AOL Money & Finance

economiccrisis posts

Feed

Are you ready for a 'slow and painful' recovery?

On Monday, the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) announced that it believes the recession is over, but many of the economists it surveyed don't believe there will be a "meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come."

NABE asked a group of 43 top economists if they believe the U.S. economy has pulled out of the recession. Of those responding, 81% believe the recovery has started recovering, and 9% (four of those responding) thinking we are still in a recession. Four others were unsure.

Continue reading Are you ready for a 'slow and painful' recovery?

Eight ways to define the recession

We've watched stock market numbers bounce around for two years. Unemployment stats have served as unpleasant reminders that, for some, leading indicators haven't translated to reality. We look for so many ways to understand the brutal economic environment with which we've had to contend, and all the choices can make your head spin. So, let's make it simple. Here are eight ways to tack a label onto the financial world in which we live.

1. Lost market value
Total stock market losses from October 2007's top to March 2009's bottom: $11.2 trillion
Total gains in the stock market since the bottom: $4.6 trillion
Lost ground: $6.6 trillion

2. Bad days
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the Dow Jones Industrial Average that happened in 2008, by point drops: 60%
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the DJIA that happened in 2008, by percentage drops: 30%

3. Mutual funds
Value of mutual fund assets at the end of 2007: $6.5 trillion
... and a year later: $3.7 million
Lost value: $2.8 trillion

But, it got a little better at the end of August 2009: $4.5 trillion (value of assets)

Continue reading Eight ways to define the recession

Job cuts slow in August, more not-so-bad news

The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment report was released before the opening bell Wednesday morning, showing that the private sector lost 298,000 jobs during August. Expectations called for a loss of 255,000 jobs, but the loss was better than the revised 360,000 jobs lost during July.

A spokesperson for ADP noted a "gradual improvement in labor markets" because "monthly losses are diminishing." That said, the group did note that job losses are likely to continue for "several more months."

In addition to this news, Challenger Gray & Christmas reported that layoffs planned by major U.S. corporations fell 21% from July to August. The 76,456 layoffs in August were the second-lowest amount cut in 2009.

Continue reading Job cuts slow in August, more not-so-bad news

Sears reports a surprise loss; could be in for a long day

Slumping sales did in Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) in the second quarter, as the company posted a surprise loss of 17 cents per share (excluding items). The Street expected the company to report earnings of 38 cents per share. Why the staggering disparity?

One reason is that comparable-store sales dropped 8.6% (12.5% at Sears stores and 3.9% at Kmart). Another reason is what the company called "significant items," which include costs associated with store closings and severance (32 cents per share), domestic pension plan expenses (22 cents per share), mark-to-market losses on Sears Canada hedge transactions (8 cents per share), and a positive impact of a reversal of a $62-million reserve (29 cents per share). The store closings include charges that related to the decision to close 28 underperforming stores.

Continue reading Sears reports a surprise loss; could be in for a long day

John Deere reports quarterly earnings that top expectations

Earlier this morning, Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) reported third-quarter earnings that dropped 27% as a result of falling sales during the past quarter. The farming equipment firm reported quarterly earnings of 99 cents per share, easily topping the consensus estimate of 57 cents per share.

While the results crushed the Street's estimate, it fell short of DE's year-ago performance. Quarterly revenue fell 24% compared to a year ago to $5.89 billion -- which again easily bested the consensus estimate for $5.25 billion.

Continue reading John Deere reports quarterly earnings that top expectations

Old folks leaning on credit cards to get by

With all the focus on unemployment, the usual recession victims have been overlooked a bit. The over-65 crowd, living on fixed incomes, has seen portfolios decimated and those consistent dividends from blue chippers evaporate. At the same time, medical costs are headed in the other direction. Expenses up and income down, seniors have found only one solution: credit cards.

Low- and middle-income consumers who've reached or passed age 65 had $10,235 in credit card debt, on average, last year, up a disturbing 26% from 2005. Meanwhile, credit card debt climbed only 3% across all age groups – to $9,827. From the fourth quarter of last year to the first this year, total revolving debt fell a modest 2.3% to $939.6 billion.

Continue reading Old folks leaning on credit cards to get by

Wall Street pay is higher than pre-crisis levels

Who is ready for their morning dose of anger? That is what I thought this morning when I found out about the higher pay at some investment banks following the recent bailouts. Well, let me qualify that -- it isn't necessarily higher pay, but some execs will receive the same amount as they did before the bailouts. Some Wall Street firms, enjoying improving profits are on track to "pay employees as much as, or even more than, it did in the pre-crisis days." The top six U.S. banks have set aside $74 billion to pay employees, up from $60 billion last year, according to the Washington Post.

Continue reading Wall Street pay is higher than pre-crisis levels

AK Steel earnings preview

AK Steel Earnings PreviewAK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS) is due to report earnings tomorrow before the market opens, and the company is expected to post another quarterly loss.

The current recession has been tough on steel makers, and Ohio based AK Steel is no exception. The company has been forced to lower prices and lay off workers in the wake of slumping demand for its steel products.

Continue reading AK Steel earnings preview

Consumer sentiment down, according to everyone

There are two competing positions on consumer sentiment right now. One is that it turned south last week, as people worried about their jobs – always a bad sign for spending. The other is that consumer sentiment didn't crap out in July: it fizzled in May. So, it's not a question of whether consumers aren't confident in the U.S. economic machine, it's just a matter of when the collective mood changed.

The July camp is set up around the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, which makes now the weakest point for consumer sentiment since March. Those who favor May look to domestic demand for foreign goods, which went soft two months ago, bringing the monthly trade deficit to its narrowest since 1999. The U.S. trade gap unexpectedly tightened to $26 billion in May, with exports up 1.6% and imports down 0.6%, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Continue reading Consumer sentiment down, according to everyone

Banks putting pressure on UK retail sales

Retail sales took an unexpected downward turn in May in the United Kingdom -- for first time in three months. Cautious banks appear to be the problem, as their rationing of credit is impeding broader economic recovery. Retail sales fell 0.6% from the previous month, while economists had predicted a 0.3% change in the other direction.

Year-over-year, retail sales were off 1.6%. Sales for the year are down 1.1%, the greatest decline since score-keeping began in 1988. Of course, there's plenty of fodder for rationalizing the results. The annual change was affected by an "unusually large" retail sales estimate for May 2008. Clothing, textile, and footwear retailers and department stores led the plunge, with nonfood store sales off 1.4%, compared to a 0.3% increase in food retail sales.

Continue reading Banks putting pressure on UK retail sales

Mixed economic signs push oil prices lower

Oil prices have dropped a bit this morning, challenging support at the $70 level, due mainly to what some call "mixed signals" about the U.S. economy. The black gold has backed off as data pointed to the fact that the U.S. economy is still weak, even if it is emerging from the recession.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve announced that industrial production dropped more than expected during May, which has triggered the new weakness in the oil patch. Crude prices have also felt the sting of the market's early week weakness as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has backed off from its recent rally. In addition, the dollar has played an important part in crude prices. A weak dollar leads to higher oil prices as commodities are considered a safe-haven investment against a weak dollar.

Continue reading Mixed economic signs push oil prices lower

International Monetary Fund warns of a double dip

While most headlines in the financial media recently reported economists and institutions projecting the end of the recession in the second half of the year, the IMF said Monday the worst of crisis may be yet to come.

While those who think we are out of the woods believe this recession will have just one dip, the IMF seems to advocate what is known as a "double dip" recession. They believe that the expected upward swing in Gross Domestic Product for developed nations will just precede yet another economic collapse in the first half of next year.

Continue reading International Monetary Fund warns of a double dip

Video game sales drop again; recovery still far away

May marked the third-straight month that video game software sales dropped, a sign that the economic downturn continues to weigh on the gaming sector. NPD Group released its video game sales data yesterday afternoon, reflecting sales that fell to $448.9 million during May. These monthly results are 17% lower than the same period last year. The drop in software sales was somewhat expected, as the Street called for a drop between 15% and 20%. Hardware sales dropped 30% during May, totaling $302.5 million.

But the comparisons are difficult as major hits were released during spring 2008, including Grand Theft Auto IV, Mario Kart, and Super Smash Bros. Brawl. There were no such major hits released this year.

Continue reading Video game sales drop again; recovery still far away

More bank stress tests needed?

The Congressional Oversight Panel announced in a report this morning that it feels more bank stress tests are needed, especially if unemployment rates continue to rise. The group believes that the stress tests should be repeated periodically as long as banks continue to hold toxic assets.

The panel used a risk-modeling approach that is described as "reasonable and conservative," but added that it is impossible for an outside party to mirror the loss projections that form the core of the stress tests. The group noted that the "more adverse scenario" assumption for the U.S. unemployment rate in the tests has nearly been met in 2009. The yearly average for the unemployment rate stands at 8.5%, which isn't far from the 8.9% assumed in the first round of stress tests. The group recommended that the "Treasury publicly track the status of its stress test macro-economic assumptions (unemployment, GDP, and housing prices) and repeat the stress test if the adverse scenario assumptions have been exceeded."

Continue reading More bank stress tests needed?

Gap's first-quarter earnings top expectations

Trendy retailer Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) announced Thursday that its first-quarter earnings declined compared to a year ago. The khaki king's earnings were pulled lower by poor sales due to the economic crisis. That said, the company's quarterly earnings topped the consensus estimate.

For the quarter, Gap earned 31 cents per share, down from 34 cents a year ago, but a penny better than analyst projections. Sales for the quarter dropped to $3.13 billion, matching the Street's expected $3.14 billion.

Continue reading Gap's first-quarter earnings top expectations

Next Page >

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-14.2810,318.16
NASDAQ-10.782,146.04
S&P 500-3.521,091.38

Last updated: November 22, 2009: 09:07 AM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

DailyFinance Headlines

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

WalletPop Headlines

AOL Business News

BioHealth Investor Headlines

Sponsored Links

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance