic environment with which we've had to contend, and all the choices can make your head spin. So, let's make it simple. Here are eight ways to tack a label onto the financial world in which we live.
1. Lost market value
Total stock market losses from October 2007's top to March 2009's bottom: $11.2 trillion
Total gains in the stock market since the bottom: $4.6 trillion
Lost ground: $6.6 trillion
2. Bad days
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the Dow Jones Industrial Average that happened in 2008, by point drops: 60%
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the DJIA that happened in 2008, by percentage drops: 30%
3. Mutual funds
Value of mutual fund assets at the end of 2007: $6.5 trillion
... and a year later: $3.7 million
Lost value: $2.8 trillion
But, it got a little better at the end of August 2009: $4.5 trillion (value of assets)
Continue reading Eight ways to define the recession
Posted Sep 2nd 2009 9:30AM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, Economic data

The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment report was released before the opening bell Wednesday morning, showing that the
private sector lost 298,000 jobs during August. Expectations called for a
loss of 255,000 jobs, but the loss was better than the revised 360,000 jobs lost during July.
A spokesperson for ADP noted a "gradual improvement in labor markets" because "monthly losses are diminishing." That said, the group did note that job losses are likely to continue for "several more months."
In addition to this news, Challenger Gray & Christmas reported that layoffs planned by major U.S. corporations
fell 21% from July to August. The 76,456 layoffs in August were the second-lowest amount cut in 2009.
Continue reading Job cuts slow in August, more not-so-bad news
Posted Aug 20th 2009 8:15AM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Before the bell, Earnings reports, Bad news, Sears Holdings (SHLD)

Slumping sales did in
Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:
SHLD) in the
second quarter, as the company posted a surprise loss of 17 cents per share (excluding items). The
Street expected the company to report earnings of 38 cents per share. Why the staggering disparity?
One reason is that comparable-store sales dropped 8.6% (12.5% at Sears stores and 3.9% at Kmart). Another reason is what the company called "significant items," which include costs associated with store closings and severance (32 cents per share), domestic pension plan expenses (22 cents per share), mark-to-market losses on Sears Canada hedge transactions (8 cents per share), and a positive impact of a reversal of a $62-million reserve (29 cents per share). The store closings include charges that related to the decision to close 28 underperforming stores.
Continue reading Sears reports a surprise loss; could be in for a long day
Posted Jul 28th 2009 3:30PM by Tom Johansmeyer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Headline news, Recession, Financial Crisis
With all the focus on unemployment, the usual recession victims have been overlooked a bit. The over-65 crowd, living on fixed incomes, has seen portfolios decimated and those consistent dividends from blue chippers evaporate. At the same time, medical costs are headed in the other direction. Expenses up and income down, seniors have found only one solution: credit cards.
Low- and middle-income consumers who've reached or passed age 65 had $10,235 in credit card debt, on average, last year, up a disturbing 26% from 2005. Meanwhile, credit card debt climbed only 3% across all age groups – to $9,827. From the fourth quarter of last year to the first this year, total revolving debt fell a modest 2.3% to $939.6 billion.
Continue reading Old folks leaning on credit cards to get by
Posted Jul 23rd 2009 9:20AM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Goldman Sachs Group (GS)
Who is ready for their morning dose of anger? That is what I thought this morning when I found out about the higher pay at some investment banks following the recent bailouts. Well, let me qualify that -- it isn't necessarily higher pay, but some execs will receive the same amount as they did before the bailouts. Some Wall Street firms, enjoying improving profits are on track to "pay employees as much as, or even more than, it did in the pre-crisis days." The top six U.S. banks have set aside $74 billion to pay employees, up from $60 billion last year, according to the Washington Post.
Continue reading Wall Street pay is higher than pre-crisis levels
Posted Jul 10th 2009 5:20PM by Tom Johansmeyer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Recession, Financial Crisis
There are two competing positions on consumer sentiment right now. One is that it turned south last week, as people worried about their jobs – always a bad sign for spending. The other is that consumer sentiment didn't crap out in July: it fizzled in May. So, it's not a question of whether consumers aren't confident in the U.S. economic machine, it's just a matter of when the collective mood changed.
The July camp is set up around the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, which makes now the weakest point for consumer sentiment since March. Those who favor May look to domestic demand for foreign goods, which went soft two months ago, bringing the monthly trade deficit to its narrowest since 1999. The U.S. trade gap unexpectedly tightened to $26 billion in May, with exports up 1.6% and imports down 0.6%, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Continue reading Consumer sentiment down, according to everyone
Posted Jun 18th 2009 2:10PM by Tom Johansmeyer (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Industry, Economic data, Recession
Retail sales took an unexpected downward turn in May in the United Kingdom -- for first time in three months. Cautious banks appear to be the problem, as their rationing of credit is impeding broader economic recovery. Retail sales fell 0.6% from the previous month, while economists had predicted a 0.3% change in the other direction.
Year-over-year, retail sales were off 1.6%. Sales for the year are down 1.1%, the greatest decline since score-keeping began in 1988. Of course, there's plenty of fodder for rationalizing the results. The annual change was affected by an "unusually large" retail sales estimate for May 2008. Clothing, textile, and footwear retailers and department stores led the plunge, with nonfood store sales off 1.4%, compared to a 0.3% increase in food retail sales.
Continue reading Banks putting pressure on UK retail sales
Posted Jun 17th 2009 10:30AM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Commodities, Oil, DJIA
Oil prices have dropped a bit this morning, challenging support at the $70 level, due mainly to what some call
"mixed signals" about the U.S. economy. The black gold has backed off as data pointed to the fact that the U.S. economy is still weak, even if it is emerging from the recession.
On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve announced that industrial production dropped more than expected during May, which has triggered the new weakness in the oil patch. Crude prices have also felt the sting of the market's early week weakness as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has backed off from its recent rally. In addition, the dollar has played an important part in crude prices. A weak dollar leads to higher oil prices as commodities are considered a safe-haven investment against a weak dollar.
Continue reading Mixed economic signs push oil prices lower
Posted Jun 12th 2009 10:30AM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Sony Corp ADR (SNE), Electronic Arts (ERTS), Nintendo (NTDOY)

May marked the third-straight month that video game software sales dropped, a sign that the economic downturn continues to weigh on the gaming sector. NPD Group released its video game sales data yesterday afternoon, reflecting sales that
fell to $448.9 million during May. These monthly results are 17% lower than the same period last year. The drop in software sales was somewhat expected, as the Street called for a drop between 15% and 20%. Hardware sales dropped 30% during May, totaling $302.5 million.
But the comparisons are difficult as major hits were released during spring 2008, including
Grand Theft Auto IV,
Mario Kart, and
Super Smash Bros. Brawl. There were no such major hits released this year.
Continue reading Video game sales drop again; recovery still far away
Posted Jun 9th 2009 10:10AM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Economic data, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis

The Congressional Oversight Panel announced in a report this morning that it feels
more bank stress tests are needed, especially if unemployment rates continue to rise. The group believes that the stress tests should be repeated periodically as long as banks continue to hold toxic assets.
The panel used a risk-modeling approach that is described as "reasonable and conservative," but added that it is impossible for an outside party to mirror the loss projections that form the core of the stress tests. The group noted that the "more adverse scenario" assumption for the U.S. unemployment rate in the tests has nearly been met in 2009. The yearly average for the unemployment rate stands at 8.5%, which isn't far from the 8.9% assumed in the first round of stress tests. The group recommended that the "Treasury publicly track the status of its stress test macro-economic assumptions (unemployment, GDP, and housing prices) and repeat the stress test if the adverse scenario assumptions have been exceeded."
Continue reading More bank stress tests needed?
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