Meanwhile, the October estimated change in employment was revised to a decrease of 179,000 jobs from the previously-announced decrease of 157,000 jobs.
While manufacturing employment fell 118,000 in November -- its 27th consecutive monthly decline -- the service sector of the economy lost 92,000 jobs -- its second consecutive monthly job loss, and the first back-to-back monthly job loss in that sector since November 2002.
Economist Richard Felson said the November ADP private sector report shows a U.S. economy with few strengths. "It is another distressing report. The fact that the service sector is now registering large job losses is bearish for the economy. Previously, the service sector had been the only sign of strength," Felson said. "Simply, the nation, and the other regions of the world need to create engines of growth to reverse this negative spiral of decreased demand, lower revenue, job losses, decreased demand."
Most of the decline in employment during November was accounted for by job losses at medium-sized companies, which registered a 130,000-job decline. Meanwhile, large businesses cut 41,000 jobs in November. Small businesses cut 79,000 jobs during the month.
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) seems like an awfully nice company. It is extending its holiday vacation period from one week to two. Think of all the time that its workers can spend going to the beach, skiing, or spending time in the bosoms of their families.
Of, course, big companies are never that nice without a motive. HP figures it can save money by being shut an extra week. According toThe Wall Street Journal, The Palo Alto, Calif., tech giant notified employees last week that it would extend its normal weeklong holiday shutdown to two weeks to "achieve significant operational savings."
The move may save some expense, but it is also short-sighted. HP has the capital to stay open for the latter part of December and its has a chance to use that time to continue R&D, product development, sales and marketing. Working on its line of hardware and software and reaching out to customers during a period when it is trying to keep revenue up is more important than saving part of one week's costs.
As the recession takes hold, market share will become critical to keep up revenue. HP will be locked in competition for a shrinking revenue pie as companies like IBM (NYSE: IBM) try to take away business.
Given how bad the tech landscape is, HP should keep some of its people working straight through the holidays right up to the end of the year.
Because so much of the recent market volatility has been tied to announcements of employment numbers, consumer credit, and other such economic data, here's a look at the schedule for some of the economic data to be released the week of November 3, 2008.
Unemployment in September was 6.1%. That is higher than the 5% or so where it was late last year. But it is not a recession level. During the downturn that began in 1973, the number was closer to 9%.
It is clear that the pace of lay-offs is accelerating. Xerox (NYSE: XRX) laid off 5% of its staff. Rumors are that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) will cut 10%. Given that these companies are at different ends of the spectrum of the U.S. economy, the news speaks volumes.
According toReuters, "As companies look at their prospects for the final quarter of the year and begin to see increasingly grim outlooks for 2009, they are cutting jobs from many different parts of their businesses."
Total employment in the U.S. is about 144 million people. That means if unemployment rise another 3%, another 4.5 million people could be out of work.
Leaving aside the human suffering, the amount of money the government would have to pay to support these people would be incredible. That number of people out of work would also increase foreclosures, credit card and auto defaults.
Looked at through the prism of the work force the recession is going to be very deep and very long.
The federal government has done virtually everything it can to solve the current credit and liquidity crisis. But even today's decision by the Federal Reserve to buy commercial paper did not get much reaction.
Going through the list, the Treasury is providing the FDIC capital for covering deposits in failing banks. It has set up its $700 billion "Paulson" fund. Bernanke has opened the emergency loan systems for banks and brokerage to the extent of making as much as $900 billion available. It may also cut rates.
Since the Dow is off 1,500 points in a month, it is safe to say that nothing done so far is cause for celebration.
What has been neglected over the last several months is the simple fact that Americans can still work. Burdened with debt, unable to make car payments and buy gas, and facing mortgages, they can still work. But if the economy snuffs out jobs in record numbers, the last wall defending the economy will have broken.
As the ever-increasing stench of socialism wafts from the halls of our legislative branch, one must take pause to wonder exactly how we got to where we are today economically. Yes, I know that there has been a lot of pausing and wondering going on lately. What ticks me off is that it seems that very few of those who are pausing and wondering seem to be able to form the words to express the reality of what they have determined to be true, which is: that the single most significant root cause for today's economic dilemma is the erosion of income for the American middle class private sector.
For the purposes of this piece, I'll state that I consider the "middle class" to be those workers who earn between $14,000 and $125,000 per year. That covers just about every worker from entry level manufacturing to first tier management. We create the bulk of real wages that move throughout this country. We also pay virtually all of the taxes in this country. Never mind that corporations pay huge sums in corporate taxes every year, because the fact of the matter is, they collect those sums from us at the consumer level. Yes, we pay those corporate tax bills, and we know it.
There was a double play in economic reports this morning, and the news was not good. CPI and Initial Jobless Claims both came in higher than expected. Equity futures turned negative across the board after the news was released.
CPI was expected to come in at 0.4% but came in at 0.8% for July. This was still less than the 1.1% number for June. The problem is that Core CPI was 0.3%, ahead of the 0.2% that was expected. This was the same as the 0.3% reported for June and indicates that inflation is not limited only to oil and is working its way into the system.
There was no relief on the employment front either. Initial jobless claims for the week came in at 450,000, which were ahead of expectations. This was down slightly from the prior week but still indicates an extremely weak employment situation.
The focus now shifts to oil, which has recently experienced a substantial decline from its recent peak price. If oil prices continue to decrease, or at least stabilize at this lower price, it takes pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Fed realizes that the U.S. economy is far too fragile to raise rates. As long as oil prices remain tame, the Fed can minimize the recent CPI numbers and claim inflationary pressures are easing.
However, if oil rallies again, the Fed is in a very uncomfortable position. In addition, a rise in oil prices would not only increase inflationary pressures but also weaken an already battered consumer. For these reasons, the focus is now on oil!
The U.S. economy lost another 51,000 jobs in June, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday, a figure that suggests the world's largest economy continues to slow, but has not seen -- so far -- the massive job losses that have accompanied previous slowdowns/recessions.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in July -- the highest rate in four years.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the U.S. economy to shed 72,000 jobs and the unemployment to remain the same at 5.6% in July.
Further, June was the U.S. economy's sixth straight monthly job loss and brings total job losses in 2008 to 463,000, the Labor Department said.
Not good news, but not horrible, either
Economist Glen Langan took pains to underscore that the July jobs report was not good news, even as he, and perhaps other economists as well, were somewhat relieved that the July jobs report was not a debacle.
"It's by no means a strong report, as it continues to show a difficult job market, but it isn't a totally awful report either," Langan said.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says improving macro trends were ignored Thursday.
Tough day.
I could tell from the way the bears gang-tackled the market at the end of the day that they were simply motivated, using all the futures and ETFs at their disposal, to knock down the market after its tremendous run.
They were backed by odd bedfellows: terrible earnings from Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) and more miserable action in the big industrials -- action so horrid that you would actually think something was happening.
In truth, the oils are acting so poorly that they are freaking people out. I think we are in the "you can't have it both ways" moment where you can't hate it when the oils go up and hate it when the oils go down.
It's a big industry, and its coincident plays of ag and mining feel the pain, too. But oil's pain is now a real gain for everything from the transports to the soft goods. So there should have been a modicum of cheering.
The Street wasn't buying that pricing is up and margins are up courtesy of the collapse in oil, and that's a trend I suspect will continue.
Non-farm private employment decreased 79,000 in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, ADP announced Wednesday in the ADP National Employment Report. (pdf)
Meanwhile, the May estimated change in employment was revised down 15,000 to a gain of 25,000 jobs, ADP said.
In the June jobs report, employment in the service-providing sector fell 3,000, its first declined since November 2002. The goods-producing sector declined 76,000, and manufacturing employment fell 44,000, their 19th and 22nd consecutive monthly declines, respectively.
Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, rose just 7,000 during the month, while employment at large businesses with more than 500 workers declined 51,000. Jobs at medium sized business, with 50-499 employees, decreased 35,000.
Non-farm, private employment increased by 40,000 in May on a seasonally-adjusted basis, ADP announced Wednesday in the ADP National Employment Report. (pdf)
Meanwhile, the April 2008 estimated change in employment was revised up 3,000 to a gain of 13,000 jobs, ADP (NYSE: ADP) said.
The service sector of the economy added 77,000 jobs, while employment in the goods-producing sector declined 37,000 - - its 18th consecutive monthly decline.
Most of the decline in employment during May was accounted for by job losses at large companies, which registered an 18,000-job decline. Meanwhile, small businesses added 61,000 jobs and medium-sized business cut 3,000 jobs.
Conditions in two economic sectors hard hit by the slumping housing sector - - construction and financial activities - - continued to deteriorate. Construction employment fell 13,000 - - its 18th consecutive monthly decline - - bringing the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in August 2006 to 298,000. Employment in financial activities declined 5,000, its third straight monthly decline.
Economic Analysis: In general, a surprisingly upbeat ADP job report. The 40,000 job gain wasn't nearly enough to keep unemployment from rising, but at least it wasn't a decline. However, economists caution that one should not read too much into the monthly ADP job report, due to its limited scope (private sector payrolls). The more-telling indicator is the U.S. Labor Department's monthly payroll statistic, and May 2008's data will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT. That report is expected to show a 60,000-job decline, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
Non-farm private employment increased 10,000 in April 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, Automatic Data Processing announced Wednesday in the ADP National Employment Report (pdf).
Meanwhile, the March 2008 estimated change in employment was revised down 5,000 to a gain of 3,000 jobs, ADP said.
In the April 2008 job report, employment in the service sector grew 64,000, while the goods-producing sector declined 54,000, its 17th consecutive monthly decline. Manufacturing employment fell 26,000 in April 2008, its 20th consecutive monthly decline.
Economist Peter Dawson called the April 2008 report "a qualified, very modest, positive surprise. At least it wasn't negative."
Non-farm U.S. private employment increased just 8,000 in March 2008 (pdf) on a seasonally adjusted basis, ADP announced Wednesday. Meanwhile, the February 2008 estimated change in employment was revised up 5,000 to a loss of 18,000 jobs, ADP said.
Unlike February 2008, the March 2008 employment weakness was concentrated among larger businesses in the goods-producing sector.
The service sector of the economy added 85,000 jobs, while employment in the goods-producing sector declined 77,000 -- its sixteenth consecutive monthly decline. Manufacturing employment fell 58,000 in March 2008.
Most of the decline in employment during March 2008 was accounted for by job losses at large companies, which registered a 52,000 job decline. Meanwhile, small businesses added 55,000 jobs in March 2008, after adding a revised 16,000 in February 2008.
Also, construction employment fell 22,000 -- its sixteenth consecutive monthly decline -- bringing the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in August 2006 to 259,000. Employment in financial activities was flat for the month.
Economic Analysis: In general, a poor job report. The March 2008 statistic wasn't gloomy, but it wasn't rosy either. It was tepid, which is still net negative for the U.S. economy. The 55,000 gain in employment at small businesses was impressive, but it wasn't nearly enough to create overall job gains necessary to keep unemployment from rising. The March 2008 ADP report provides further evidence of a comprehensive U.S. economic slowdown.
So you've been on the job for three years but the boss won't cut you a raise. Is that your problem, friend? Perhaps the solution to your problem rests in your own hands. If you can prove you're deserving of a raise in salary and you take the appropriate steps to get one, an increase in taxable income just might be in your future. Take a look at the following informative video to gain some insight on effective paycheck building strategy. If you employ the tactics discussed in this video, and you still can't get a raise, it might be time to seek a new employer. I believe that you have every right to expect appropriate compensation for exemplary job performance, even if that means getting it from a new company.
Non-farm private employment declined 23,000 in February 2008 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, ADP announced Wednesday in the ADP National Employment Report (pdf).
The February 2008 23,000-job-reduction contained a deceleration in employment growth across businesses of all sizes, ADP (NYSE: ADP) said. The service sector of the economy saw an increase of 47,000 jobs, while employment in the goods-producing sector declined 70,000, its 15th consecutive monthly decline. Manufacturing employment fell 40,000 in February 2008 after declining a revised 3,000 in January 2008.
Most of the decline in employment during February 2008 was accounted for by job losses at large companies, but there was a notable deceleration of employment growth at businesses of all sizes, ADP said. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, advanced just 15,000 during the month, while employment among medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers dropped 4,000. This was the first outright decline at medium-size businesses since June 2003 when job growth was still recovering from the last recession. Employment at large businesses with more than 500 workers declined 34,000.
Conditions in two economic sectors hard hit by the slumping housing sector -- construction and financial activities -- continued to deteriorate in February 2008. Construction employment fell 30,000 -- its 15th consecutive monthly decline -- bringing the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in August 2006 to 236,000. Employment in financial activities declined by 5,000.
Economic Analysis: Although not a large monthly job loss, the broad-based decline suggests near-spectrum-wide weakness in the U.S. economy, with housing's doldrums continuing to take a toll. Further, the fact that small businesses as well as larger companies are reducing payrolls provides further evidence of the comprehensive of the slowdown.
Nonfarm private employment decreased an enormous 250,000 in November (pdf) on a seasonally adjusted basis, ADP announced Wednesday.
The federal government has done virtually everything it can to solve the current credit and liquidity crisis. But even today's decision by the Federal Reserve to buy commercial paper did not get much reaction.
As the ever-increasing stench of socialism wafts from the halls of our legislative branch, one must take pause to wonder exactly how we got to where we are today economically. Yes, I know that there has been a lot of pausing and wondering going on lately. What ticks me off is that it seems that very few of those who are pausing and wondering seem to be able to form the words to express the reality of what they have determined to be true, which is: that the single most significant root cause for today's economic dilemma is the erosion of income for the American middle class private sector.
Non-farm private employment decreased 79,000 in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, ADP announced Wednesday in the ADP National Employment Report. 
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