economy posts
Posted Jul 11th 2009 10:30AM by Ted Allrich
Filed under: General Electric (GE), Coca-Cola (KO), International Business Machines (IBM), Comfort Zone Investing

Summertime....and the livin' ain't easy. The economy's in worse shape than the administration thought, even after pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into it. More people are losing their jobs. Unemployment's at 8.5% and according to many economists will go higher, maybe above 10% before the layoffs stop. Gas at the pump has gone above $3 again, even with the price of oil starting to show some weakness. Home prices are still going down and foreclosures continue to rise. Defaults on consumer credit is at all-time highs. When will it ever end?
Don't know. No one does. But that isn't a reason to stop investing, to quit preparing your portfolio for the next big upward move that will surely come. You doubt that? Just look at a price chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last 100 years. It's full of periods where the line is going down, only to be followed by large increases on the upside. Unless the whole capitalist system is gone forever, history will repeat. There will be an upward swing to this market, and it's more likely sooner rather than later.
Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: The glass isn't half empty -- it's half full
Posted Jul 10th 2009 5:20PM by Tom Johansmeyer
Filed under: Recession, Financial Crisis
There are two competing positions on consumer sentiment right now. One is that it turned south last week, as people worried about their jobs – always a bad sign for spending. The other is that consumer sentiment didn't crap out in July: it fizzled in May. So, it's not a question of whether consumers aren't confident in the U.S. economic machine, it's just a matter of when the collective mood changed.
The July camp is set up around the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, which makes now the weakest point for consumer sentiment since March. Those who favor May look to domestic demand for foreign goods, which went soft two months ago, bringing the monthly trade deficit to its narrowest since 1999. The U.S. trade gap unexpectedly tightened to $26 billion in May, with exports up 1.6% and imports down 0.6%, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Continue reading Consumer sentiment down, according to everyone
Posted Jul 9th 2009 6:40PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Other issues, Management, Rants and raves, Interviews, Market matters, Next big thing, Headline news, Recession, Financial Crisis

This morning Warren Buffett was interviewed and said he would be in favor of the federal government passing legislation for a
second stimulus bill -- increasing the money supply again by gargantuan proportions.
While
"my pal" Warren got plenty of ink (and pixels) for his comments it left me wanting more. Buffett has the most to gain, and the most to lose -- and at the same time he cannot really lose.
Since Buffett has so many billions of dollars and controls billions more, and influences still more in the hundreds of billions, he clearly has been and continues to be negatively affected by our economic firestorm more than almost any other individual could be.
Continue reading Warren Buffett, tells us more!
Posted Jul 2nd 2009 8:00AM by Michael Fowlkes
Filed under: Industry, Consumer experience, Competitive strategy, Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), Recession
Auto sales continued to drop in June, but we are starting to see signs that sales may be beginning to stabilize a bit.
The auto industry is still in deep trouble. It is going to take a while before things get back to normal, but before things can even start to improve, they have to stop worsening, and that's what may be happening.
Continue reading Auto sales show signs of stability
Posted Jun 23rd 2009 11:20AM by Mark Fightmaster
Filed under: Analyst upgrades and downgrades, FedEx Corp (FDX)
This morning, JPMorgan Chase upgraded FedEx (NYSE: FDX) to "overweight" from "neutral," citing the company's "strong operating leverage" that "should drive performance for the stock when there is improvement in the economy." The brokerage also stated that bad news is already reflected in FDX's stock price. They also upped the dean of delivery's price target to $66 per share from $60 per share.
Is this upgrade a smart move or wishful thinking? I have reservations on a couple of levels, so let's address those, shall we? My first reservation is on a fundamental level. The per-barrel price of oil is rising and could continue to rise, leading to higher gas prices. If this situation occurs, we could see FedEx punished a bit, mainly because of the company's reliance on gasoline. Yes, there is a possibility that FedEx could break its reliance on black gold, but it would take a fleet of hybrid or electric vehicles for this to happen -- and that costs a lot of money.
Continue reading Is JPMorgan's FedEx upgrade wishful thinking?
Posted Jun 16th 2009 6:00PM by Michael Fowlkes
Filed under: Major movement, Forecasts, Good news, Market matters, Money and Finance Today, Economic data, Housing, Recession, Financial Crisis

It was the largest jump in three months, as new home construction
increased by 17.2% during the last month.
The increase was much higher than analysts had been expecting, and last month we moved up to an annual rate of 532,000 units... well above the 500,000 units that had been forecast.
Continue reading New home construction jumps in May
Posted Jun 5th 2009 5:30PM by Michael Fowlkes
Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, Consumer experience, Middle East, Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Commodities, Oil, Recession
Earlier this week we were looking at oil prices, and wondering if we would see the precious crude break through the psychological $70 barrier, and that is exactly what we saw today.
For the first time since last November, oil prices were briefly above $70 today, moving up as high as $70.32 before profit taking pushed oil prices down on the day. We finished up the week at $68.44, down 37 cents.
Continue reading Oil closes the week down after breaking through $70
Posted Jun 4th 2009 1:40PM by Zac Bissonnette
Filed under: Economic data, Federal Reserve

With the Federal Reserve printing presses running on high, many investors are fearing the prospect of inflation -- especially as real estate values start to show signs of stabilization and some commodities show rising values.
But
Wall Street Journal (subscription required)economic editor David Wessel
wonders whether inflation fears are overblown, and suggests that it can be avoided: "The question now is whether central bankers and the rest of us will remember the lessons of the late '70s and do whatever it takes to avoid inflation."
Continue reading Don't worry about inflation? Oh, I'm worrying
Posted May 20th 2009 5:00PM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Earnings reports, Lowe's Cos (LOW), Toll Brothers (TOL)
Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL), a builder of luxury homes, issued some preliminary revenue results for its second quarter and six-month period. Now, there isn't a lot of surprising stuff here. Things are down, to be certain. What you possibly might be surprised by is the way the stock is trading. As I write this, shares of Toll Brothers have shed about 1% of their value. While that might sound logical because of the presented data, I do have to say that, to me at least, the fact that the shares haven't plunged on the news is almost an encouraging sign.
Continue reading Toll Brothers reports lousy preliminary data -- buy or sell on the news?
Posted May 8th 2009 2:20PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Good news, Rumors, Rants and raves, General Motors (GM), Scandals, Citigroup Inc. (C), Money and Finance Today, Amer Intl Group (AIG), Comfort Zone Investing, DJIA, Recession

The market has been leaving the doubters behind for the last nine weeks. If there is no pullback based on the bear market theories (that do make some sense), then all those folks who thought this push upward was phony are going to be sorry -- and poorer!
Bad news, modest earnings and even losses have not brought down the overall market. Low expectations for growth going forward, and the bankruptcies of major U.S. corporations only cause a short pause. Corporate scandals, shamed corporate executives and excesses have not shaken the market. Even multi-billion dollar con artists might make the headlines but they do not rattle anyone's nerves any more unless of course they had placed money in their slimy hands.
Over the course of the last year we have witnessed the dramatic collapse of the largest commercial bank in the world,
Citigroup (NYSE:
C), the largest thrift in the world; Washington Mutual; the largest insurance company in the world;
American International Group (NYSE:
AIG) and the largest automobile company in the world,
General Motors (NYSE:
GM) -- all U.S. based.
Continue reading Bear rally or not, investors seem shock-resistant
Posted May 7th 2009 5:30PM by Michael Fowlkes
Filed under: Forecasts, Good news, Employees, Market matters, Money and Finance Today, Economic data, DJIA, Financial Crisis

The market has been trading lower today, despite news that new jobless claims dropped much more
than analysts had been predicting.
The Department of labor announced today that there were 601,000 first time applicants for unemployment last week. While it is tough to find the bright side of this many people losing their jobs, the silver lining is that analysts had been expecting to see the report to show 635,000 new applicants.
Continue reading Has the sharp increase in layoffs finally peaked?
Posted Apr 24th 2009 5:00PM by Mark Fightmaster
Something interesting is happening in the world of the NFL as this weekend's draft approaches. With so much talent in the pool, it appears that every team with one of the top 10 picks is trying to trade out of their current draft position.
In the past, teams used this chart to determine the value of draft picks when trying to trade up or down in the draft. Basically, if you wanted to trade into the top spot from the 16th spot with just draft picks, you would have to find a way to get the team in the top spot as much value as possible. The difference between the 16th and the top pick is 2,000 points, so equaling this value could be rather difficult (just ask the New Orleans Saints who traded an entire draft to pick Ricky Williams).
Continue reading JockStocks: The upside-down economics of the NFL draft
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