energy strategist posts
FeedPosted May 27th 2009 1:00PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Newsletters, Canada, Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
"Canadian energy giants Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU) and PetroCanada (NYSE: PCZ) announced their intention to merge; Suncor, a holding in our 'Wildcatters Portfolio' will be the surviving entity," says Elliott Gue.
In his The Energy Strategist, he explains, "The combined firm will be the fifth-largest energy company in North America and the largest in Canada." Here, he explains why the new stock remains a buy.
"The combined firm will have more financial flexibility than Suncor did on its own. Debt ratios will be healthier, and the combined firm will also be able to redirect certain planned capital expenditures to higher return potential projects.
Continue reading Suncor (SU): A merger 'made in Canada'
Posted Apr 30th 2009 2:00PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Newsletters, Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
Energy sector specialist Elliott Gue sees opportunity in Transocean (NYSE: RIG), a leadin player in the deepwater drilling area. Here's the latest advice from The Energy Strategist.
"The market for deepwater rigs, however, has remained resilient and one drilling with direct leverage to deepwater rigs is US giant, Transocean, the world's largest offshore drilling company, with 136 rigs as well as ten under construction.
"Roughly 68 of those rigs are 'semisubmersibles,' and 39 are ultra-deepwater or deepwater rigs capable of drilling many of the complex plays being targeted around the world today.
Continue reading Transocean (RIG): Drilling for deepwater gains
Posted Feb 16th 2009 4:00PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Newsletters, Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
"Long term, supply remains the key issue to watch in the crude oil market; depressed prices continue to force producers to scale back on exploration and development spending," says energy expert Elliott Gue.
In The Energy Strategist, he says, "I watch oil service giant Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) as a gauge of overall health in energy markets; it has its hands in just about every imaginable oil- or gas-producing market on the planet."
"Schlumberger's fourth quarter earnings release and conference call were far and away the most bearish from the company in at least five years.
"CEO Andrew Gould was notably downbeat, particularly during the analysts' question and answer (Q&A) session. Predictably, earnings estimates have plummeted since that call.
Continue reading Schlumberger: 'Best of breed' in oil services
Posted Jan 9th 2009 12:30PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Middle East, Best Stocks for 2009
This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.
Italy's Eni SPA ADR (NYSE: E) has one of the most successful and fastest-growing E&P operations of any major integrated energy firm," says energy expert Elliott Gue.
In his The Energy Strategist, he notes, "And despite its defensive characteristics, Eni offers an impressive 8.5%, the highest of the large integrated oils."
"ENI derives close to three-quarters of its operating income from exploration and production (E&P) and just 3.8% from refining and marketing.
"Thus, Eni has more leverage to E&P than most large integrated energy firms and less exposure to refining margins. The company's other main business is gas and power, accounting for close to 22% of operating income.
"Eni has one of the most successful and fastest-growing E&P operations of any major integrated energy firm. In the third quarter, Eni's production grew to 1.764 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), up 6.3% over the same quarter a year ago, the fastest growth of any integrated firm in my coverage universe.
"And Eni has a large number of new projects scheduled to come onstream over the next three years that are poised to power further production growth.
Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: Eni (E)
Posted Nov 21st 2008 10:35AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Newsletters, Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
"Valuations for even the best-placed, most well-established companies in the energy space are sitting at levels unseen since the late 1990s when oil prices collapsed to around $10 per barrel," says energy sector specialist Elliott Gue.
Here, the editor of The Energy Strategist looks at Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), noting, "The firm active in just about every imaginable market and I regard the company as a top-notch indicator of ongoing trends in the oil services business."
"It's clear that there's been some slowing in demand, and the credit crunch has had an impact on the fundamental business. But the reaction in the stock market over the past three months goes well beyond even a worst-case scenario.
"Bottom line: Many energy-related stocks are pricing in a severe recession and recent action in the broader markets is reminiscent of sentiment characteristically seen near market lows. The short-term outlook for the energy patch is much better now than it was during the bear market in 1998 and 2002.
"I regard Schlumberger as a top-notch indicator of ongoing trends in the oil services business and, more broadly, international oil and gas drilling activity. I always pay close attention to what Schlumberger has to say in its conference calls and, as usual, this quarter's call was instructive.
Continue reading Schlumberger (SLB): Drilling for value
Posted Aug 5th 2008 11:30AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, US Airways Group (LCC), Oil, Delta Air Lines (DAL), Stocks to Buy
"If there's one sector that stands to benefit handsomely from a further slide in oil or, at least, a moderation in crude's rally: the airlines," explains energy sector expert Elliott Gue.
In The Energy Strategist, he says, "Airlines may make a terrible long-term investment but can be an outstanding short-term trade." Here he looks at Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and, for the even more speculatively-inclined, US Airways (NYSE: LCC).
"Some investors will rightfully cringe from any mention of this sector; after all, the airlines have consistently lost money throughout their post-deregulation history.
"Most of the majors have declared bankruptcy on multiple occasions since that time. However, we've traded the airlines on a few occasions; we took some triple-digit percentage gains in the airlines back in 2005.
"The airlines' leverage to oil prices is well known. Expectations are so low, in fact, that several major air carriers actually managed to beat consensus expectations in the second quarter.
"And although sentiment is already at rock-bottom, there's a real basis for cautious optimism. First, if I'm right about oil, fuel costs won't rise appreciably in the third quarter. This huge headwind is dissipating.
Continue reading Speculative flyers: Delta (DAL) and US Airways (LCC)
Posted Jun 19th 2008 12:15PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Valero Energy (VLO), Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
Although he has been maintaining a cautious stance on the refining group, energy sector expert Elliott Gue is now boosting the rating on Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO).
In his The Energy Strategist, the advisor explains, "Valero is now attractive for three reasons: superior geographic exposure, refinery complexity and a new focus on profitability."
"Our caution on the refining group was due to expectations that crack spreads would be weak through the spring, a period during which spreads tend to widen. Overall, this call was correct: Refiners have underperformed the energy patch since mid-March.
"And longer term, I have some concerns about new refining capacity expansions due to come online over the next few years. As this supply comes online, it could put downside pressure on margins.
"But over the next six to nine months, the refiners look like a compelling play. Gasoline inventories are now back in line with seasonal norms; it's likely gasoline prices will now rally further relative to crude oil. In fact, we're already seeing an obvious spike in crack spreads.
Continue reading Valero (VLO): Ready for a refinery rebound?
Posted May 30th 2008 11:30AM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Newsletters, Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
"One of my favorite indicators for the energy markets is the quarterly conference calls and earnings releases from Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)," says energy sector expert Elliott Gue.
In his The Energy Strategist, he explains, "In this quarter's call, Schlumberger's management team was notably upbeat, the most positive on industry growth expectations in more than a year. This is a key shift in sentiment that has broader implications for the energy patch at large."
"Schlumberger's reports and conference calls have proved extraordinarily useful in the past for determining the most profitable trends and investment themes. The reason for that is simple: Schlumberger is the largest oilfield services company and has its hand in just about every imaginable market all over the world.
"In addition, the company has traditionally offered long, detailed conference calls; CEO Andrew Gould often relates far more than the outlook for Schlumberger and offers considerable color and detail concerning trends for the industry in general.
"This quarter's conference call was no exception. Schlumberger's outlook this quarter was far more upbeat than in its third and fourth quarter 2007 earnings calls.
Continue reading Schlumberger (SLB): A 'deepwater' buy
Posted Dec 21st 2007 3:30PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2008
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My favorite conservative recommendation for 2008 is Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP)," says Elliott Gue, editor of The Energy Strategist.
"Kinder has four basic business lines: oil pipelines and terminals, carbon dioxide (CO2) pipelines, natural gas pipelines and refined products pipes.
"Refined products pipelines are among the most stable assets a firm can own. Typically, they're dedicated to servicing a particular group of refineries, and volumes tend to grow at a slow but predictable rate over time. In Kinder's case, this is a simple, fee-based business. The company owns the valuable Plantation Pipeline that carries refined products from Gulf Coast refineries to the Mid-Atlantic.
"And the company's Pacific Pipeline carries refined products west to California. The West Coast is one area of the US that's chronically short of refining capacity. Pipelines carrying refined products from the Gulf are the only way California keeps moving.
Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Pipeline profits from Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP)
Posted Sep 18th 2007 2:46PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: India, China, Newsletters, BHP Billiton Ltd ADR (BHP), Bargain Stocks, Commodities, Stocks to Buy
"BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) should be part of any investor's portfolio," says leading energy and resources expert Elliott Gue. The editor of The Energy Strategist explains, "China is both the world's largest coal producer and its preeminent consumer. Demand for coal in Asia is growing rapidly, and China is moving from being an important net exporter to a net importer."
In light of the tight supply demand balance in Asia, he states that the obvious question is where all those coal imports will come from. One country he says that will dominate the export trade for the foreseeable future is Australia.
Gue says, "Australia has large reserves and production capabilities. And it is located relatively close to their key export markets. Meanwhile, Australia is a politically stable country with a solid legal system and a large, liquid stock market. In short: Australia is a great and politically safe place to invest."
Australian-based BHP Billiton is the world's largest producer of exported thermal and coking coal, generating around 37 million tons of met coal and 88 million tons of thermal coal annually, according to the advisor.
Continue reading BHP Billiton (BHP): 'A global resource play for any portfolio'
Posted May 29th 2007 6:50PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters
Shallow water contract driller Hercules Offshore (NASDAQ: HERO) is the latest addition to the speculative "Advantage Portfolio" developed by Elliott Gue for the Personal Finance newsletter.
The company operates primarily in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Gue points out that in the shallow Gulf waters, the most common type of drilling rig is what's known as a jackup. These, he notes, consist of a platform attached to four or more legs that rest on the sea floor and are used to drill in water up to a few hundred feet deep.
Gue says, "Most oil and gas producers don't own their own rigs. Rather, these rigs are leased from contract drillers like Hercules for a fee known as a day-rate. Hercules currently owns nine jackup rigs and a fleet of boats used to maintain wells and platforms."
The company, he notes, is in the process of acquiring Todco, a firm with a fleet of 24 jackup rigs and 27 inland barge rigs used for even shallower water drilling. In the wake of this acquisition, Gue notes, Hercules will be a dominant contract driller in the shallow-water Gulf.
Continue reading Hercules: Strong play on natural gas
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