There are two competing positions on consumer sentiment right now. One is that it turned south last week, as people worried about their jobs – always a bad sign for spending. The other is that consumer sentiment didn't crap out in July: it fizzled in May. So, it's not a question of whether consumers aren't confident in the U.S. economic machine, it's just a matter of when the collective mood changed.

The July camp is set up around the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, which makes now the weakest point for consumer sentiment since March. Those who favor May look to domestic demand for foreign goods, which went soft two months ago, bringing the monthly trade deficit to its narrowest since 1999. The U.S. trade gap unexpectedly tightened to $26 billion in May, with exports up 1.6% and imports down 0.6%, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Auto sales continued to drop in June, but we are starting to see signs that sales may be beginning to stabilize a bit.

The auto industry is still in deep trouble. It is going to take a while before things get back to normal, but before things can even start to improve, they have to stop worsening, and that's what may be happening.

This morning, JPMorgan Chase upgraded FedEx (NYSE: FDX) to "overweight" from "neutral," citing the company's "strong operating leverage" that "should drive performance for the stock when there is improvement in the economy." The brokerage also stated that bad news is already reflected in FDX's stock price. They also upped the dean of delivery's price target to $66 per share from $60 per share.

Is this upgrade a smart move or wishful thinking? I have reservations on a couple of levels, so let's address those, shall we? My first reservation is on a fundamental level. The per-barrel price of oil is rising and could continue to rise, leading to higher gas prices. If this situation occurs, we could see FedEx punished a bit, mainly because of the company's reliance on gasoline. Yes, there is a possibility that FedEx could break its reliance on black gold, but it would take a fleet of hybrid or electric vehicles for this to happen -- and that costs a lot of money.

Earlier this week we were looking at oil prices, and wondering if we would see the precious crude break through the psychological $70 barrier, and that is exactly what we saw today.

For the first time since last November, oil prices were briefly above $70 today, moving up as high as $70.32 before profit taking pushed oil prices down on the day. We finished up the week at $68.44, down 37 cents.

Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL), a builder of luxury homes, issued some preliminary revenue results for its second quarter and six-month period. Now, there isn't a lot of surprising stuff here. Things are down, to be certain. What you possibly might be surprised by is the way the stock is trading. As I write this, shares of Toll Brothers have shed about 1% of their value. While that might sound logical because of the presented data, I do have to say that, to me at least, the fact that the shares haven't plunged on the news is almost an encouraging sign.

Something interesting is happening in the world of the NFL as this weekend's draft approaches. With so much talent in the pool, it appears that every team with one of the top 10 picks is trying to trade out of their current draft position.

In the past, teams used this chart to determine the value of draft picks when trying to trade up or down in the draft. Basically, if you wanted to trade into the top spot from the 16th spot with just draft picks, you would have to find a way to get the team in the top spot as much value as possible. The difference between the 16th and the top pick is 2,000 points, so equaling this value could be rather difficult (just ask the New Orleans Saints who traded an entire draft to pick Ricky Williams).