"Valuations for even the best-placed, most well-established companies in the energy space are sitting at levels unseen since the late 1990s when oil prices collapsed to around $10 per barrel," says energy sector specialist Elliott Gue.
Here, the editor of The Energy Strategist looks at Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), noting, "The firm active in just about every imaginable market and I regard the company as a top-notch indicator of ongoing trends in the oil services business."
"It's clear that there's been some slowing in demand, and the credit crunch has had an impact on the fundamental business. But the reaction in the stock market over the past three months goes well beyond even a worst-case scenario.
"Bottom line: Many energy-related stocks are pricing in a severe recession and recent action in the broader markets is reminiscent of sentiment characteristically seen near market lows. The short-term outlook for the energy patch is much better now than it was during the bear market in 1998 and 2002.
"I regard Schlumberger as a top-notch indicator of ongoing trends in the oil services business and, more broadly, international oil and gas drilling activity. I always pay close attention to what Schlumberger has to say in its conference calls and, as usual, this quarter's call was instructive.
"In recoveries from panic selloffs in the past, the energy patch has tended to outperform the S&P 500," notes energy sector specialist Elliott Gue.
In his The Energy Strategist, the advisor offers his outlook for the sector as well as a package of five favorite energy-related stocks, including ideas in the drilling, infrastructure. oil services and exploration areas.
"This has undoubtedly been the most challenging and unsettled market in recent history for the stock, bond, currency and credit markets. Not surprisingly, the energy sector hasn't been immune to the selling pressure.
"However, I would note that the selloff in most energy stocks I cover has little or nothing to do with fundamentals and everything to do with market sentiment and a pervasive sense of panic.
"Institutions are dumping stocks to raise cash and the primary fear infecting the energy markets is that a dramatic global economic slowdown coupled with a seizing up of credit markets will destroy demand for energy commodities..
"If there's one sector that stands to benefit handsomely from a further slide in oil or, at least, a moderation in crude's rally: the airlines," explains energy sector expert Elliott Gue.
In The Energy Strategist, he says, "Airlines may make a terrible long-term investment but can be an outstanding short-term trade." Here he looks at Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and, for the even more speculatively-inclined, US Airways (NYSE: LCC).
"Some investors will rightfully cringe from any mention of this sector; after all, the airlines have consistently lost money throughout their post-deregulation history.
"Most of the majors have declared bankruptcy on multiple occasions since that time. However, we've traded the airlines on a few occasions; we took some triple-digit percentage gains in the airlines back in 2005.
"The airlines' leverage to oil prices is well known. Expectations are so low, in fact, that several major air carriers actually managed to beat consensus expectations in the second quarter.
"And although sentiment is already at rock-bottom, there's a real basis for cautious optimism. First, if I'm right about oil, fuel costs won't rise appreciably in the third quarter. This huge headwind is dissipating.
"Railroads are a play on three big secular themes: the drive for increased energy efficiency, growth in coal and the agriculture boom," says Elliott Gue, a energy sector expert who has just returned from Japan where he was covering the G8 Summit.
Meanwhile, in his The Energy Srategist, he states, "Railroads are now among the most fuel-efficient forms of freight transport available." Here, he offers a bullish review of Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP).
"My long-held thesis on the group has been that the railroads are no longer totally dependent on the US economy for their growth.
"It's no longer appropriate to look at this sector as viciously economy sensitive. The traditional relationship between the broader market and the rails has been breaking down for several years, but this trend appears to be accelerating.
"In 2007, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), the average railroad moved a ton of freight a distance of 436 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. That makes freight trains roughly three to four times more fuel efficient than trucks.
"Union Pacific is the largest railroad in the US and has long been one of my favorites. The company's network is nearly 33,000 miles long and is concentrated in the West and Midwest. It also offers a convenient example of the bullish forces at work for the rails, particularly in the coal and agriculture industries.
"One of my favorite indicators for the energy markets is the quarterly conference calls and earnings releases from Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)," says energy sector expert Elliott Gue.
In his The Energy Strategist, he explains, "In this quarter's call, Schlumberger's management team was notably upbeat, the most positive on industry growth expectations in more than a year. This is a key shift in sentiment that has broader implications for the energy patch at large."
"Schlumberger's reports and conference calls have proved extraordinarily useful in the past for determining the most profitable trends and investment themes. The reason for that is simple: Schlumberger is the largest oilfield services company and has its hand in just about every imaginable market all over the world.
"In addition, the company has traditionally offered long, detailed conference calls; CEO Andrew Gould often relates far more than the outlook for Schlumberger and offers considerable color and detail concerning trends for the industry in general.
"This quarter's conference call was no exception. Schlumberger's outlook this quarter was far more upbeat than in its third and fourth quarter 2007 earnings calls.
"Despite its dirty image, coal accounts for more than half of US power generation," says Elliott Gue, editor of the industry leading The Energy Strategist.
The advisor explains, "Although crude oil consistently makes the headlines, few realize that US coal prices recently surged to a fresh high." Here, he reviews a new portfolio holding, Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU).
"In addition to rising domestic demand, we are also seeing foreign demand. Indeed, coal accounts for about 50% of Germany's electricity production, 34% in the UK, 17% in Italy and a whopping 93% in Poland.
"Europe doesn't have enough coal production locally to satisfy demand. And now, the problem is that traditional sources of European coal imports aren't readily available.
"Despite the recent economic slowdown, Hexcel (NYSE: HXL) is seeing its market for carbon-fiber-based aerospace products and parts boom," says energy sector expert Elliott Gue.
The contributing editor to Personal Finance explains, "And in addition to growing aerospace demand, the firm has growing markets in wind power and nuclear power." Here is his review.
"Hexcel makes lightweight carbon-fiber parts used on modern aircraft designs. New aircraft designs such as the 787 incorporate far higher carbon-fiber content than older planes, so Hexcel is becoming an increasingly important supplier.
"The aerospace demand cycle isn't directly tied to demand for air travel. Airlines and aircraft leasing firms typically plan their purchases of new planes many years in advance; the aerospace cycle is highly visible and longer-term in nature.
"Currently, demand for modern fuel-efficient aircraft such as the 787 Dreamliner from Boeing (NYSE: BA) is booming. Hexcel recently reported fourth quarter results and offered management's outlook for the year ahead. Just over 50% of the company's total sales come from the commercial aerospace market.
"The market is booming: Sales surged more than 21% compared to the fourth quarter of 2006 in constant dollar terms. Hexcel sells to both Airbus and Boeing which have a combined acklog of nearly 7,000 planes that have been ordered but not yet delivered.
"Alternatives may not be an important source of electricity, but they are the fastest-growing subsector in the energy space," says energy sector expert Elliott Gue in Personal Finance. Here, he looks at wind power.
"The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that wind power will grow by more than 7%, encouraged by generous government subsidies. Compare that to just 1.5% annualized projected growth in total electricity demand.
"The world's largest wind turbine producer, Vestas Wind Systems (OTC: VWSYF), fell on hard times back in 2005. It priced some of its turbines too aggressively and saw a surge in warranty claims because of defective components.
"But the stock appears back on track. Warranty provisions are down to 5% of revenues. Profit margins surged 4 percentage points year-over-year because of more rational turbine pricing. Vestas' current backlog stands at EUR4.1 billion (US $6.03 billion), up more than 30% year-over-year.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My favorite aggressive recommendation for 2008 is Acergy (NASDAQ: ACGY)," says Elliott Gue, editor of The Energy Strategist.
"Acergy provides engineering and construction services for offshore oil and gas developments with a particular focus on deepwater projects. Acergy's most important business is what's known as SURF -- subsea umbilicals, risers and flowlines.
"SURF relates only to wells that are developed with subsea completions, meaning that the well is installed directly on the seafloor. When wells are installed on the seafloor, operators need ways to control the well remotely.
"This is done via electrical and hydraulic systems; umbilicals are nothing more than electrical and hydraulic cables that connect a surface-based platform to subsea wells. The term riser refers to a flexible steel pipe that connects underwater pipelines or wells to surface-based floating production platforms. Risers actually carry oil and/or gas from subsea developments to the surface.
"Finally, flowlines are smaller diameter pipes used to transport oil and gas underwater. Obviously, all subsea developments require the installation of SURF. Acergy's heavy concentration in this area gives it extraordinary leverage to deepwater.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Kinder has four basic business lines: oil pipelines and terminals, carbon dioxide (CO2) pipelines, natural gas pipelines and refined products pipes.
"Refined products pipelines are among the most stable assets a firm can own. Typically, they're dedicated to servicing a particular group of refineries, and volumes tend to grow at a slow but predictable rate over time. In Kinder's case, this is a simple, fee-based business. The company owns the valuable Plantation Pipeline that carries refined products from Gulf Coast refineries to the Mid-Atlantic.
"And the company's Pacific Pipeline carries refined products west to California. The West Coast is one area of the US that's chronically short of refining capacity. Pipelines carrying refined products from the Gulf are the only way California keeps moving.
"The big, integrated oil companies are known for their relative safety and stability, and most have been paying dividends for many years " says energy expert Elliott Gue.
In his The Energy Strategist he explains, "These have been among the most reliable stocks investors can own in the long run." Here, he looks at Chevron (NYSE: CVX), which he calls his favorite among the US independent oil companies.
"Chevron remains relatively cheap in three valuation measures: price-to-barrel of oil equivalents; price-to-earnings and price-to-cash-flow. And while its 2.7% yield doesn't exactly make Chevron an income stock, it's consistently boosted that payout over time by more than 10% annualized over the past five years.
"Chevron is also one of the only Super Oils that will show meaningful growth in production over the coming few years. Even more important, it's scheduled to start up four major projects over just the next two years that will generate significant production growth upside near term. Here's a quick rundown:
"Tahiti is a deepwater field in the Gulf of Mexico where Chevron holds a 58% stake. The field is expected to have a peak production rate of 125,000 barrels of oil per day and 70 million cubic feet of natural gas.
"We've added a high potential acquisition play to our model portfolio, Alumina Ltd. (NYSE: AWC)," note Elliott Gue and Yiannis Mostrous in their Vital Resource Investor.
The advisors explain, "The company is a leveraged bet on the recovery of aluminum prices in the next few quarters as China rationalizes output and exports by taking its high cost, heavily subsidized producers out of the game. Its small size and 40% stake in the world's largest low-cost portfolio of quality bauxite and alumina assets is a tempting target.
"Having the world's largest integrated bauxite mining and alumina refining system (it provides approximately 13% of the world's alumina supply) in one place is the company's main attraction. As energy, raw materials, and freight costs continue to increase, Alumina's setup enables its operations to be extremely efficient and low cost.
"The company is at a sweet spot because China's aluminum demand has been so strong that it's taken the industry by surprise. Although a large number of experts were at the start of the year forecasting 14% growth of China's aluminum demand for 2007, the latest projections (as per Alcoa's calculations) are pointing toward 35% growth.
"Further, China has a long way to go before it reaches the levels of consumption that more mature economies have achieved. And although it won't happen in one go, it will be a long and steady process. The bottom line: To meet this demand as well as demand from other countries like rapidly urbanizing rural India, aluminum production will have to grow much more rapidly than at any time in history."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com website features the latest investment commentary and favorite stock picks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
What are the best speculations and investments among metals, miners, and other resource plays? To find out, I turned to 20 of the nation's leading newsletter editors, as well as speakers from the recent New Orleans Conference, a leading forum for resource advisors.
Their current top ideas cover a wide diversity of ideas, from gold and silver, from alumina and copper, to platinum and palladium. These picks cover markets from Chile to China and from Canada to Russia. These ideas also range from large cap, well-established, and diversified companies to small cap, development-stage junior speculations.
Readers should only consider these ideas as a starting place for their own research and should keep in mind the caveat that any stock you buy should only be considered within the framework of your own time horizon and risk parameters. Meanwhile, here are 20 different advisors assessing various aspects of the metals, mining, and resources sectors:
"Biofuels won't solve the world's energy problems and will never substitute for crude oil," cautions Elliott Gue, editor of The Energy Strategist. "However, generous subsidies will power rapid growth in this industry."
He explains, "The U.S. government has mandated that the U.S. produce 12 billion gallons of ethanol by 2012, up from around 5.4 billion gallons in 2006. But many on both sides of the aisle in Congress want to extend that mandate to a whopping 35 billion gallons by 2017.
"To put that into perspective, there currently isn't enough corn grown in the U.S. to produce 35 billion gallons of corn-derived fuels even if we divert every last kernel to biofuels production.
"In addition, the European Union has aggressive mandates for biofuels production. Even in fast-growing Asia, there's plenty of growth to be found. The U.S. government offers generous funding and subsidies for biofuels production.
"Our recommend play in the biofuels sector is Monsanto (NYSE: MON), whose main business is the production of genetically modified (GM) seeds. GM seeds are designed to exhibit certain traits; examples might include drought, weed, and pest resistance.
"BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) should be part of any investor's portfolio," says leading energy and resources expert Elliott Gue. The editor of The Energy Strategist explains, "China is both the world's largest coal producer and its preeminent consumer. Demand for coal in Asia is growing rapidly, and China is moving from being an important net exporter to a net importer."
In light of the tight supply demand balance in Asia, he states that the obvious question is where all those coal imports will come from. One country he says that will dominate the export trade for the foreseeable future is Australia.
Gue says, "Australia has large reserves and production capabilities. And it is located relatively close to their key export markets. Meanwhile, Australia is a politically stable country with a solid legal system and a large, liquid stock market. In short: Australia is a great and politically safe place to invest."
Australian-based BHP Billiton is the world's largest producer of exported thermal and coking coal, generating around 37 million tons of met coal and 88 million tons of thermal coal annually, according to the advisor.