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The sole energy value (for now): Natural gas

Want to hear about one bright spot on the energy horizon? It's natural gas, for now, at least.

While oil's price has soared in 2007, natural gas' price has actually declined -- you heard that right, declined -- in 2007, from $8.90 / million btu on Dec. 31 2006 to $7.93 / million btu as of Nov. 12, 2007.

In fact, on a per energy unit basis - - or how much energy one can buy for a $1 - - natural gas is about half the price of oil. That's good news for utilities that operate natural gas-fired electric generation plants and homeowners who heat by gas. The situation represents an energy-sector turnabout, of sorts: in 2005, scarce gas supplies and a cold winter caused natural gas prices to spike well above the energy-equivalent price for oil. Homeowners who heated by gas - - most of whom could not switch quickly to another energy form - - were hit especially hard that year.

What's driving the oil/natural gas energy split? Independent Energy Trader Jim Dietz told BloggingsStocks that natural gas' lack of portability is a big factor. Unlike oil, natural gas isn't transported from hemisphere-to-hemisphere the way oil is: i..e. oil can go wherever the global market says the price is highest, Dietz said. Natural gas is consumed regionally. Hence, when regional demand is high, "that leads to quicker price rises for natural gas, but also when demand drops, quicker price reductions," he said. The latter is the case now, he said.

Dietz cautions that a hot summer in the U.S. could quickly reverse the current trend, so homeowners "should not consider natural gas the permanent energy winner, when deciding to heat by natural gas or oil, if they have the choice." "Solar, wind, the home's efficiency rating, and the availability of an energy form in your area of the country" should also be considered, Dietz added.

Senate passes diluted energy bill - will Bush veto?

In 1908, a Ford Model-T traveled 25 miles on a gallon of gasoline. In an attempt to return to those halcyon days, the U.S. voted late Thursday night to pass a new energy bill that sets lofty CAFE goals for the American car fleet.

Along with mandating a fleet average of 35 mpg by 2020 and energy-efficient appliances and lights, the measure will require the fuel industry to raise ethanol production to 36 billion gallons by 2022. Slightly less than 5 billion gallons were produced in 2006.

The first engine to use ethanol as a fuel was built in 1826.

In recognition of the damage to the nation's grain crop prices that increased ethanol production would wreak if it were based on corn, the measure mandates that most of that increase come from cellulose (think wood pulp).

The auto industry, in an embarrassing admission of its continuing inability to forecast consumer demand (if you remember its attitude about the Volkswagen Beetle in the 1960's, you know what I mean), was prepared to filibuster the bill, but the Senate was able to garner enough votes to override. However, the Republicans were able to use this lever to pry out of the bill language that would have taxed the petroleum industry to create a fund a program promoting fuel efficiency. They also were successful in removing a requirement that 15% of the nation's electricity be generated via windmills, solar power and the like.

President Bush's approval on the bill is still in question, though, as he opposes many of the measures including one allowing the government to punish companies found guilty of price-gouging.

In many arenas, the Republican and Democratic parties have little to distinguish between them, but this bill sharply differentiates their approach to the energy problem. This compromise seems to me seems, a strong vote for more of the same policies that have maintained the status quo for generations.

Color Kinetics beginning to light up

An innovator in LED (light emitting diode) lighting and display, Color Kinetics (Nasdaq: CLRK) may, after 10 years in business, begin to gain some momentum if recent earnings are any indication. 1Q 2007 revenue increased 28% to $18.8 million, so this is a small company. The big news, however, is that GAAP net income increased 697%, not a typo, to $1.5 million or diluted EPS of $0.07, up from 1Q 2006 net income of $188,000 or $0.01 diluted EPS. Non-GAAP net income was $2.3 million, from which $814,000 went to stock-based compensation.

Gross margins improved to 55%. More importantly, Color Kinetics signed 12 new licensing agreements, several of them huge customers such as Ford Motor Company. As a result of landing new big clients, licensing revenue was up 88%. Color Kinetics is living up to its reputation as a lighting innovator, receiving 7 patents in 1Q 2007 alone. This stock may catch some momentum, as the company is flexible and innovative enough to respond quickly to market demand, has a demonstrated record of technical expertise in its field, and can offer clients a necessary product, lighting, that is much more energy efficient, longer lasting, lower maintenance than most current products.

2Q 2007 revenues are forecast in the range of $20-$21 million, with GAAP net income between $0.05-$0.07 per share.The stock closed recently at $27.48, down $0.19.

GE throws light on incandescent bulb ban movement

Just as concern about the energy inefficiency of incandescent light bulbs (the ones we are most used to) has inspired a world-wide movement to ban them in favor of compact fluorescent lights (CFL), General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) announced a breakthrough that changes the equation. Its Consumer and Industrial Lighting division has developed an incandescent bulb that will match fluorescent lamp's power miserliness while retaining the quality of light customers are used to.

The high efficiency incandescent (HEI) lamp could also reduce CO² emissions by 40 million tons in the U.S., and the company claims they will also cost less than comparable compact fluorescent lights.

A grass-roots campaign to ban the incandescent light bulb, called the 18Seconds Movement (the average time it takes to change a light bulb is 18 seconds) is supported by entities such as Greenpeace, Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT), the EPA and the U.S. Department of Energy. Australia has already passed legislation banning incandescent lamps by 2012.

Either way, HEI or CFL, GE is well positioned with lines of products, but this could certainly slow down the rush to legislation worldwide.

For me, CFLs are headache-producers, so if they want my old-fashioned bulbs they'll have to pry my hot, dead fingers from the filaments.

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 08:42 AM

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